Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[TheStormExpert]

How about this prediction?

Total for the season

6/6/0

4 more systems but all will become hurricanes but none major.

Out of those 4, 2 will make landfall; one in Florida and one in Louisiana. The Florida one will happen in mid September and the Louisiana landfall will happen in early October.

Very low count of named systems but all become hurricanes with 3 landfalls in the U.S.!

Even in a season like 2004 or 2005 this is somewhat impossible. We've already seen several systems including TD #2 that could of actually qualified at being minimal TS's at some point.

[CrazyC83]

Closest thing to a feast-or-famine season was 2011 in the Pacific, had only 11 named storms (below normal) but all but one became hurricanes and more than half of them majors.

[TheStormExpert]

Closest thing to a feast-or-famine season was 2011 in the Pacific, had only 11 named storms (below normal) but all but one became hurricanes and more than half of them majors.

But of course that is the East Pacific where such an occurrence would seem more likely over it happening on the Atlantic side.

[ninel conde]

its looking like we will have no development in august. a rarity.

[Alyono]

starting to agree with Ninel, but not for his/her reasons, that there is unlikely to be anything for August.

The large scale favorable conditions that the CFS had initially forecast for the Atlantic instead have set up in the EPAC

[WPBWeather]

starting to agree with Ninel, but not for his/her reasons, that there is unlikely to be anything for August.

The large scale favorable conditions that the CFS had initially forecast for the Atlantic instead have set up in the EPAC

Continuing to not agree with ninel, and notice that too much emphasis is placed on lagging indicators for future predictions. Atlantic is moistening up and SAL is diminishing.

See: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[TheStormExpert]

starting to agree with Ninel, but not for his/her reasons, that there is unlikely to be anything for August.

The large scale favorable conditions that the CFS had initially forecast for the Atlantic instead have set up in the EPAC

Continuing to not agree with ninel, and notice that too much emphasis is placed on lagging indicators for future predictions. Atlantic is moistening up and SAL is diminishing.

See: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

That's because there is currently a Kelvin Wave passing through the Atlantic, this should all change back to full blown desert mode within the next several days at least.

Plus ninel has not been wrong yet! Especially last season when everyone was harping on it being an active season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Dry air exists outside of Saharan Air Layer. Large-scale sinking air across the Atlantic will continue to dry out the atmosphere and make tropical cyclone formation difficult over the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

Dry air exists outside of Saharan Air Layer. Large-scale sinking air across the Atlantic will continue to dry out the atmosphere and make tropical cyclone formation difficult over the next few weeks.

So the Kelvin Wave coming will not help?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Tropics can change on a dime. So don't put too much emphasis on the dry/stable enviroment.

[tolakram]

All I can say is that if people are using current conditions and past performance as an indicator there will come a day when they get burned. That day might not come until next year, or later ... but eventually it will arrive.

I would also recommend they avoid the stock market.

[Kingarabian]

All I can say is that if people are using current conditions and past performance as an indicator there will come a day when they get burned. That day might not come until next year, or later ... but eventually it will arrive.

I would also recommend they avoid the stock market.

That's what I tell people in Hawaii. They keep complaining that storms never come. Eventually one came this year and over 2000 households still do not have electricity on the big island despite it being 2 weeks since Iselle hit.

Everyone should their eyes peeled, be thankful that conditions are bad for tropical development and be ready when they become favorable.

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I can say is that if people are using current conditions and past performance as an indicator there will come a day when they get burned. That day might not come until next year, or later ... but eventually it will arrive.

I would also recommend they avoid the stock market.

That's what I tell people in Hawaii. They keep complaining that storms never come. Eventually one came this year and over 2000 households still do not have electricity on the big island despite it being 2 weeks since Iselle hit.

Everyone should their eyes peeled, be thankful that conditions are bad for tropical development and be ready when they become favorable.

Hope the power comes back real soon for them. The naysayers here. Barely ever prepare because they think it will be a dead season. They may be right. But I'd rather be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

[Steve820]

This season keeps being all dead, especially because of SAL/wind shear/etc... In fact, if this continues we might not even see Cristobal before the end of August! My predictions for this season are: 8 depressions, 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes (Arthur and Bertha + 2 upcoming hurricanes), and 1 October Caribbean major.

[CrazyC83]

Cape Verde is probably dead meat in 2014. I don't expect anything from there. I think Cristobal will come from a non-tropical feature.

[Ntxw]

Dry air exists outside of Saharan Air Layer. Large-scale sinking air across the Atlantic will continue to dry out the atmosphere and make tropical cyclone formation difficult over the next few weeks.

So the Kelvin Wave coming will not help?

Kelvin wave is only a short term fix for a long term problem. Take for example the EPAC, KW helps spawns storms and once they pass with no shear and relatively moist environments storms continue to chug along. KW come and go and once they pass whatever comes from them then depends on the conditions over in the Atlantic locally. This KW doesn't look like it will stay for long as the suppressing phase of the KW will be right on it's heels at least for a short time.

[ninel conde]

euro once again shws an east coast trof in 10 days. so much for the super ridge in the NW atlantic which isnt going to happen. 4 fronts are supposed to rip through here this week, when in summer we shouldnt get 4 fronts for the entire season. with a super hurricane in the east pac i suspect the atlantic to be flooded with shear. 0/0/0 in august seems almost certain now. with the winter pattern in full gear i suspect conditions to be more negative in sept.

[Hammy]

euro once again shws an east coast trof in 10 days. so much for the super ridge in the NW atlantic which isnt going to happen. 4 fronts are supposed to rip through here this week, when in summer we shouldnt get 4 fronts for the entire season. with a super hurricane in the east pac i suspect the atlantic to be flooded with shear. 0/0/0 in august seems almost certain now. with the winter pattern in full gear i suspect conditions to be more negative in sept.

Just to point out 0/0/0 in August is physically impossible as August is already 1/1/0.

[Yellow Evan]

euro once again shws an east coast trof in 10 days. so much for the super ridge in the NW atlantic which isnt going to happen. 4 fronts are supposed to rip through here this week, when in summer we shouldnt get 4 fronts for the entire season. with a super hurricane in the east pac i suspect the atlantic to be flooded with shear. 0/0/0 in august seems almost certain now. with the winter pattern in full gear i suspect conditions to be more negative in sept.

Just to point out 0/0/0 in August is physically impossible as August is already 1/1/0.

Bertha arguably formed in July.

[WPBWeather]

euro once again shws an east coast trof in 10 days. so much for the super ridge in the NW atlantic which isnt going to happen. 4 fronts are supposed to rip through here this week, when in summer we shouldnt get 4 fronts for the entire season. with a super hurricane in the east pac i suspect the atlantic to be flooded with shear. 0/0/0 in august seems almost certain now. with the winter pattern in full gear i suspect conditions to be more negative in sept.

Just to point out 0/0/0 in August is physically impossible as August is already 1/1/0.

How DARE you try to confuse this thread with facts!