EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Cold.

[supercane4867]

Craziest cloud tops I've seen in the WHEM for a while

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 70 knts now.

[somethingfunny]

It's gorgeous already

[supercane4867]

EP, 13, 2014082306, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1052W, 65, 992, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 0, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[hectopascal]

Marie lies in a near perfect region for development. It has low vertical wind shear, is attached to an active monsoonal trough and has excellent radial outflow. Marie will intensify and is likely to make it to Category 4.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Cyclenall]

Linda was one of the only two hurricanes to reach T8.0 on objective Dvorak analysis which topped the scale, another one was Gilbert in the Atlantic side

Something that would be interesting to compile would be warmest eye temperatures in each of these "most powerful" tropical cyclones and then compare that.

I hope we can get rapid scan satellite running for Marie's intensification!

Ditto.

ATCF revised down to 50 knts.

EP, 13, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1030W, 50, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 0, 70, 1012, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1030W, 50, 1000, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

Ouch. This was when Marie's appearance relating to the CDO started to degrade instead of rapidly swirl into an eye like Rick 09. The experts thought like all of us that around 10:00 am EDT the eye was in the process of showing up but it did that stupid delay (another burst took over) we often see so they realized 55 knots wasn't quite on tap. This was around 18:45 UTC (image King posted).

I think it may be in a slight phase of unarrested development right now. Still intensifying, but has a bit more banding than I'm use to.

Did you mean arrested development? That's what it really was last afternoon, which makes me irate . That would prompt me to lower the chances of EI slightly by 10% but it will likely still occur; I tend to rate it higher if there were no "mini-failures" to launch. % chance of RI remains the same in my mind.

For old time's sake, this would be a good time to post my thoughts on % chances for Marie (haven't done this in years ):

The following post is NOT an official forecast and/or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Tropical Storm Marie becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 99%
Category 2 Hurricane: 96%
Category 3 Hurricane: 85%
Category 4 Hurricane: 75%
Category 5 Hurricane: 47%
Windspeeds of around 150 knots: 38%
Windspeeds of around 160 knots: 12%
Windspeeds of around 170 knots: 1%

First % chance of Tropical Storm Marie strengthening (stacking):

Very slowly/None: 0.3%
Slowly: 15%
Moderately: 25%
Quickly: 50%
Rapidly: 80%
Very Rapidly: 67%
Record Breaking Rapid: 1.3%

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s and within it's lifetime, not within a specific time (such as 24-48 hours).

[euro6208]

13E MARIE 140823 0600 13.8N 105.2W EPAC 65 992

Hurricane Marie!

[euro6208]

[jaguarjace]

[supercane4867]

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie continues to quickly strengthen. Enhanced BD-curve infrared
imagery and a few microwave passes show significant improvement of
the inner core and outer rain band features. Embedded center
cloud tops continue to cool and are now around -82 degrees C. The
initial intensity is raised to 65 kt and is based on a compromise of
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an
objective ADT current intensity of 72 kt. The water is warm and the
shear is low, and this ripe environment is expected to remain
conducive for further significant strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS
continues to show Marie intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48
hours and the SHIPS RI Index indicates that the chance of a 35 kt
increase in winds during the next 24 hours is 4 times the sample
mean. The intensity forecast follows the SHIPS through day 3, then
sides with the IVCN consensus model as the cyclone traverses sub-26C
sea surface temperatures.

Marie continues toward the west-northwest and the initial motion is
estimated to be 285/11, similar to the climatological mean
for the eastern Pacific basin. Marie is forecast to move along the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over
the extreme eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States and
northern Mexico. The official NHC forecast is close to the previous
package and is hedged toward the TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[euro6208]

7th Hurricane in a row!

The WPAC had 8 typhoons in a row last year that ended with Haiyan and 2 other category 5...

Can the EPAC do the same although with less quality?

[euro6208]

[hectopascal]

7th Hurricane in a row!

The WPAC had 8 typhoons in a row last year that ended with Haiyan and 2 other category 5...

Can the EPAC do the same although with less quality?

cheeky

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Congratulations Marie!

[euro6208]

Mother Marie, We pray for you !

Would love a powerful fish

[euro6208]

06Z brings it down to 942 mb...

[Cyclenall]

After just becoming a bit larger with deep convection spreading while more cold cloud tops built near the center, the latest frame might be showing the first appearance of the eye with internal rapid motion occurring near the center:

[cycloneye]

Wilma type eye.

[euro6208]

It has a very similiar structure to Super Typhoon Parma back in 2009. Will the circulation center morph and display a pinhole?