EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Ptarmigan]

Whoa.

When I see a storm that shape, I can tell it is undergoing rapid intensification. I have seen with Wilma, Katrina, Rick, etc.

I would not be surprised if Marie is a Category 5 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Ptarmigan,not so fast. But yes,RI is going to be rapid once it starts.

[Kingarabian]

Microwave presentation doesn't quite support a hurricane, but it's almost there.

Microwave shows a very intense eyewall... capable of producing 65kt winds imo. ADT seems to be detecting a cloud filled eye as well.

[Ptarmigan]

Before and After of Wilma

[TheStormExpert]

No dout this should be upgraded to a hurricane @ 11pm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Wow,peak now is 125kts.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie appears to be on the verge of intensify rapidly. The cyclone
is in the process of developing a central dense overcast, consisting
of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands are also
present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is well
established, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensity
estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
UW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used to
set the initial intensity to 60 kt.

Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the
initial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
through 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side
of a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern
United States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track toward
the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the
western end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance is
generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast
is little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in
the guidance to the north this cycle.

The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day
or two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment
for strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea,
indicating a 54 0kelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during
the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above the upper
end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given the very
favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity
forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Then again,
it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics such as
eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from realizing its
full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie over sharply
lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening, even though
the shear should be relatively low. The intensity forecast late in
the period remains above the nearly all the guidance but is closest
to SHIPS model output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[weathernerdguy]

Still a tropical storm....

[TheStormExpert]

If this storm was any smaller it would possibly already be at Cat.2 intensity IMO.

[CrazyC83]

The 995 pressure is probably too conservative given its size IMO. But without Recon we will never know.

[supercane4867]

Wow,peak now is 125kts.

"Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term."

[CrazyC83]

Wow,peak now is 125kts.

"Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term."

In other words, they probably want to forecast a Cat 5 but don't want to risk a bust. With no land in the way, it is okay to be conservative if they are willing to admit it.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm wondering if SAB and TAFB is limited by constraints (since it got a T2.0 last night) or due to lack of eye and they are using a cloud cover pattern.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Surprised why isn't this officially a hurricane yet, just look at that impressive CDO and developing eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow,peak now is 125kts.

"Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term."

In other words, they probably want to forecast a Cat 5 but don't want to risk a bust. With no land in the way, it is okay to be conservative if they are willing to admit it.

I don't consider forecasting a Cat 5 since it is far from land a big risk. So what if it busts.

[Kingarabian]

We'll probably have a special advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

We'll probably have a special advisory.

Not yet. They'll probs wait for a major ADT jump if not a special TAFB/SAB classification. They'll wait for an eye to do that.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan, like what happened with Ivan.

HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...CORRECT TO SHOW INLAND AT 120HR ONLY...
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 100 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS
ESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan, like what happened with Ivan.

HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...CORRECT TO SHOW INLAND AT 120HR ONLY...
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 100 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS
ESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

Possibly, but that statement is like one of a TC update.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

An eye is starting to become evident on satellite imagery. Here comes the fun part.