WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

I've never been this disappointed in an RMSC before aside from IMD. How the hec is that 30 knts? How? I'm really starting to question whether the CPHC should control this area of the world.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Absolutely. I would really like to know what data they are using that supports TD status.

[galaxy401]

I wonder if there will be a sudden intensification jump once this moves in the WPAC to adjust to the eye developing.

[CrazyC83]

The CPHC is just NWS Honolulu, correct? But yeah that calls for a Special Advisory.

[Hurricaneman]

This may be moved to the WPAC side later today.

As for right now I believe this is a hurricane and there is nothing to say otherwise as all the data is there to say so, this is just as bad as what the JTWC did with that WPAC storm a few days ago but as for the long run the Japanese need to watch this one

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

TXPN21 KNES 051812
TCSCNP

A. 07E (GENEVIEVE)

B. 05/1730Z

C. 11.0N

D. 172.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 2.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET AS CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

05/1416Z 10.9N 171.6W SSMI


...MCCARTHY

[CrazyC83]

Any other agencies have Dvorak numbers available? A blend of all data seems to suggest 45-50 kt.

[RL3AO]

Any other agencies have Dvorak numbers available? A blend of all data seems to suggest 45-50 kt.

JTWC was a T2.0 at 16z I think.

[CrazyC83]

Any other agencies have Dvorak numbers available? A blend of all data seems to suggest 45-50 kt.

JTWC was a T2.0 at 16z I think.

Talking about an enormous range, spreading from 30 to 60 kt. Assessing an intensity will be a challenge...

[RL3AO]

Everyone lets be careful with how we talk about the CPHC. Some criticism is fine but anything that approaches the level of being an attack on their skill and/or credibility will be dealt with harshly just like any other attack on a pro met/agency.

[RL3AO]

This may be moved to the WPAC side later today.

Current forecast doesn't show this crossing 180 until 6z on Thursday.

[CrazyC83]

An ASCAT pass (next one later today) would be very valuable considering the huge variation in Dvorak numbers.

[Kingarabian]

The CPHC is just NWS Honolulu, correct? But yeah that calls for a Special Advisory.

I'm not 100% sure but I think the NWS Honolulu works with the CPHC. My only problem with the CPHC is that they use a very outdated web page, and that they take forever to issue advisories.

Granted they don't have much storms to deal with anyways.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1724W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,

About time.

[somethingfunny]

I'm pretty sure that Genevieve has been a tropical storm for several days, it has probably been one continuously since its' most recent re-upgrade. Consistently bursting thunderstorms like those just don't occur in mere tropical depressions. The northerly shear is pretty bad and it seems like the shear is associated with Invest 93C behind it... so we'll see how well Genevieve is able to get out from underneath that. The fact that the convection is so strong and staying over the center even in the face of this shear lends more evidence to the theory that this ain't a depression and hasn't been one for a while...

JTWC mirrors EPAC intensity estimates from NHC and just converts them into JTWC advisory format and they're doing the same with CPHC. I don't think JMA will pay much attention to this system while Typhoon Halong is threatening Japan (as I suspect CPHC might put more effort into Genevieve if Iselle and Julio were not approaching) so I think JMA is just going to maintain conservative advisory assessments once Genevieve crosses the Date Line... But JTWC frequently has public disagreements with JMA unlike with the other American hurricane centers, (they even flat out refused to recognize a tropical storm JMA was warning on for several days last week) and so we might see some more interesting stuff from JTWC at that point.

[Hugo82]

Did you see the storm Animation on http://www.meteoearth.com/#/,187.15,13.54,4.89,4,1,1,1 ?
I love this interactive map.

[Cyclenall]

I've never been this disappointed in an RMSC before aside from IMD. How the hec is that 30 knts? How? I'm really starting to question whether the CPHC should control this area of the world.

I agree with Hurricane_Luis and you, I was surprised (again) to find the TD status held for such a well organized system. It did so pretty quickly. When I read "Genevieve is still a sheared TD" I literally could not believe it...I don't notice it being sheared and if there is some its not obvious or impeding. I'd go with 60 knots but considering what Bertha looked like ( , same time too!), could be close to CAT2 with its appearance! Its interesting to note that the forecast last issued shows it being 60 knots in 120 hours when it could be that strong currently!

Absolutely. I would really like to know what data they are using that supports TD status.

"DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 30 KT FOR ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY." - Makes me question dvorak even more now. That TRMM scan showed a well developed inner-core.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

I've never been this disappointed in an RMSC before aside from IMD. How the hec is that 30 knts? How? I'm really starting to question whether the CPHC should control this area of the world.

I agree with Hurricane_Luis and you, I was surprised (again) to find the TD status held for such a well organized system. It did so pretty quickly. When I read "Genevieve is still a sheared TD" I literally could not believe it...I don't notice it being sheared and if there is some its not obvious or impeding. I'd go with 60 knots but considering what Bertha looked like ( , same time too!), could be close to CAT2 with its appearance! Its interesting to note that the forecast last issued shows it being 60 knots in 120 hours when it could be that strong currently!

Absolutely. I would really like to know what data they are using that supports TD status.

"DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 30 KT FOR ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY." - Makes me question dvorak even more now. That TRMM scan showed a well developed inner-core.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SAB and TAFB are usually pretty conservative. ADT is usually spot on but sometimes has trouble dealing with a particular storm depending on what scene type it automatically detects.

[Iune]

WTPA42 PHFO 052030
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...
WITH CURVED BANDS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 2.5 FROM PHFO...
JTWC...AND SAB. HOWEVER A 1248 UTC TRMM PASS AND A 1416 UTC
SSMI PASS SHOWED A RATHER WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THUS THE
INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS DID SHOW 10
TO 15 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS GENEVIEVE MOVES INTO A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM SSTS ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. WITH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING AHEAD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO BE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...IVCN. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENEVIEVE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING INCREASING SHEAR ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTH...
AND SO THE FORECAST SHOWS THE INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. GENEVIEVE IS TRACKING WNW
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHARPER POLEWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE TRACK FORECAST IN
THE LONGER RANGE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 11.4N 173.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.0N 175.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 13.1N 178.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 14.1N 179.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.1N 177.1E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.1N 173.9E 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.2N 172.4E 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 26.5N 172.5E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Best appearance so far of TS Genevieve im the storm's history. BTW, if this were already in the WPAC, this would be given 45-60 kts in 10 min sustained.

[RL3AO]

Looking great for a 40kt TS...