ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Friends in So Fla said on of the local mets said the disturbance will pass to the east of the Bahamas and not affect SE fl at all.
Everyone agree? How can he be so sure when the storm has not even formed?

[somethingfunny]

Friends in So Fla said on of the local mets said the disturbance will pass to the east of the Bahamas and not affect SE fl at all.
Everyone agree? How can he be so sure when the storm has not even formed?

I have no contention with that meteorologist's statement except for one: Never say "will" when you should say "could".

[deltadog03]

Anybody see a broad circulation at 16N, 60W heading nearly due west? This one could end up taking over...

I think there is a some slight rotation there possibly. I actually think this could get tucked in further W or WNW with that main convection.

[chaser1]

Anybody see a broad circulation at 16N, 60W heading nearly due west? This one could end up taking over...

Yes..., No..., Maybe...LOL Seriously though, one could make a case for a larger broader center there. Heck, I'm starting to wonder if something could be trying to reform at about 16.5N & 63W ??

[deltadog03]

something to consider, there are TWO ways this could impact the USA. One is to move very fast in the short term, like the 12Z HWRF. It makes it far enough west to miss the trough. The other is to move slower than it is moving, which would result in it being trapped by the ridge

I agree with you on this as well. It could get fast enough to out race the weakness....That could be the most plausible thing right now.

[blp]

something to consider, there are TWO ways this could impact the USA. One is to move very fast in the short term, like the 12Z HWRF. It makes it far enough west to miss the trough. The other is to move slower than it is moving, which would result in it being trapped by the ridge

I agree with you on this as well. It could get fast enough to out race the weakness....That could be the most plausible thing right now.

Very good obeservations. I also think on the trapping scenario it has to get passed 75w because the blocking ridge will not extend too far out during that time.

[Javlin]

Sitting back and looking at the bigger picture it is a fairly overall large rotation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[Rail Dawg]

Been doing this almost 35 years and still am not surprised by anything. We're all getting better at it but it's still a crap shoot where this will head.

[Gustywind]

Anybody see a broad circulation at 16N, 60W heading nearly due west? This one could end up taking over...

Waouw just east Guadeloupe, that won't be good news for us Gatorcane . Hope nothing forms near or on the Lesser Antilles We want juicy amount of water and no more !

[Hurricane Andrew]

SHIPS has this down to 4 knots by day 5, drifting NNW. If this thing loiters over the south Bahamas...an HWRF-style boom is not out of the question. IMO.

[deltadog03]

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[Hurricane Andrew]

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I agree. The old LLC is likely winding down, and a new LLC will transfer down underneath the convection.

[rolltide]

It looks to me like the likely COC will go right over Puerto Rico heading wnw. If so this means it will have to deal with the DR. This may delay any development until it reaches the southern Bahamas if it doesn't fall apart. After that who knows.





This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

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I agree. The old LLC is likely winding down, and a new LLC will transfer down underneath the convection.

radar seems to be indicating the same thing so this could get going fast tonight if thats the case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

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\Quite likely there are multiple vort rotating around and any convective increase will likely lower the pressure that area and produce another vort and many more until persistent convection can maintain.

[deltadog03]

Agreed Aric

[SFLcane]

racing at 25 mph theres no way this developes . I like the hwrf in terms of getting tangled with the islands then quick ramp up in Bahamas.

[tropicwatch]

Well the showers in Puerto Rico are moving from north to south.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop as the sun sets. Speed up for full effect. At this rate it will be in the Bahamas tomorrow.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=18&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[tropicwatch]

It does seem to be cruisin