ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits · 36m

HWRF is not crazy. The pattern could support both its track and intensity. Just a reason to keep wary eye on tropics:

[sunnyday]

I'm going to venture out and say little to no development. If there is any, I am thinking recurve because that keeps coming up on reliable models.
Florida was hit often and badly in 2004 and 2005, but no hurricane has hit the state in over 3200 days (according to TWC). I see little reason to expect the worst as pictured in some of the less reliable models.

This is simply my personal opinion. Always rely on NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

If recent convective burst persists, we may be witnessing genesis.

[SouthDadeFish]

An observation:

All day long, convection has been occurring to the west of the naked "center." Now the suspected LLC is moving into the area where the morning and afternoon convection occurred. I wonder if this previous convection sufficiently moistened the mid-troposphere for the LLC's convection to blossom this evening.

[Hurricane Andrew]

An observation:

All day long, convection has been occurring to the west of the naked "center." Now the suspected LLC is moving into the area where the morning and afternoon convection occurred. I wonder if this previous convection sufficiently moistened the mid-troposphere for the LLC's convection to blossom this evening.

Sounds about right to me, but I am no pro-met.

You are! What do you think this convective burst will do? Continue to grow, or flop like last night's?

[asd123]

Attention fellow storm2kers, it's important that we not put out advisories unless the criteria are met to create unnecessary hype. But the NHC and other weather officials need to keep a very close eye as this system seems to be rapidly organizing on sat compared to earlier today. Forget about the 5am 11 am 6pm 11pm advisories, if the weather officials deem it necessary they will issue a special advisory.

The Lesser Antilles look to be "relatively" safe should this become a td or ts, as landfall would be expected late Thursday evening or Early Friday Morning.

The General public with absolutely no weather knowledge (I know you storm2kers don't buy into the hype) will watch a weather forecast will listen, but some words like "tropical disturbance" and Florida path will stick out to them and they would think a tropical storm (really an invest disturbance and not an actual ts) is racing towards Florida.

See what I mean: http://www.clickorlando.com/weather/wea ... a/27655820

First two lines of the story is what's the worst to the average person, even though the rest explains that this is not an actual tropical system. An average person will try to extract info from the first two lines and think it's doomsday.

[gatorcane]

If recent convective burst persists, we may be witnessing genesis.

Yep we very may well be, latest 01:15 frame shows the burst growing larger...

[hectopascal]

If recent convective burst persists, we may be witnessing genesis.

96L INVEST 140822 0000 17.6N 59.4W ATL 35 1009

[SouthDadeFish]

An observation:

All day long, convection has been occurring to the west of the naked "center." Now the suspected LLC is moving into the area where the morning and afternoon convection occurred. I wonder if this previous convection sufficiently moistened the mid-troposphere for the LLC's convection to blossom this evening.

Sounds about right to me, but I am no pro-met.

You are! What do you think this convective burst will do? Continue to grow, or flop like last night's?

Tough to say. The things going for it tonight instead of last night are: a more concentrated area of 850 mb vorticity as well as the fact that the dry air appears to be mixed out according to CIMSS TPW. This is verified by the set of 00Z upper-air soundings from the Lesser Antilles:



This sounding doesn't show much deep-layer shear, but there is about 15 knots of shear between 850 and 400 mb. This shear is essentially the only thing stopping me from being fairly confident we will see 96L become our next TC. If I had to lean one way or the other, I'd probably say recon confirms we have a TC tomorrow. But I'm just one guy It's crucial this convective burst persists and grows.

[Hurricaneman]

If recent convective burst persists, we may be witnessing genesis.

96L INVEST 140822 0000 17.6N 59.4W ATL 35 1009

based on that the first advisory will probably go straight to Cristobal

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

96L INVEST 140822 0000 17.6N 59.4W ATL 35 1009 is 35 knots ?

[Yellow Evan]

96L INVEST 140822 0000 17.6N 59.4W ATL 35 1009 is 35 knots ?

Yes. Remember recon found gale-force winds.

[blp]

An observation:

All day long, convection has been occurring to the west of the naked "center." Now the suspected LLC is moving into the area where the morning and afternoon convection occurred. I wonder if this previous convection sufficiently moistened the mid-troposphere for the LLC's convection to blossom this evening.

Sounds about right to me, but I am no pro-met.

You are! What do you think this convective burst will do? Continue to grow, or flop like last night's?

Tough to say. The things going for it tonight instead of last night are: a more concentrated area of 850 mb vorticity as well as the fact that the dry air appears to be mixed out according to CIMSS TPW. This is verified by the set of 00Z upper-air soundings from the Lesser Antilles:

g]http://i.imgur.com/t7pmpMN.gif[/img]

This sounding doesn't show much deep-layer shear, but there is about 15 knots of shear between 850 and 400 mb. This shear is essentially the only thing stopping me from being fairly confident we will see 96L become our next TC. If I had to lean one way or the other, I'd probably say recon confirms we have a TC tomorrow. But I'm just one guy It's crucial this convective burst persists and grows.

850 vorticity is certainly the most concentrated it has ever been.

[blp]

Assuming this classified soon with the uncertainty in the models i expect are larger cone than normal. It will be interesting to see how the nhc plays this one. Not an easy forecast.

[HURAKAN]

Assuming this classified soon with the uncertainty in the models i expect are larger cone than normal. It will be interesting to see how the nhc plays this one. Not an easy forecast.

the cone is not based on the uncertainty

[hectopascal]

LLCC is well embedered at this point.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[sunnyday]

If this does become a tc, will it be huge?

[hectopascal]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1408220000

[HeeBGBz]

That's a tight little circulation. I guess it was busy consolidating while it was scooting across the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

The enormous size might slow down intensification though.