ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

It looks like the sharpest part of the wave axis (I see no indication of a closed low based on Guadeloupe radar) is just to the east of Antigua, so possibly something could get going overnight if we get a good burst of convection.

[Javlin]

it still looks like we have competing centers to me? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Sanibel]

I think it's feeling the ridge and shifting W.

[hectopascal]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... ation.html
TOT rate =4

Is closed and intensiying i believe it may have come under the influence of a kelvin wave eddy.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneTracker2031]

96L appears to be consolidating and due to the recent burst in convective activity near an LLC that tropical cyclone genesis is coming soon in the next 48 hours..

Synopsis for 96L and other systems: http://goo.gl/avOHwJ


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

The circulation with 96L is very vigorous but I think a big part of the problem with it is that it still has multiple vorts rotating around in there and there still isn't a clear cut winner between all of them. Until that issue is resolved I think 96L will continue to struggle. With its fast forward speed it may have trouble sorting that out and consolidating.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

To add to what I just said I'm see rotation at 16N and 61W as well as at 18N and 62W. The southern rotation appears to be headed off to the west while the northern vort with the most recent convective burst is heading wnw.

SFT

[Hammy]

Upper air environment is becoming less favorable by the looks of it, the CIMSS map shows the upper high being south of where the supposed circulation is.

[hectopascal]

Not the best sat-pic if you enlarge does appear to be a pin eye now visible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Evil Jeremy]

http://i60.tinypic.com/33adw02.jpg
Not the best sat-pic if you enlarge does appear to be a pin eye now visible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That picture is almost a day old...

[bahamaswx]

[img]http://i60.tinypic.com/33adw02.jpg[img]
Not the best sat-pic if you enlarge does appear to be a pin eye now visible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That's a picture from yesterday.

[hectopascal]

Apologize its late and dont have my glass,s on

[USTropics]

Current image of 96L:

[Hammy]

Latest ASCAT quite literally shows nothing at the surface, not even a sharp trough, and winds no higher than 25kts.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest ASCAT quite literally shows nothing at the surface, not even a sharp trough, and winds no higher than 25kts.

Which makes sense if you look at the 2 buoys that are in proximity.
Station 42060 has SE winds that turn from NE 3 hours ago although pressures are falling pretty robustly.

Station 42059 has NNE winds and pressures are falling pretty robustly there too. It is, however, much farther west than the other buoy (but close enough it should be affected).

If the center is where everyone has been thinking, 42060 would surely have a westerly component to the winds there, but a NE to SE would suggest a center to the south.

This is where I think the center location may be



Also if you look at SJU long range loop the rotation axis is south of PR, not north or east

[bahamaswx]

Hard to tell at night but it certainly looks like something is trying to form way down there.

This thing just can't get it's act together.

[TheStormExpert]

It's looking certain now that this thing isn't going to go to Florida, of course we still need to keep an eye on it.

[paintplaye]

It's looking certain now that this thing isn't going to go to Florida, of course we still need to keep an eye on it.

That southern vortex looks a lot more defined than it was earlier today. This would change the location of the center by 2 to 3 degrees which can change a lot in respect to forecasted track (and intensity for that matter) . This is especially true in this scenario where the expected trough struggles to fully pickup the storm. I wouldn't be so certain that Florida is completely safe.

[abajan]

...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm not a moderator but that's a really small text size for the S2K disclaimer. It would be better to just leave it at the same size as the rest of your entry. Anyway, welcome to S2K!

[chaser1]

It's looking certain now that this thing isn't going to go to Florida, of course we still need to keep an eye on it.

Whoa? Just woke up for a quick looksy. And where oh where did my cyclone just go, LOL??

I have to disagree with part of your assertion - "Its looking certain" The only thing that is certain is 96L's "uncertainty". Heck, if this thing does ever develop and get tagged a name, we need to drop alphabetical formality and simply name it "Sybil" - Storm of multiple personalities! Craziest disturbance?! If it doesn't like where its going, it simply reinvents where is presently is, LOL

I do agree with a prior post indicating an argument for a new center relocation well south. Of course, this too will change....