ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The center looks to be at 70.5 and 20 moving wnw

I'd say 70.7W 20.6N

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

more like 71.5W based upon the aircraft

[jlauderdal]

He's a idiot it he said that

he was in sofla for a number of years, moved away and is now back..surprised a guy with hurricane experience would say that when the gfs runs are showing a sofla strike..that wasnt very smart....waiting for our old pal john morales to throw his tweets into this mess..he sounded the all clear for florida early with bertha and was right

[hectopascal]

I put it flush over the island now.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[ninel conde]

looks to be moving too fast for any real development.

[Alyono]

looks to be moving too fast for any real development.

13 kts is too fast?

[HeeBGBz]

What's to keep this storm from continuing its current path wnw.? I keep hearing about the turn north but to me it seems more likely to shoot the Florida straits and into the gulf. TWC has mentioned everything but that possibility.

[Hurricaneman]

There really isn't much shear but Hispaniola is in the way of development right now but later today this will have a better chance

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

WV image showing the players...it does appear the trough is starting to dig more off the U.S. east coast. We also see a narrow gap of ridging between the trough and 96L. Big High over Southern U.S:

[wxman57]

I see no trace of an LLC on recon reports. Straight easterly winds all along 20.5N from 70.5W to 72.5W. If any LLC is forming, it's south of 20.5N.

[Alyono]

There really isn't much shear but Hispaniola is in the way of development right now but later today this will have a better chance

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It's only going through a strong shear axis right now

[NDG]

The center looks to be at 70.5 and 20 moving wnw

That's mid level circulation, is not at the surface.

[Hurricaneman]

I see no trace of an LLC on recon reports. Straight easterly winds all along 20.5N from 70.5W to 72.5W. If any LLC is forming, it's south of 20.5N.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Recon12ZAug23.JPG

Recon might need to go down to literally the coast of Hispaniola to see if there is something closed IMO

[gatorcane]

Local met Roland Steadham just said that they are confident that the storm should stay well east of Florida. What does he see that we don't?

I think he is looking at the NHC 5-day outlook to make that statement, however, it is important to note that is not a cone or a forecast path but where development would happen within the next 5 days:

[cycloneye]

So far no strong winds have been found and as 57 said no LLC so far,only some lower pressures.

[Alyono]

it's hard to even find a wave axis this morning. Probably 24 or even 36 hours away from genesis given this unexpected overnight development

[boca]

On water vapor the trough is digging like the euro is showing and could be enough to pull 96L north before it gets to Florida

[NDG]

I am starting to see a couple of eddys rotating around a larger surface circulation/trough axis, but no signs of an LLC on high resolution zoomed in vis sat loop so far.
BTW, the trough axis is clearly seen west of the mid level circulation.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2014082312, , BEST, 0, 201N, 709W, 35, 1007, DB

[boca]

The trough moving down from the Carolina's is supposed to be across central Florida by Monday so how will that affect the outcome of 96L