ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

It is looking more that Sunday will be the day when 96L wil foinally be able to get its act together. Right now, 96L is interacting with Hispaniola and won't pull together until it can get farther away from that mountainous terrain. Also, I think the spin near 20N and 70W is where the potential LLC is at this time.

Once it gets in the Bahamas firmly late today and tonight, steady development will commence. Also, it seems to my eyes that 96L has slowed its forward motion some *s it is tangled interacting with Hispaniola.

Not an official forecast of course. Just the opinion of this poster.

any LLC is west of 70... well west based upon the prelim aircraft data. May even be west of 71W

[cycloneye]

Plane closing on LLC. Pressure so far down to 1006.8 mbs.

[Frank2]

There's still the ULL to it's west and the trough to it's north is now interacting with 96L's outflow so to speak, and the system is interacting with the mountains, so nothing yet and explains the windshield wiper effect per each model run:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[xironman]

Plane closing on LLC. Pressure so far down to 1006.8 mbs.

Looks like it will be close to 71W

[cycloneye]

Plane closing on LLC. Pressure so far down to 1006.8 mbs.

Looks like it will be close to 71W

West of 71W.

[cycloneye]

Now west of 72W.

[northjaxpro]

OK 72 degrees longitude is where it is I suppose. My euyes deceived me I guess. That's why I emphasize estimated position. I also believe 96L should start to slow down a bit more during the next 24 hours.

[NDG]

You guys think there's an LLC? Me don't think so by looking at the hr visible satellite loop so far this morning, I think it went inland last night, it will have to redevelop one during the day today as the whole system moves away from Hispaniola.

[cycloneye]

You guys think there's an LLC? Me don't think so by looking at the hr visible satellite loop so far this morning, I think it went inland last night, it will have to redevelop one during the day today as the whole system moves away from Hispaniola.

Plane has not found any wind shift yet so you may be right.

[hectopascal]

[NDG]

By the way, the Turks & Caicos are reporting nothing but E & E-SE winds, the surface trough axis is well west.

[Alyono]

its not west of 72

it's around 71.5

The pressure has decreased. However, the wave axis has become less defined based upon the preliminary data

This may be 24 hours or more away from genesis at this rate. Plus, it is underneath the shear axis

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery indicates that a surface circulation could be
organizing near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic in
association with the area of disturbed weather near Hispaniola. This
system continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity, and
environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a
tropical depression or tropical storm today or Sunday. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.

This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near
the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas
on Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to continue over
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical storm force and
heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central Bahamas through
Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico. Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical
storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance
notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[alienstorm]

Good Morning, well it seems to me that the weak Low (LLC) went inland along the northern Hispaniola coast overnight. This means that we will need to wait until later today to determine where the center forms and it should come out or reform between Great Iguana, Northwest Haiti and Southeast Cuba. At that point we will see it develop into a Tropical Storm and eventual Hurricane.

Now as far as the models are concern this will cause more of a westward shift since in all likelihood it will miss the connection with the tough, so expect a track between Florida the Bahamas and Cuba with a turn to the west into the Gulf. From there we will need to see how the environment sets up.

[Alyono]

I'd argue now that there may not be enough convective organization to warrant an upgrade. May be the same situation as 2 days ago when a closed low was found

[wzrgirl1]

Local met Roland Steadham just said that they are confident that the storm should stay well east of Florida. What does he see that we don't?

[stormlover2013]

He's a idiot it he said that

[Hurricaneman]

seems as though this is having big issues with Hispaniola and won't have a chance to do anything until it gets away, the inflow seems blocked from any circulation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

First visible shots, saved loop. Spin is evident north of Hispaniola (DR) and looks to be moving WNW:

[boca]

The center looks to be at 70.5 and 20 moving wnw