WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[jimvb]

I checked again. You are correct. The map I was looking at did not show the current position, only the projected track, which shows by tomorrow it will be a Cat 2 Typhoon. The model and official predicted tracks show that sometime today it probably will become a typhicane, then a typhoon. Some of these sites are having a hard time showing this storm because it is near the IDL. Wunderground's depiction of the GFS ensemble shows all the members zigging the storm back and forth in a weird manner.

[jimvb]

I looked up Hurricane John in 1994 and found that it crossed over and became Typhoon John, then it weakened into a tropical storm, went back east, crossed the IDL going east, then strengthened briefly, but now this time once again into Hurricane John. Are there any other storms that went from Hurricane to Typhoon to Hurricane again? My source is Wunderground's tropical cyclone archive.

[Yellow Evan]

I looked up Hurricane John in 1994 and found that it crossed over and became Typhoon John, then it weakened into a tropical storm, went back east, crossed the IDL going east, then strengthened briefly, but now this time once again into Hurricane John. Are there any other storms that went from Hurricane to Typhoon to Hurricane again? My source is Wunderground's tropical cyclone archive.

Not at that intensity.

[tolakram]

Updated back to Hurricane status. What an interesting storm.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/GENEVIEVE.php

[jimvb]

What I also find interesting is that my aunt Genevieve passed away on 2014 July 28 at the age of 89. The day after this (I believe), Tropical Storm Genevieve was born. I don't know of anyone else who had a tropical system named the day after they died.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Genevive



Eye see you. This may about to RI.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

What I also find interesting is that my aunt Genevieve passed away on 2014 July 28 at the age of 89. The day after this (I believe), Tropical Storm Genevieve was born. I don't know of anyone else who had a tropical system named the day after they died.

Sorry to hear of your aunt passing away.

[Yellow Evan]

Things are escalating pretty quickly.

EP, 07, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1780W, 75, 980, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 90, 80, 110, 1006, 220, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,
EP, 07, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1780W, 75, 980, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 60, 1006, 220, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,
EP, 07, 2014080618, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1780W, 75, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 20, 20, 45, 1006, 220, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, I'd go with 80 knts.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 062046
TCDCP2

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

GENEVIEVE HAS DEVELOPED A WARM SPOT IN RECENT INFRARED IMAGES AND A
1751 UTC GPM PASSED SHOWED A CLEAR EYE ALONG WITH GOOD EYEWALL AND
BANDING STRUCTURE. DVORAK FIXES FROM PHFO AND SAB CAME IN AT 65 KT
WHILE JTWC CAME IN AT 77 KT. THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AT 1800 UTC WAS
75 KT. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 75 KT.

GENEVIEVE HAS A MOVEMENT OF 300/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEYOND
36 HOURS...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...THEN NORTHWESTWARD FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY GREATER RIGHT TURN TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK AND THE SSTS BENEATH GENEVIEVE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST NASA SPORT ANALYSIS. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO
A PEAK AT 100 KT AT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AFTERWARD.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND BELOW THE SHIP GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GENEVIEVE TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 13.5N 178.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.6N 179.4E 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.9N 177.0E 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.2N 175.5E 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 174.6E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.7N 174.5E 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 172.0E 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 35.0N 169.0E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[jaguarjace]

[Cyclenall]

Looks like Genevieve is ready to blow its lid, small eye and impressive GPM scan. Its funny and amusing how Gene waited until the "line" to do this, it was a weak system for so long . Looks remarkably better than just 18 hours ago with its shape. Its indeed what Gil from 2013 should have been!!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Probably close to 100kt right now or it will be within a couple hours.

[Yellow Evan]

[Cyclenall]

Wow...

Probably close to 100kt right now or it will be within a couple hours.

After looking at more loops and imagery, that's the number that I was thinking . Some may disagree, but this has a shot at category 5 status.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 100-105 knts now.

Watch the CPHC go with like 90 knts.

[Yellow Evan]

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is time for a Special Advisory? Then again, it is about to leave CPHC territory so is it worth it?

[CrazyC83]

TXPN21 KNES 070013
TCSCNP

A. 07E (GENEVIEVE)

B. 06/2332Z

C. 13.7N

D. 178.8W

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED EYE IS NOW DG EMBEDDED .58 DEGREES INTO BLACK
FOR EYE NO. OF 5.5. SURROUNDING RING IS ALSO BLACK FOR NO EYE ADJ. FOR DT
OF 5.5. MET USING RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND IS NOT EVEN CLOSE AT 4.5...PT
IS LIMITED TO 5.0 PER RULES OF BEING NO GREATER THAN .5 OVER MET. FT OF
5.5 IS BASED ON DT... JUST WITHIN DEVELOPMENT RULES OF 2.5 IN 24HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/1736Z 13.1N 177.6W GMI
06/2017Z 13.4N 178.3W SSMIS
06/2058Z 13.5N 178.4W AMSU


...GALLINA