Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm just not believing anything changes until I see it with my own eyes. Not what super long range models might show what will happen in a month. Its been hostile out there for months regarding all negative factors and looks to pretty much continue. Any home brew activity, besides Arthur, has been non existent as well. As mentioned shear looks to be increasing again in the gulf and Carib and waiting to rip apart any storms that try and get going. Will be shocked to see more than five more tropical storms and one minimal and one moderate cat 2 short lived hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm just not believing anything changes until I see it with my own eyes. Not what super long range models might show what will happen in a month. Its been hostile out there for months regarding all negative factors and looks to pretty much continue. Any home brew activity, besides Arthur, has been non existent as well. As mentioned shear looks to be increasing again in the gulf and Carib and waiting to rip apart any storms that try and get going. Will be shocked to see more than five more tropical storms and one minimal and one moderate cat 2 short lived hurricane.

This was the same case last year at this time. Many would keep saying every week that conditions would suddenly become more favorable and that the lid would pop off. It never did! So therefore, I from there on I assumed I would not believe any of this talk until I see it with my own eyes!

Went at least three whole months last season with hearing the lid was soon going to burst off, it got real old quick.

[tolakram]

Where are people getting this shear information? Current shear over all tropical zones is near normal at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[Ntxw]

Where are people getting this shear information? Current shear over all tropical zones is near normal at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Shear across the Caribbean has risen from below normal to near normal. In the coming days it will continue to increase possibly even 40-50kts+ (look east of central America). The trend has been up from last week and remain so for the foreseeable future. MDR is kind of a wash for the time being.

[Hammy]

I'm just not believing anything changes until I see it with my own eyes. Not what super long range models might show what will happen in a month. Its been hostile out there for months regarding all negative factors and looks to pretty much continue. Any home brew activity, besides Arthur, has been non existent as well. As mentioned shear looks to be increasing again in the gulf and Carib and waiting to rip apart any storms that try and get going. Will be shocked to see more than five more tropical storms and one minimal and one moderate cat 2 short lived hurricane.

This was the same case last year at this time. Many would keep saying every week that conditions would suddenly become more favorable and that the lid would pop off. It never did! So therefore, I from there on I assumed I would not believe any of this talk until I see it with my own eyes!

Went at least three whole months last season with hearing the lid was soon going to burst off, it got real old quick.

I personally think this year will probably have less storms than last year, but as already proven so far, stronger ones. Euro is starting to sniff out some activity in the coming days, which I believe is the first time it's shown any significant development in the MDR during August since 2011, so that alone is a sign that conditions are changing slightly. 'Because it's the same as last year at this time' is not any indication that the rest of the season will be as inactive, especially considering that more active seasons have actually had worse conditions in the MDR at this time.

[ninel conde]

I'm just not believing anything changes until I see it with my own eyes. Not what super long range models might show what will happen in a month. Its been hostile out there for months regarding all negative factors and looks to pretty much continue. Any home brew activity, besides Arthur, has been non existent as well. As mentioned shear looks to be increasing again in the gulf and Carib and waiting to rip apart any storms that try and get going. Will be shocked to see more than five more tropical storms and one minimal and one moderate cat 2 short lived hurricane.

5 may be too high. i still see no evidence of this nw atlantic super ridge some are talking about. all i see is front after front after front blasting off the coast.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

now that is what would be needed for something to form. low pressure over greenland that causes the azores high to weaken and end the super SAL. however, i will have to actually see it to believe it.

[CFLHurricane]

Self-deleted

[CFLHurricane]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2014081706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

now that is what would be needed for something to form. low pressure over greenland that causes the azores high to weaken and end the super SAL. however, i will have to actually see it to believe it.

Now THAT is what the doctor ordered!

Knocking my crossed fingers on wood while holding a lucky rabbit's foot!

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly if you asked me 10 years from now if todays satellite pic is from August or Late April I would think most people would say may

[CaliforniaResident]

How about this prediction?

Total for the season

6/6/0

4 more systems but all will become hurricanes but none major.

Out of those 4, 2 will make landfall; one in Florida and one in Louisiana. The Florida one will happen in mid September and the Louisiana landfall will happen in early October.

Very low count of named systems but all become hurricanes with 3 landfalls in the U.S.!

[somethingfunny]

From Capital Weather Gang's Brian McNoldy:

The deep tropical Atlantic over the past 15 years on August 15, with storms (and storms-to-be) labeled. 10/15 years have had at least one active storm or interesting disturbance on this date. [the 2006 image is water vapor, so it looks different from the others which are all infrared]

Hmm...most mid-Augusts look as crappy as 2014!

[Alyono]

based upon the persistent trends from the GFS, which overdevelops things, conditions should remain down right hostile

Lets put it this way, we have no moisture, no instability, no well defined disturbances. Until that changes, we have no chance of development. I am not sure when it will change. Thought it would change toward the end of the month. However, it is fairly clear now that the favorable conditions will remain over the EPAC

[Ntxw]

Hmm...most mid-Augusts look as crappy as 2014!

It may be on satellite, but satellite doesn't show you below which is what most decent Augusts are not like which is mid level dry air and sinking air. It is more akin to the quiet Augusts that typically end up with lower total ACE.



Pressures so far (higher pressure = sinking air)



What 2005 looks like



On all these reanalysis charts, one region still looks decent as has been thus where the 2 hurricanes have been (strengthen) which is off immediate SE US coast.

[chaser1]

Hmm...most mid-Augusts look as crappy as 2014!

It may be on satellite, but satellite doesn't show you below which is what most decent Augusts are not like which is mid level dry air and sinking air. It is more akin to the quiet Augusts that typically end up with lower total ACE.



Pressures so far (higher pressure = sinking air)



What 2005 looks like



On all these reanalysis charts, one region still looks decent as has been thus where the 2 hurricanes have been (strengthen) which is off immediate SE US coast.

Great point! Simply stated, overall Atlantic conditions suck. They might suck a little less in Sept or at some point within the remainder of the season. Regardless, 1, 2, or more storms WILL form and where they will form will quite simply be in those few area's where conditions are conducive for such development. Rather than eye-ball waves and invests for potential development, it almost seems more logical to eye-ball regional areas conducive for development, and THEN whether any approaching waves, areas of disturbed weather, or dropping cold fronts might be approaching to then trigger tropical development.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2014081706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

now that is what would be needed for something to form. low pressure over greenland that causes the azores high to weaken and end the super SAL. however, i will have to actually see it to believe it.

Now THAT is what the doctor ordered!

Knocking my crossed fingers on wood while holding a lucky rabbit's foot!

the chance of anything changing is zero in my opinion. all the talk of a ridge appearing from nowhere in the nw atlantic is ludicrous. for anyone saying that a ridge will appear we need to look at what is actually occuring. we have a big heat ridge over the south central states with a nw flow blasting off the east coast. the euro shows a super trof in the west atlantic for the next week, just the opposite of the ridge thats needed. in other words, more of the same nothing. constant floods in the east from the parade of fronts and a dried up as a prune tropics. there is simply no way for water molecules to get transported into the tropics. the nw flow along the east coast has been dominat since 2006 and each year it just gets more pronounced. in close development the rest of the season? no way no how with this pattern.

[Frank2]

Interesting to note...

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season

non mobile: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[Hammy]

The pressure charts would certainly explain why everything is fizzling after coming off of Africa.

Interesting to note...

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season

non mobile: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season

I don't think this is a particularly good comparison because it occurred in the middle of a very cool AMO period.

[Ntxw]

The pressure charts would certainly explain why everything is fizzling after coming off of Africa.

The Euro has done a decent job since late spring of showing higher than normal pressures south of 30N for JJA/ASO and expanding from the MDR the deeper the season goes, though that may be climo/seasonal variability.

[Alyono]

The pressure charts would certainly explain why everything is fizzling after coming off of Africa.

Interesting to note...

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season

non mobile: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season

I don't think this is a particularly good comparison because it occurred in the middle of a very cool AMO period.

not to mention a WAR with unrestricted sub warfare