ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

The trough moving down from the Carolina's is supposed to be across central Florida by Monday so how will that affect the outcome of 96L

Are you talking about a surface trough? It has to be because we will be more of influence by the mid level ridge not by a mid level trough which tends to influence more tropical cyclones, so in another words the surface trough will not be much on an influence if 93L by then should had strengthen, IMO.

[tropicwatch]

The trough moving down from the Carolina's is supposed to be across central Florida by Monday so how will that affect the outcome of 96L

Right now it looks like the high over the GOM is keeping the front east of Florida as it dives south.

[hectopascal]

Expect it will be developing before it reaches eastern Cuba.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

An analog storm could be Erin 1995 in that that one didn't do anything until it pulled away from Hispaniola and then that one went to town, this one looks very similar at the same point so this still has to be watched

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

As each new frame of visible picture comes in on high resolution the more I am starting to think that it looks like it will be getting an LLC quicker than I thought.

[ronjon]

Longwave trof axis almost seems to be east of 96 L now on water vapor but could be reloading based on impulses from the north.

[boca]

My question is how will this trough that is moving towards 96L affect it's movement of either heading towards Florida or up and out to sea

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the WV satellite loop, you can definitely see the trough beginning to dig southward along and off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

If this trend continues, I have to believe the EURO has been right all along this week with depicting the trough being strong enough to capture 96L early next week and take it out to sea away from Florida and hopefully awayoff the U.S. East Coast. The EURO has never waivered in depicting a rather strong trough in each of its runs all week long.

[tolakram]

Live visible. I think I see the LLC forming just off the north coast.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

[ronjon]

Boca, my feeling is if the system stays weak over the next few days and an eventual loc forms down around 20-21 deg north, It'll be far enough west of the trof to miss it.

[boca]

Boca, my feeling is if the system stays weak over the next few days and an eventual loc forms down around 20-21 deg north, It'll be far enough west of the trof to miss it.

It's going to be so close because it's digging and I read the NWS discussion out of Melbourne and that trough is supposed to be across central Florida and it will be a race on the speed of 96L to the west or the trough will start tucking on it poleward

[cycloneye]

Now,this is super interesting from plane.Pressure now down to 1003.4 mbs.

125300 2056N 07202W 9879 00137 0034 +245 +229 095018 018 017 002 00

[tropicwatch]

Now,this is super interesting from plane.Pressure now down to 1003.4 mbs.

125300 2056N 07202W 9879 00137 0034 +245 +229 095018 018 017 002 00

That is pretty wild!

[ronjon]

Still very poorly organized this am. Nothing appears to be developing in the immediate future as the mass slowly moves W-NW.

[NDG]

Recon is finding very lower pressures south of the Turks and Caicos, north of the coast of Haiti, 1004mb. Where clearly on high resolution visible satellite loop it appears a broad surface circulation is forming.

[boca]

The trough is starting to influence 96L look at the clouds north of Hispaniola being pulled north into the trough

[hectopascal]

An analog storm could be Erin 1995 in that that one didn't do anything until it pulled away from Hispaniola and then that one went to town, this one looks very similar at the same point so this still has to be watched

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Thats how Alyono see's it he posted that in the models discussion.

[tolakram]

Still very poorly organized this am. Nothing appears to be developing in the immediate future as the mass slowly moves W-NW.

I'm thinking the center of circulation is just now coming off shore and we might see some decent development later today.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Well, with pressures being that low already, it just goes to show the potential of this system to really ramp up when it finally does tighten up a COC.

[StormingB81]

Still see that it still doesnt now where it wants to go. Going to head to the store anyways to pick up some things just in case...1) rather beat the crowd) and 2)if not put it away for the next time