CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[AdamFirst]

My coconut clock is still off. Will this go in before sunset out there?

The core should be on the big island between 6 and 8 PM Hawaii time - that would be midnight to 2 AM eastern

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[WeatherGuesser]

My coconut clock is still off. Will this go in before sunset out there?

The core should be on the big island between 6 and 8 PM Hawaii time - that would be midnight to 2 AM eastern

And when is Sunset out there?

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=20&lon=-154&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[Brent]

Sunset at Hilo at 6:53pm

[windnrain]

She's kind of laughing in the face of shear right now isn't she?

[WeatherGuesser]

Sunset at Hilo at 6:53pm

That's what I was afraid of. It could be a very long night for some.

[Alyono]

the radar seems to be down... No new images since 2316 UTC, about 30 minutes

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon is still sampling 90+ mph winds between the surface and 950mb; this will be an issue for those that live farther up in elevation on the Big Island.

[Brent]

Strengthened!!!

Hurricane ISELLE Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
Issued at 200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.9N 152.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 17 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 991 MB...29.27 INCHES

[Alyono]

70 kts now per cphc

[WeatherGuesser]

the radar seems to be down... No new images since 2316 UTC, about 30 minutes

I've got an 1851 image which should be CDT

[supercane4867]

Strengthened!!!

Hurricane ISELLE Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
Issued at 200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.9N 152.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 17 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 991 MB...29.27 INCHES

They better change forecast intensity for landfall back to hurricane in this intermediate advisory

[Yellow Evan]

Strengthened!!!

Hurricane ISELLE Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
Issued at 200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.9N 152.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 17 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 991 MB...29.27 INCHES

They better change forecast intensity for landfall back to hurricane in this intermediate advisory

They don't do that in intermediates.

[WeatherGuesser]

Almost looks like a SW kick.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

...AIR FORCE RECONAISSANCE FINDS ISELLE IS STILL A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 152.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.9 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ISELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

DATA FROM THE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT ISELLE COULD
STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND. ISELLE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARRIVING BEFORE DARK.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY
TONIGHT...AND FOR OAHU LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES TONIGHT. VERY LARGE...DAMAGING SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Yellow Evan]

Almost looks like a SW kick.

Latitude stayed the same.

[Hurricane_Luis]

From Twitter

First look at #Iselle from Pahoa, #Hawaii (Big Island)



Oddly just up the coast ther is this.

Getting worse in #Hilo, Hawaii, at this hour as #HurricaneIselle continues on a collision course with the Big Island.

[AFWeather]

It's ever so slightly to the left of the CPHC track. They may bump it south by 5 or 10 miles for the next update. But it can just as easily take a slight wobble to the right and stay on the course.

[Yellow Evan]

It's ever so slightly to the left of the CPHC track. They may bump it south by 5 or 10 miles for the next update. But it can just as easily take a slight wobble to the right and stay on the course.

It would pretty much take a S jog for it to miss Hawaii at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

Cathy Bussewitz ‏@cbussewitz 1m

Rain beginning to fall in downtown Honolulu #Iselle #Hawaii