EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

And at TAU 120, the NHC track shows Marie and Karina fairly close to each other, perhaps the latter absorbed by the former?

Models are now showing this, yes.

[WeatherGuesser]

Moved....

[Hurricane_Luis]

Is there a microwave image available? I wonder if an eye is trying to form in there...

Not sure how recent this image is but yeah, There is a small eye forming in this image. Just has to close it of.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc14/EPAC/13E.MARIE/amsr2/89hw/full/20140822.0759.gcomw1.x.89hw.13EMARIE.35kts-1006mb-126N-1003W.96pc.html

[WeatherGuesser]

Previous might be Lowell. I think this is Marie from yesterday:


http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg

[cycloneye]

Peak intensity up to 110kts and could be conservative says Dr Pasch.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep
convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally,
water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming
increasingly well defined. The current intensity estimate is set at
45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from
UW/CIMSS. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an
environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several
days, continued strengthening seems inevitable. Marie should become
a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category
3 status during the forecast period. This is suggested even by the
global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen
below 950 mb in a few days. The official wind speed forecast, which
could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective
intensity guidance.

The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt. The
steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at
this time. Over the next several days, Marie should move along the
southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will
be building westward from northern Mexico. The dynamical track
forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is
very close to the model consensus. This is essentially an update of
the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[euro6208]

Really Impressive...Has that WPAC eerily vibe that preludes rapid intensification...

I'm really thinking this could become our 3rd category 5 in the NHEM later on...

[Yellow Evan]

At this rate, Marie may be a hurricane by tonight as I said last night.

[euro6208]

Interested to know who are the record holders for fastest intensification in this basin?

[Yellow Evan]

Interested to know who are the record holders for fastest intensification in this basin?

Linda 97- 90 knt drop in 24 hours

Genevieve 14- 75 knt drop in 24 hours

Kiko 83 - 70 knt drop in 24 hours

[supercane4867]

Impressive CDO

[supercane4867]

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 54% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 41% is 9.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[CrazyC83]

Based on that microwave and satellite, I would go with 55 kt for current intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

I swear an eye is forming. Time to switch to a banding eye pattern?

[Ntxw]

Her outflow looks amazing. RI?

[Yellow Evan]

Her outflow looks amazing. RI?

It's probs been RIing for about ~14 hours now. It could enter the EI soon though.

[Kingarabian]

A storm that has no limits. And she knows it.

[Yellow Evan]

A storm that has no limits. And she knows it.

The more I think about it the more I think it looks like Linda 97 early on.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts on 18z Best Track

CrazyC83,you nailed it.

EP, 13, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1030W, 55, 998, TS

[CrazyC83]

Up to 55kts on 18z Best Track

CrazyC83,you nailed it.

EP, 13, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1030W, 55, 998, TS

That seemed reasonable. It will likely be higher by 21Z at advisory time anyway.

[Ntxw]

Any maps of Linda? Arguably thats the highest bar for EPAC systems