ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

shear and Hispañiola have really taken a toll on this. Very possible nothing forms until Sunday now

Or could dissipate very soon, right?

[Alyono]

shear and Hispañiola have really taken a toll on this. Very possible nothing forms until Sunday now

Or could dissipate very soon, right?

where do you get dissipation from? Nothing suggests that. Only delayed formation

[USTropics]

CIMSS showing lowering convergence right over the center for the first time tonight:

[ozonepete]

shear and Hispañiola have really taken a toll on this. Very possible nothing forms until Sunday now

Or could dissipate very soon, right?

where do you get dissipation from? Nothing suggests that. Only delayed formation

Oh, ok, I just thought from your posts that you felt this system keeps looking like it will develop but never delivers and won't deliver. I missed the part where you said it will develop by Sunday. My bad.

[ozonepete]

Here's the center. Too bad Aric isn't around to help verify this but he'll be around soon enough.

[hectopascal]

Here's the center. Too bad Aric isn't around to help verify this but he'll be around soon enough.

Just looks a tot centre is S of your mark i would thnk and more leeward.

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[chaser1]

I clearly see that LLC that's north of the coast, but I can't help but notice what appears to be an alternate point - perhaps the mid level COC (?) at 69.8 & 18.4. That point would place it right along the southern coastline. One would logically assume that the LLC - OVER WATER, might be better equipped to tap into that warm water and once and for all consolidate it's confused self??!! What a potential game changer though if a mid level vorticity parked over "the rock", we're to ultimately be the identity of this system.

[hectopascal]

Quite easy to see it. its not even close to that N area being pointed out.

[chaser1]

"Which" it? LOL

[Hammy]

Circulation is very evident on rapidscan in the vacinity of 20/70 or a little NW of there. All of the low clouds over the Dominican Republic are now out of the west. The question is whether it is at cloud level or the surface at this point.

[hectopascal]

Leeward need me to hold your and walk you to it.

[Nimbus]

The mid level circulation has historically appeared south of the LLC with this invest.
If 96L doesn't continue west of 70W it may drift inland over Hispaniola though.
The current trough off the mid atlantic coast is going negative tilt.

[Alyono]

mentioned this in the models thread

The environment does not appear as if it will favor rapid intensification. With the building high to the NW of the system, this would restrict the outflow.

This pattern favors gradual intensification. While this will likely become a hurricane, it likely will be along the lines of an Erin from 1995 not major hurricane

[HurriGuy]

sun coming up

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[cycloneye]

Plane flying this morning.Let's see if they find a closed LLC.

[xironman]

mentioned this in the models thread

The environment does not appear as if it will favor rapid intensification. With the building high to the NW of the system, this would restrict the outflow.

This pattern favors gradual intensification. While this will likely become a hurricane, it likely will be along the lines of an Erin from 1995 not major hurricane

I can see what you mean, but it does have a fairly decent UL anti-cyclone above it. Will be interesting to see once it departs from land.

[hectopascal]

[Alyono]

mentioned this in the models thread

The environment does not appear as if it will favor rapid intensification. With the building high to the NW of the system, this would restrict the outflow.

This pattern favors gradual intensification. While this will likely become a hurricane, it likely will be along the lines of an Erin from 1995 not major hurricane

I can see what you mean, but it does have a fairly decent UL anti-cyclone above it. Will be interesting to see once it departs from land.

Right now, its west of the upper high. Once in the Bahamas, shear drops off. However, the upper flow likely won't allow for the creation of multiple outflow channels. I suspect we will only have 1, which is more favorable for gradual intensification. Really need 2 or more for rapid intenification

[northjaxpro]

It is looking more that Sunday will be the day when 96L wil foinally be able to get its act together. Right now, 96L is interacting with Hispaniola and won't pull together until it can get farther away from that mountainous terrain. Also, I think the spin near 20N and 70W is where the potential LLC is at this time.

Once it gets in the Bahamas firmly late today and tonight, steady development will commence. Also, it seems to my eyes that 96L has slowed its forward motion some *s it is tangled interacting with Hispaniola.

Not an official forecast of course. Just the opinion of this poster.

[xironman]

Right now, its west of the upper high. Once in the Bahamas, shear drops off. However, the upper flow likely won't allow for the creation of multiple outflow channels. I suspect we will only have 1, which is more favorable for gradual intensification. Really need 2 or more for rapid intenification

Yeah the visual could be a bit deceiving with that ULL to the east http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24