ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pearl River]

Are my eyes deceiving me, in the animated satellite, does it look like some kind of weak circulation just west of the Leewards? Sorry, can't link from work!

[northjaxpro]

I would be inclined to believe that Recon will fly out today. 96L is closing in on the Leeward Islands, so I would think they would need Recon to get in there and see what is going on.

[Sanibel]

I think the center is still in that middle spot with the weak convection near 15-56

[TheStormExpert]

One thing to notice is that it has followed the model plots idea of a somewhat sharp right turn towards the NE Caribbean, many yesterday were not buying this at all.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon is green-lit for 1515 departure.

[cycloneye]

Recon mission will go

Departs at 11:15 AM EDT

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon will be telling on how much, if any, lower level organization has occurred.

[SouthDadeFish]

96L never took advantage of its improved structure last night, and now looks pretty ragged, at least convectively. Another thing to note is that it hauled off to the WNW yesterday. I think that is one reason why more models recurve this disturbance now.

[NDG]

If the recon indeed goes out this afternoon it will find nothing but a broad & elongated circulation, by looking at the latest hr vis sat loop, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Maybe they are flying because is very close to the Islands.

[tropicwatch]

Maybe they are flying because is very close to the Islands.

That is what I think. They need to know what is out there, just in case watches and warnings are needed.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, 96L changes little in structure over the next 12-24 hours. I think an LLC will form between 24 and 48 hours, and the storm will start to strengthen near Puerto Rico.

It is too early for me to make a prediction after that.

[northjaxpro]

To me, it looks as if a bit of northeasterly/easterly shear imparted on 96L overnight, and also a little bit of dry air got entrained into it. It is a bit ragged looking late this morning with a broad, elongated LLC. It will definitely take a bit more time for 96L to really spin up and get going.

Yes, cycloneye, as I pointed out in my previous post on this page, I think Recon is flying out mainly due to 96L's proximity currently to the Lesser Antilles.

[Rail Dawg]

I'm with the 15-56 to 58'ers.

[GCANE]

Looks like there was an overshooting top at DMAX and another about 2 hours later.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Cyclenall]

*Cut*

I don't understand the hype surrounding this, the model guidance showing what its showing doesn't energize my enthusiasm. It instead reminds me of all the times I've been burned when watching an Invest or storm very similar to this one around about now. And those seasons were many times more favorable than this one overall. Some factors are much better for 96L, the one's that have plagued past storms since the dry-air invasion and stable airmass remains.

*Cut*

Convection is totally popping right now

Will it wrap around? That is the question.

It did not wrap around, but instead faded and weakened. Looks like trash this morning. Next feature to look at is how long before the next blow-up of any convective burst closer to the center as a long time before the next would spell trouble for 96L's health.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

So how is this going to survive with 50kts of shear in it's path and the shear is only increasing from there?

[tolakram]

So how is this going to survive with 50kts of shear in it's path and the shear is only increasing from there?

Did you not visit the website I posted the last time you asked this? The storm is not getting any closer to the shear as the shear axis moves NW in the same general direction as 96L.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[OuterBanker]

With most models now predicting a weak fish. At least we will avoid another holiday storm (we had our first July 4 storm this year). We have had way too many Labor day storms though (latest was Irene).

[deltadog03]

I, for one, thought it was very possible to get this to the gom, but it had to develop pretty quickly. I thought this one had a better than not chance of doing that because conditions were a little better... Either way, my money says this stays weak, at best, and moves out to sea. IF*** and thats a gigantic IF, it does develop into a TS or something, then yes, it has a potential to effect FL, but as of now....meh