ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Are there any upper air soundings from the islands to show us what may be holding this back?

[northjaxpro]

That area Hurricaneman has had convection pulsating around it all day. If we do have competing LLCs, then I do wonder if the one at near 18 N and 61.2 W will win out.

[SouthDadeFish]

Are there any upper air soundings from the islands to show us what may be holding this back?

Soundings from the Lesser Antilles show some dry mid-level air around 500-600 mb.

[tolakram]

Are there any upper air soundings from the islands to show us what may be holding this back?

Soundings from the Lesser Antilles show some dry mid-level air around 500-600 mb.

Thanks.

[NDG]

Some pretty strong winds. Also reported SSW winds after going through the apparent LLC.

184000 1639N 05726W 9772 00302 0113 +222 +214 160042 043 040 004 03
184030 1638N 05728W 9773 00298 //// +220 //// 156039 042 040 003 05
184100 1638N 05729W 9774 00297 0112 +220 //// 158035 037 038 000 01
184130 1637N 05731W 9768 00301 0109 +227 +222 161036 037 037 001 00
184200 1637N 05733W 9769 00300 0109 +225 +222 158033 036 039 001 01
184230 1636N 05734W 9768 00300 0109 +226 +225 163029 030 037 001 0

[Riptide]

It's so massive that development is almost guaranteed some point down the road. You would need 60kts of NE shear to dissipate something like this.

[Blown Away]

WPC advertising a recurve... WPC had 96L in GOM yesterday, 18z....

[northjaxpro]

If 96L does get to a point where it gets its act together, the potential for this to be a large tropical cyclone is definitely there. It has an impressive moisture envelope for sure.

[meriland23]

If 96L does get to a point where it gets its act together, the potential for this to be a large tropical cyclone is definitely there. It has an impressive moisture envelope for sure.

Large for sure, but also would take 3x as long to strengthen. Then again this is not a fast mover.

[CrazyC83]

Center looks to be at 15.4N 58.2W - closed enough for a tropical cyclone? Given the winds it would likely be TS Cristobal immediately.

[cycloneye]

Center looks to be at 15.4N 58.2W - closed enough for a tropical cyclone? Given the winds it would likely be TS Cristobal immediately.

But plane found a LLC around 16.4N-57.7W.

[Evil Jeremy]

Even with a closed circulation, I have a hard time believing that the NHC will upgrade with the convection being as messy as it is at the moment.

[Hammy]

I'm assuming the Kelvin wave that was aiding in convection is gone, so I'm starting to wonder if this won't get upgraded until the weekend at the earliest, especially with the downward trend in model intensity today.

[Blown Away]

Pretty clear where the LLC is...

[northjaxpro]

In analyzing if there are multiple vorts, I looked closely at satellite imagery, and although convection is pulsating northwest of where the LLC in which Recon closed off at 16.4N 57.7 W (partially exposed), you can see the inflow being strongest at where the LLC is at those coordinates. So, I think this LLC is the dominant one for the time being.

[Blown Away]

72 hour forecast position... Notice they don't have a direction arrow. Maybe confidence no too high after 72 hours...

[wxman57]

Two LLCs for the price of one! I was wondering why, on the second pass, the plane was finding easterly winds just south of the first center they found. Clearly, this is not a TD this afternoon. Should become the next TS in a day or two, though.

[northjaxpro]

.. Or it may indicate a stall possibly Blown Away on that map.. Usually NHC does have a direction arrow on those maps on possible developing cyclones .

[Riptide]

Nothing unusual, the two TW's have not completely merged yet, should occur in the next 12 hours.

[tolakram]

Both LLCs are in view now.



live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5