Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[tolakram]

Well, I can only list the I don't knows.

I don't know why conditions are so bad in the Atlantic.

I don't know what to look for to decide if they are improving.

I have not heard a good explanation for the conditions or any good reasoning for why they may either stay the same or change.

So really, 2 weeks from now, we might be looking at the same thing or something different. I don't think the models can really tell us what conditions will be like in 2 weeks.

[ninel conde]

TWC had a nice graphic on how the atlantic is totally capped with warm air. dont see it changing at all. no wave has a chance right now.

[Steve820]

I predict we'll see about 6 more named storms, 2-3 more hurricanes and a potential major and we'll make it up to the name "Hanna".

[ConvergenceZone]

As a fellow meteorologist recently pointed out to me, I always try and enjoy these low activity years when I can, because you just know that there will be PLENTY OF years ahead where the tropical activity will be absolutely through the roof!!! There will be years where it will be so busy we can't keep up with it.....History always repeats itself, so enjoy the slow tropics why you can

[Ntxw]

Well, I can only list the I don't knows.

I don't know why conditions are so bad in the Atlantic.

I don't know what to look for to decide if they are improving.

I have not heard a good explanation for the conditions or any good reasoning for why they may either stay the same or change.

So really, 2 weeks from now, we might be looking at the same thing or something different. I don't think the models can really tell us what conditions will be like in 2 weeks.

Well said. It is what it is, and the atmosphere will do as it pleases. I think some of our greatest flaws in trying to predict it is the close-minded thinking of one index, or one reason. The atmosphere isn't singular one thing isn't independent of another, you have to look at the whole picture and account for everything. ENSO, SST's, wind shear alone doesn't give you full explanation. It's always the chicken or the egg, but it won't matter as you need both to get the other.

I think we'll get some activity towards peak season. Maybe up to normal activity but I doubt it will be above normal for the next 4-6 weeks. 1993-1994 couplet as an analog looks mighty good right now for 2013-2014.

[TheStormExpert]

Given what is being showed by the models, as well as the fact that the central Atlantic remains as hostile as I have ever seen it (seems the MJO phase is such that convection is being suppressed there), I am not sure we will see any long tracked systems this year. Bertha may be the long tracker.

Instead, what we may see are quick spin ups. Take Antia in 1977. A wave did nothing until it reached the Gulf and found favorable conditions. It may be something like that that we see this year. Open ocean developments may only persist for a day or two, like they did in 1994, another down right hostile year

Also, the disturbances are quite weak. We havn't had a strong disturbance yet that has moved off of Africa and was an immediate developmental candidate. I had posted in the models thread, but I will restate, that if you exclude el niño years, a negative IOD is UNFAVORABLE for Cape Verde systems based upon data I looked at from 1980 to 2013. The correlation is about .3 (not strong, but some signal) (including all years there is a correlation of -.15, but the strong el niños overwhelmed the signal of a highly positive IOD)

Funny you mentioned earlier that Disturbances/Tropical Waves moving off of Africa have been weak because currently the Tropical Wave (Pouch 018L) that is halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands is showing signs of possibly being a TD.

Overall there has been many weak Tropical Waves to move off of Africa but there has also been plenty of strong ones too (about an average amount).

[hurricanehunter69]

TWC had a nice graphic on how the atlantic is totally capped with warm air. dont see it changing at all. no wave has a chance right now.

The wave that just came off Africa definitely has a chance!

[WPBWeather]

TWC had a nice graphic on how the atlantic is totally capped with warm air. dont see it changing at all. no wave has a chance right now.

Of course it has a chance.

[northjaxpro]

I think we will end the rest of the season with 8 more named storms with three hurricanes and one major included.

We may see a storm develop out in the MDR, whether if is 95L currently or another of these waves by the end of August. However, I don't foresee conditions out there improving significantly for the development of mature,strong tropical cyclones as SAL, dry air and wind shear will limit long tracking systems and they will coninue to struggle to survive this season.

I still think activity will pick up in September into October in the North Atlantic basin as you would anticipate during this period. I still believe that more homegrown systems will develop either in the GOM or off the SE US coast. Also, I think eventually conditions will become more conducive in the western Caribbean by October.

Typically, climo suggests the this region is where to watch for development and I think eventually the Caribbean and GOM will come alive the latter part of this season.

So, with an ensuing El Nino, you would expect for just a near average season. 2014 likely will end up somewhere with a total of 8-11 named storms. I initially thought we would get to at least the "J" storm this season and I will stick by that. Likely will end with 4 total hurricanes this season, with Arthur and Bertha already included, and I believe one major hurricane will develop probably in the western Carribean or off the SE US coast late this season.



This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

The only place IMO a major hurricane will have any luck forming this season is just off the SE US coast in the same area as Arthur.

[TheStormExpert]

For August 16th it sure is very active out there!(Sarcasm)

[ConvergenceZone]

I think we will be lucky if this season makes it letter "G"....
While there have been seasons where the season extended later than normal. There have also been plenty of seasons where once September was over, the activity just completely shut off....So who's to say that this won't be one of those seasons??

[Steve]

Watched the Joe Bastardi Saturday Summary this morning (first 5 minutes on tropics), and I think it potentially validates some of what I threw out there earlier this week. That will be gratifying to me if much of what we agree on turns out right, because there are also plenty of years where you think you can pick clues out of patterns and end up completely off. His target area goes slightly farther West than what I think, and he is going with the coming cpac based el niño (probably getting to moderate). He also highlights the current ssta's and sst's which I thought was important, as well as trough migration farther west in the continental US which promotes ridging into the SEUS and a typically warmer than normal Fall for us in the Southeast.

The interesting parts for the near portions of the rest of the season would be they think 1 or 2 of the African waves get going by month end (I thought it would probably take until early September), and the Japanese model sniffing out enhanced moisture running up through Cuba and the Eastern Gulf in a couple of weeks on a WNW/NW track sort of toward the East Cental Gulf (Al/FL?). That model has plenty of time to adjust, but it definitively indicates its potential for bringing up tropical moisture (whether it would end up being somewhere between Louisiana and the Bahamas is anyone's guess. Lending support is the European which shows some pressure evidence near Jamaica.

So maybe the 'rest of the season' will have an earlier start than I think. I'm not calling that, I'm just putting out there that someone whose rest of the season is similar in some ways to what I think will happen has some thoughts out there in video that may be of interest to anyone reading or participating in this thread as well as potentially anyone from the big islands to the SE US for the end of the month. And late August and early September storms coming up through the Caribbean can sometimes be significant.

[CrazyC83]

Since I expect major changes in the reanalysis in the early satellite era (a lot of new storms added due to poor analysis as they were still learning how to indicate weaker storms back in the 1970s and even 1980s), 2014 could be one of the quietest seasons ever if things are correct...but it only takes one!

[Ntxw]

Stronger shear has returned to the Caribbean and all the guidance I am seeing as far as the eye can see keeps it very hostile. This area was, is, and will remain a graveyard for anything traversing it. Even the typically favored BOC is experiencing abnormal shear, which is likely why we haven't seen a number of "home brews" in this area like previous years. Again the area with low shear and not quite as dry remains in the subtropics especially off the southeast coast. These "waves" if they are to have any chance must survive the MDR, avoid the Caribbean and make it further north.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[TheStormExpert]

Stronger shear has returned to the Caribbean and all the guidance I am seeing as far as the eye can see keeps it very hostile. This area was, is, and will remain a graveyard for anything traversing it. Again the area with low shear and not quite as dry remains in the subtropics especially off the southeast coast. These "waves" if they are to have any chance must survive the MDR, avoid the Caribbean and make it further north.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

The Eastern Atlantic too has higher shear now, and Bryan Norcross on TWC says that will remain the case for at least the next two weeks.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope your all right with another slow to dead season. But it's only mid-Aug with plenty of time to go. The SAL looks to be retreating some and possibly pressures dropping by end of month. For those that think a train of storms should be in the atlantic now. Should take a look at past years. I'm in alot of pain from a multiple neck fusion and im wearing a neck brace. So I don't need a storm coming. Since I can't lift a pebble right now. I'm somewhat prepared with new propane tank and accordian shutters plus 5 gal water tank. So I'm hoping for the best but preparing for a depression.

[northjaxpro]

Abnormal shear values in the Caribbean, lack of vertical instability, SAL and dry air in the MDR, cooler than normal SSTs in spots out in the MDR. I'm sure I left off a couple of other crippling factors Mothe Nature has given us out in the North Atlantic basin so far in 2014.

Oh well, we still have the peak still to come, and I think still that activity will pick up some as we enter September as I stated in my post above.

[gatorcane]

Looks like pouch 17L and pouch 18L have really put a dent in the SAL (see below). Plus the Azores High has been eroded by a mid-latitude trough and the result is less easterly winds across the MDR to bring in the dust from the Sahara. That is why these pouches are only crawling westward.

There also looks to be a good lineup of waves brewing over Africa looking at the image below and you can't ignore the 12Z Euro which takes pouch 17L and gradually develops it into a hurricane.

All this means -> we should start to see a gradual ramp up in activity the next couple of weeks



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

There may be passage of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave that comes from the EPAC next week. It will likely spark interest in spawning TC's, seems like a fairly decent KW too which is probably what the models have been zoning in on. I'm not sure which disturbance will take advantage but it should be interesting nonetheless. After it's passage the Atlantic conditions will determine the fate of whatever comes out of it. Sinking air is not as prevalent as last week and will likely improve some with the KW passage.