CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

Seems odd there's so little traffic on this thread. Maybe it'll pick up tomorrow as landfall nears.

After all it is the East/Central Pacific which rarely has more than a dozen pages it seems per storm thread.

[Alyono]

it is worth noting that even the statistical models, which had been saying for days a weak to moderate TS, are now calling for a decent hurricane at landfall

[tolakram]

Live 20 frame visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=1000&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

[Alyono]

got the low down on the dropsonde/SFMR discrepency

The dropsonde was carried to a part of the eyewall NOT sampled by the SFMR. The SFMR may be working fine... just the dropsonde did not measure the same thing

[JonathanBelles]

One of the longer posts on my blog thus far: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/06/ha ... s-hoisted/

[WeatherGuesser]

Seems odd there's so little traffic on this thread. Maybe it'll pick up tomorrow as landfall nears.

After all it is the East/Central Pacific which rarely has more than a dozen pages it seems per storm thread.

Yes, but we're talking about possibly making history here.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems odd there's so little traffic on this thread. Maybe it'll pick up tomorrow as landfall nears.

After all it is the East/Central Pacific which rarely has more than a dozen pages it seems per storm thread.

Yes, but we're talking about possibly making history here.

True. It also could be our 2nd U.S. landfalling hurricane this season.

[Kingarabian]

[Janie2006]

Oh, some of us keep watch rather quietly sometimes. Iselle and Genevieve, the major games in town right now!

[Kingarabian]

Oh, some of us keep watch rather quietly sometimes. Iselle and Genevieve, the major games in town right now!

Same way I am with Atlantic hurricanes. I rarely post on those threads but I read every single comment (or try too).

[Kingarabian]

got the low down on the dropsonde/SFMR discrepency

The dropsonde was carried to a part of the eyewall NOT sampled by the SFMR. The SFMR may be working fine... just the dropsonde did not measure the same thing

So the hurricane could've been deemed stronger if Recon did not miss that spot? Or it could be that it was intensifying some what. It's all good. 80kts is pretty fair.

[CrazyC83]

Any chance Iselle could strengthen in the warmer waters near Hawaii?

[Alyono]

I'm going with 85 kts at the moment, no reason to change it from earlier

[Janie2006]

I'm surprised she's at 80-85 kts, to be honest. I had thought she might deteriorate faster than expected. One has to give these Pacific girls credit so far this season! It seems the next 24 hours will tell the tale with Hawaii and Iselle, track-wise, anyway.

[Kingarabian]

I'm going with 85 kts at the moment, no reason to change it from earlier

Alyono, hows the track going? Still think it'll just clip the big island from the south? Still appears to be moving WNW.

[Equilibrium]

Alyono do you have a idea on what should be expected with storm surge with this system.

[Kingarabian]

I'm surprised she's at 80-85 kts, to be honest. I had thought she might deteriorate faster than expected. One has to give these Pacific girls credit so far this season! It seems the next 24 hours will tell the tale with Hawaii and Iselle, track-wise, anyway.

Its presentation on AVN was so bad this morning. It really looked like a dying Tropical Storm.

[Alyono]

Not much surge due to deep waters offshore

However, 30 foot waves are a possibility

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like convection trying to ramp up right at sunset. Fascinating storm and it will be interesting to see what happens with her tomorrow. I thought she was weakening rapidly this morning followed by the sudden ramp up in organization so hopefully residents on the big Island are taking her seriously.

[CrazyC83]

The Hawaiian Islands aren't exactly surge prone, except perhaps places like Pearl Harbor from approaches from the south.