ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

The convection is probably displaced by the easterlies. If it goes above the islands it won't be weakened by land interaction.

[SFLcane]

@TropicalTidbits Hispaniola has two effects on tropical disturbances: weaken and slow. If 96L gets tangled there, chance of missing trough increases.

[Gustywind]

It does seem to be cruisin

Without any doubts 96L is fast and furious after Bertha another fast moving system showing are strong the easterlies are...

[meriland23]

Its going too fast. Do you think its going too fast to even delevop?

[deltadog03]

Its going too fast. Do you think its going too fast to even delevop?

very possible

[somethingfunny]

I'm counting several areas of spin. Areas roughly around 16N/57W, 17N/59W, and 17N/62W all seem suspect.



That southeastern vorticity (16/57) seems like it must be the lead wave that we were initially expecting development from before this northern lobe came and sapped much of its' energy. Is the southern lobe is fighting back now?

[Hammy]

Eastern vortex seems to be moving a bit faster towards the convection and a lot of the low cloud movement is starting to switch around from the west up and down the western side of the Lesser Antilles.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm wondering...as this was originally 2 waves with one going considerably faster than the other one, that perhaps they didnt consolidate. Thats why we see 2 spins and the northern one going much faster, and both competing with one another

[Alyono]

Its going too fast. Do you think its going too fast to even delevop?

Needs to go FASTER to develop. It is being sheared from the east

[tolakram]

It's nearly under and anti-cyclone according to this map.

[meriland23]

Its going too fast. Do you think its going too fast to even delevop?

Needs to go FASTER to develop. It is being sheared from the east

If it moves any faster it will kill itself, if it doesn't move faster it will be sheared. It's a lose lose situation for the storm. I don't see it becoming anything.

[Hammy]

It's nearly under and anti-cyclone according to this map.

There seems to be just enough distance, at least at the moment, to produce 10-15kts of shear from the northeast if it doesn't speed up a bit more.

[Alyono]

Its going too fast. Do you think its going too fast to even delevop?

Needs to go FASTER to develop. It is being sheared from the east

If it moves any faster it will kill itself, if it doesn't move faster it will be sheared. It's a lose lose situation for the storm. I don't see it becoming anything.

it'll be fine if it speeds up. The winds are enough to sustain a circ

[abajan]

I'm counting several areas of spin. Areas roughly around 16N/57W, 17N/59W, and 17N/62W all seem suspect.

http://i.imgur.com/hWHvpjS.gif

...

Looks like there was even a small one trying to develop about 100 miles northeast of Barbados a few hours ago.

[Hurricaneman]

It now seems that convection is starting to bubble up around the center recon was following so this might be the one that wins out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HURRICANELONNY]

Sad part of all this is 96L will probably be the only game in town for august

[Sanibel]

17.5-59

[cycloneye]

60%-80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[caribepr]

Cooling us off and bringing some rain...we'll see what happens but so far so good!

[jlauderdal]

Sad part of all this is 96L will probably be the only game in town for august

If hwrf verifies this will be enough activity for this season