Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

[SouthDadeFish]

Due to the lack of activity and perhaps some other factors, the NW Carib has been building up very high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) values. Here is the most recent analysis from NOAA:



These are the highest values I could find for this date since 2005. For those that don't know, TCHP is a good measure of how warm the top layer of the ocean is, which is related to how much fuel an intense hurricane has since their wind and waves deeply mix the top layer of the ocean. High TCHP values have been related to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.

Hopefully we do not get a storm in a favorable upper-level flow regime to tap into this great amount of energy.

[Alyono]

Due to the lack of activity and perhaps some other factors, the NW Carib has been building up very high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) values. Here is the most recent analysis from NOAA:



These are the highest values I could find for this date since 2005. For those that don't know, TCHP is a good measure of how warm the top layer of the ocean is, which is related to how much fuel an intense hurricane has since their wind and waves deeply mix the top layer of the ocean. High TCHP values have been related to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.

Hopefully we do not get a storm in a favorable upper-level flow regime to tap into this great amount of energy.

much more heat content in the NW Caribbean and GOM than there was in 2005

[Hurricaneman]

Due to the lack of activity and perhaps some other factors, the NW Carib has been building up very high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) values. Here is the most recent analysis from NOAA:



These are the highest values I could find for this date since 2005. For those that don't know, TCHP is a good measure of how warm the top layer of the ocean is, which is related to how much fuel an intense hurricane has since their wind and waves deeply mix the top layer of the ocean. High TCHP values have been related to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.

Hopefully we do not get a storm in a favorable upper-level flow regime to tap into this great amount of energy.

This could be a weak year but if something goes through that area someone is going to get blitzed and thats what I'm worried about sometime in the next 7 to 10 days with what most of the models are saying

[SouthDadeFish]

Agreed, Alyono. That is a scary thought. I said since 2005, because that was the first year I found in their archive.

[TheStormExpert]

Due to the lack of activity and perhaps some other factors, the NW Carib has been building up very high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) values. Here is the most recent analysis from NOAA:



These are the highest values I could find for this date since 2005. For those that don't know, TCHP is a good measure of how warm the top layer of the ocean is, which is related to how much fuel an intense hurricane has since their wind and waves deeply mix the top layer of the ocean. High TCHP values have been related to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.

Hopefully we do not get a storm in a favorable upper-level flow regime to tap into this great amount of energy.

Even in the Bahamas region there is high TCHP values.

[northjaxpro]

The warm, toasty waters of the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have hardly been tapped at all almost now for the past couple of years.

If any system can get there and develop in either of those areas, with the right upper level environmental conditions, it could get extremely dicey.

[Ntxw]

Luckily wind shear overall this year has been running high in this area overall which prevented even the large monsoonal gyres that can help alleviate some heat as well that often occurs. Most waves haven't survived the trip to reach this region up to date. Lets hope that continues.

[Hurricaneman]

The scary thing is if the monsoon gyre forms in October we could get a Mitch, or Wilma type system so it is something to watch for

[CrazyC83]

Indeed, if something goes there in a favorable regime it is pretty much a bomb factory.

[northjaxpro]

This is one of the chief reasons why I think October and possibly November may be active months in these regions. The TCHP values are insanely high down there, and I think just a decent slackening of the shear in the NW Caribbean or GOM could allow tropical cyclone development down there in the latter part of this season. Plus, climatology anyway favors late season development in these particular areas of course.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we'll have to worry if any storm gets into the NW caribbean this year.

[cycloneye]

Let's not leave out the GOM that is also very warm.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed cycloneye. I was including the GOM in my posts as well. Very toasty waters. It is rather ominous and uncomfortable the potential of a tropical cyclone getting really going if the right enviromental conditions are there in the GOM or NW Caribbean which we have discussed.

[sunnyday]

Hurricaneman,
Please excuse me if this is an obvious question, but what areas are you talking about when you refer to something possibly happening in the next 7 to 10 days?
Thank you....

[chaser1]

:uarrow: This is one of the chief reasons why I think October and possibly November may be active months in these regions. The TCHP values are insanely high down there, and I think just a decent slackening of the shear in the NW Caribbean or GOM could allow tropical cyclone development down there in the latter part of this season. Plus, climatology anyway favors late season development in these particular areas of course.

THAT is a point that should really be repeated as well within the "Forecast for the Remainder of 2014 Forum". Granted there are no guarantees here (nor were any inferred), but given many early season assumptions of higher latitude storm genesis, in addition to indications that "near land" formation (such as Arthur) might suggest one or more additional tropical cyclones might form in the general region, then toss in Climatology..... I'd suggest we'd keep an eye open here specifically for those periods forecasting favorable upper air conditions and whether or not any candidate waves, fronts, or disturbed weather might appear to be moving through. Tropical cyclone formation over such fertile grounds could prove significant, not to mention the increased potential for more rapid intensification and possibly decreased Watch/Warning time (depending on speed and motion of course).

[Hurricaneman]

Hurricaneman,
Please excuse me if this is an obvious question, but what areas are you talking about when you refer to something possibly happening in the next 7 to 10 days?
Thank you....

the area east of the islands around 45W

[sunnyday]

Thank you for explaining.

[Steve820]

This really looks like an area to watch out for, if any cyclone develops in the west Caribbean this season it might bomb out especially if it's in October. The lack of activity in this region is starting to cause potentially dangerous SSTs...

[Ptarmigan]

If conditions are right and anything develops over that region, it could be a very intense hurricane.

[ninel conde]

i think it will go untapped. too many negative factors.