ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

RAMDIS floater repositioned over the center. You can kind of sort of maybe see an LLC in these 4 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=4

My eyes fail me. Where do you estimate the LLC at?

I see it at 16.1N, 57W heading NW to WNW:

[tolakram]

RAMDIS floater repositioned over the center. You can kind of sort of maybe see an LLC in these 4 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=4

My eyes fail me. Where do you estimate the LLC at?

I don't, other than seeing some curving low level flow near the center of the image.

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper, here is the latest weather forecast concerning 96L approaching Guadeloupe...

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 282890.php

WEATHER. Guadeloupe in yellow for heavy rains and thunderstorms

An active tropical wave, currently located on the Atlantic close, quickly moves towards the Caribbean arc with a lot of rain and thunderstorms. It will mainly affect the half north of the arc (of the Northern Islands Guadeloupe) this Thursday and Friday.

Weather deteriorates this Thursday morning with the first passages of showers punctuated by brief lulls. These showers are becoming more frequent and more pronounced from midday. They may be accompanied by tstorms and dump large amounts of water in a short time.

This bad and stormy weather continues next and to a lesser extent night this Friday in day. Associated with the storms, the wind can blow in gusts around 60 km/h. From Northeast during the day, veering South-East t the end of next night. Note a sea temporarily ground under thunderstorms.

This Friday, the crossing of the East-North-East swell with the sea of the Wind from South-East can make difficult sea conditions, but average waves should not exceed 2 m.

Next newsletter: this Thursday at 5 pm.

[northjaxpro]

RAMDIS floater repositioned over the center. You can kind of sort of maybe see an LLC in these 4 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=4

My eyes fail me. Where do you estimate the LLC at?

I see it at 16.1N, 57W heading NW to WNW:

Those coordinates you give does show a very slightly exposed LLC observing the visible imagery very closely. If that is the LLC, it needs a convective burst to get going near or over it for this be considered for a upgrade.
____________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster . For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

RAMDIS floater repositioned over the center. You can kind of sort of maybe see an LLC in these 4 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=4

My eyes fail me. Where do you estimate the LLC at?

I see it at 16.1N, 57W heading NW to WNW:

Yeap, on hr sat loop I can clearly see what appears to be a weak LLC near those coordinates.

[chaser1]

Noticed last night, but again at current... the appearance of "arc clouds" shooting out (presently to the NE & E). Seems very odd

[N2FSU]

RAMDIS floater repositioned over the center. You can kind of sort of maybe see an LLC in these 4 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=4

My eyes fail me. Where do you estimate the LLC at?

I see it at 16.1N, 57W heading NW to WNW:
[img ]http://i57.tinypic.com/3zt3t.jpg[/img]

Good catch!

[Hurricaneman]

those arc clouds are a sign that his is battling a lot of dry air and may take another day before doing anything interesting but in the tropics things can change on a dime

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

another thing I've noticed is this seems to have multiple vortices which IMO means this isn't as well organized as it could be and until 1 vortex takes over this is going to be a messy system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Ntxw]

I think too much emphasis has been put on where 96L is going rather than where it is now which is the zone that 2014 has claimed victims with conditions. Once it left the moonsonal region its struggling, probably until it reaches the subtropics but will it be too late by then?

[Nimbus]

You can see the circulation around high pressure in the water vapor loop. The TUTT north of Hispaniola that has been providing light shear from the south is getting squeezed by the high over the Southeast CONUS. If that high was to bridge over 96L, the shear would drop and there would be a significant westerly shift in the track. Makes the forecast a little more difficult since the eventual ridge strength and timing of a second weakness have too many possible random outcomes.

Good test for the models though.

[NDG]

Ha, recon found a west wind near that weak LLC.

[NDG]

Pressure near 1010 mb.

[northjaxpro]

And they found that right in the area where that partially exposed LLC we observed on satellite .

[NDG]

A close up look at where they sampled the area where a weak LLC appears in vis satellite.

[Weatherboy1]

In my opinion, we're really just 2-3 hours of persistent convection over that LLC away from this being declared a TD. Have to see if it can fire that up and battle off the modestly dry air in the vicinity right now.

[Weatherboy1]

I mean, you have model support for a system to develop to some degree ... you have relatively persistent (if sparse) convection unlike some of these "naked swirl" systems we've seen before ... and you have nice warm SSTs to work with. Maybe we finally get a declaration tonight?

[tropicwatch]

Can anyone take over on Recon observations?

[gatorcane]

Nice 5-day graphic, what shape is that?