Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Yellow Evan]

I have posted the facts on the IOD several times here (and even stratified the results based upon el niño and non el niño, and yet one poster, who is now on ignore, still repeats the opposite instead of even trying to inquire about the data

Didn't your data that you posted go to the 1800s while his used the NCEP re-analysis which IIRC goes back to 1948?

[Ptarmigan]

Just because Cape Verde is as unfavorable as it likely gets in this generation (it seems) doesn't mean we can't see spin-ups from non-tropical sources or monsoonal systems in the Caribbean.

2005 did not have many Cape Verde storms.

[Ptarmigan]

I have posted the facts on the IOD several times here (and even stratified the results based upon el niño and non el niño, and yet one poster, who is now on ignore, still repeats the opposite instead of even trying to inquire about the data

Every weather pattern on Earth has an impact.

[Alyono]

I have posted the facts on the IOD several times here (and even stratified the results based upon el niño and non el niño, and yet one poster, who is now on ignore, still repeats the opposite instead of even trying to inquire about the data

Didn't your data that you posted go to the 1800s while his used the NCEP re-analysis which IIRC goes back to 1948?

1980. I used the time period where we have a decent record and likely didn't miss many short lived systems

[tolakram]

Vertical instability is spiking as tropical Atlantic convection increases. Certainly this is a lagging indicator and not a leading one.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm confused as to why there are nearly 200 posts on possible, maybe, could be storms that don't exist yet. (Invests)

It's a discussion board, this is what we do, this is what we enjoy. If you don't enjoy it you are welcome not to look.

I don't.

Until they get a TD## and a forecast track.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Despite one meteorologist's claims, the data quite clearly shows that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is the more favorable configuration for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. First off, taking a composite of the top 5 Accumulated Cyclone Energy years in the Atlantic (2005, 1995, 2004, 1950, 1961) shows below-average ocean temperatures across the Indian Ocean during the August to September timeframe. If you take another composite of the surface precipitation rate for the same years in the same period, you'll see that surface precipitation is above-average as a result.




And if for some reason that's not enough, an El Nino correlates well with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is unfavorable for activity. The reason for this is that when the ocean temperatures are warmer in the Indian Ocean, active convection limits moisture transport into the African monsoon, therefore limiting the intensity and frequency of tropical waves. And as explained in this paper, which I have referenced many times and which was written by specialists from the Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and Hurricane Research Division, a positive IOD weakens La Nina-related patterns that would otherwise allow for more tropical activity in our basin.



The information is there, it's just a matter of whether one chooses to ignore it or not.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I personally see few storms this year, but they'll be more dangerous overall. My reasoning is the most favorable conditions in the Basin are basically found in a broad box which runs from the SE & Mid-Atlantic Coasts back to Bermuda and then down to the Greater Antilles, couple this with a rather persistent and relatively strong East Coast Ridge as well as a similar Mid-West/Great Lakes Trough both of which have hung around a good part of the season already. You thus have a potential recipe for disaster. Once systems start to deepen in this area there is far less chance of the systems either slowing down before they impact land or getting picked up by a trough as opposed to if they are traversing the entire Atlantic as strong storms. I feel the above scenario played a role in the effects Arthur had on the Maritimes & Maine.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree hybrid. Home grown or waves that come out of the carribean could wreak havoc. Many of the strongest storms came late and south. There won't be many names this year but there could be some memorable ones.

[TheStormExpert]

IMO Arthur was one of those memorable ones due in part to the fact it was the earliest hurricane to hit North Carolina.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And could be the only hurricane this season that makes landfall. I m sorry but I just dont see this pattern that we have been in all summer long suddenly going poof in september and causing concerns for landfalling storms. 96L is just another in a long list of examples going back to last season of nothing being able to develop due to unfavorable conditions out there.

[Ntxw]

Posted this in the WPAC thread (courtesy Dr Ventrice twitter) thought I'd share here. SAL and dry air is improving, climo, and the MJO/KW waves have been beneficial. It will change to start Sept for the latter indices. After 96L (or what it becomes) goes poleward and creates a wave breaking event coupled with unfavorable MJO/CCKW to slow things down again for a period to begin peak of Hurricane season, at least for a week or two. Kind of like what the WPAC is suffering through now.

Cooler colors are favorable rising air, hot colors are unfavorable sinking air.

[tolakram]

What a difference a week makes.

7MB saved loop of TPW: http://imageshack.com/a/img745/2434/dkwyIg.gif

I guess some molecules of water made it into the Atlantic afterall?

[Ntxw]

Also lets not forget the idea that just off the SE US coast is where favorable conditions have been and continues to be. 96L looks like its beating the same drum, storms struggle in the deep tropics until they reach this area. If they continue west so far they have disappated in the Carib.

So when tracking storms the rest of the way a good idea would be to ask if the disturbance survives the trek and arrive into this region where best chances will likely be.

[gatorcane]

Latest track map, clearly the US East Coast Trough a player so far with those tracks, though we did manage to get one landfall so far.

[northjaxpro]

And looking at long range guidance out 10 days from now, I don't see any thing drastically changing with the pattern of U.S. East Coast troughs. Things can change, but now that we are about to enter September, I think it is more likely that we are locked into this pattern through most of the rest of this season.

[gatorcane]

What guidance are you looking at? Medium-range GFS guidance from the 12Z run shows the Bermuda High making an appearance for the forseeable future once Cristobal moves out. If it is correct, we haven't seen this pattern last this long the entire summer.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: What makes you say that? Medium-range GFS guidance shows the Bermuda High making an appearance for the forseeable future once Cristobal moves out. If it is correct, we haven't seen this pattern last this long the entire summer.

The GFS 204 hour from last night showed what is possibly 97L as a tropical storm and possibly intensifying into a hurricane in the NW Bahamas and then in later runs making a turn NNW toward the SC coast, almost like a Hugo '89 type track. Now, I commented about that in the Global Models Thread about this same run. Now, I know that is a long range out, but I am just making a guess and going with the trend regarding that run and thinking that another trough would possibly be in the vicinity of the U.S. East Coast by that time.

Again, that run being so far out will likely not verify and it may be possible for at least once this season, the Bermuda ridge will flex its muscle and prevent storms from curving out to sea. We will see in the days ahead.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree. Look what some models showed with pre-cristobal. Tracking west into the gulf hitting somewhere along the north gulf coast. No signs of any trough. Now we just had a back door cold front move through here and trough once again digging down the east coast sending cristobal out to sea. Believe this will be the same scenario and whatever may form will encounter the same thing.

[Ntxw]

3/3/0 is impressive. Though you can't really say the way things have panned out that it was truly surprising. This is your typical +ENSO effects with unfavorable MDR, and when waves are able to cross above the Antilles they find good conditions. The subtropics were thought to be favored and SE coast thus where all three have been while MDR still nothing.

Dr Ventrice did a blog recently regarding the upcoming pattern events. Major MJO pulse will give birth in the WPAC. The Atlantic will feel the strongest suppressed KW phase to date (SAL and sinking air outbreak), it's going to be an uphill battle after the first week of September, probably the worst conditions for peak. But we do have some climo on our side, as well as another one to two weeks of AEW's.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/7-14-day ... for-91-97/