#1287 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 09, 2014 6:25 am
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014
MISSING WORD ADDED TO FIRST PARAGRAPH
THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE REMNANT OF ISELLE AND SATELLITE ANALYSTS HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO DETERMINE DATA T-NUMBERS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION PERSISTS...BUT WINDS AT NOAA BUOY
51003 HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INDICATING A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW REMAINS.
THE KAUAI RADAR SHOWS 40 KT VELOCITIES ALOFT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT
OF THE REMNANT LOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY DOWN TO 30 KT IN THE
NORTH QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
NORTHWEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING NORTHWEST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW
OPENING UP TO A TROUGH BY MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 20.3N 160.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.6N 162.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z 21.0N 165.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 21.2N 167.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 21.5N 170.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 23.6N 175.3W...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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