CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I want to mention that I think Iselle is most likely going to repeat what Flossie did but I also want to mention the disclaimer in my signature.

If you're thinking Flossie from 2013, then I'm not seeing any indication of it turning NW east of the islands. I'm expecting Julio to make a NW turn east of Hawaii, though. I do have serious doubts about Iselle reaching Hawaii with sustained hurricane-force winds, however. It's extremely hard for a hurricane to survive coming from the E or ESE.

So the stronger it remains, the more northern track it takes. The weaker/shallower it remains, the more likely a WNW track?

[Yellow Evan]

Has recon departed yet? According to someone on AmericanWx, it has.

[Kingarabian]

Has recon departed yet? According to someone on AmericanWx, it has.

I think the NOAA plane takes off soon. Recon is for tomorrow if I'm not mistaken.

[RL3AO]

An upper level NOAA flight is currently in progress. We don't get the first typical recon mission until later tonight/tomorrow morning (mainland time)

[Kingarabian]

An upper level NOAA flight is currently in progress. We don't get the first typical recon mission until later tonight/tomorrow morning (mainland time)

What would the NOAA flight reveal?

[Yellow Evan]

I want to mention that I think Iselle is most likely going to repeat what Flossie did but I also want to mention the disclaimer in my signature.

If you're thinking Flossie from 2013, then I'm not seeing any indication of it turning NW east of the islands. I'm expecting Julio to make a NW turn east of Hawaii, though. I do have serious doubts about Iselle reaching Hawaii with sustained hurricane-force winds, however. It's extremely hard for a hurricane to survive coming from the E or ESE.

So the stronger it remains, the more northern track it takes. The weaker/shallower it remains, the more likely a WNW track?

Not sure. Regarding Julio, that has a setup more favorable for a Hawaii landfall historically, since we have a strong trough in place.

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[RL3AO]

I'm not sure what this one is up too.

FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 06/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0109C ISELLE
C. 05/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure what this one is up too.

FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 06/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0109C ISELLE
C. 05/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

I think Dr. Jeff Masters said something about a dropsnode mission a few days ago. Still a bit vague.

[RL3AO]

NOAA 49 is the G-IV plane. So now we can see what the 0z models show.

[Yellow Evan]

NOAA 49 is the G-IV plane. So now we can see what the 0z models show.

What G-IV plane?

[Kingarabian]

NOAA 49 is the G-IV plane. So now we can see what the 0z models show.

What G-IV plane?

The Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) is a high altitude, high speed, twin turbofan jet aircraft acquired by AOC in 1996. The G-IV is currently configured for operational support of the National Hurricane Center synoptic surveillance mission and is expected to provide support for NOAA programs for many years to come. This mission is designed to collect, process and transmit vertical atmospheric soundings in the environment of the hurricane. The principle tool used for this task is the GPS dropwindsonde.

The dropsonde is released from the G-IV measuring and transmitting back to the aircraft the pressure, temperature, humidity, and GPS Doppler frequency shifts as it descends to earth. The Doppler shifts are used to compute the horizontal and vertical wind components. After analysis and processing of the dropsonde data the information is formatted into a TEMP-DROP message using the standard WMO format. The TEMP-DROP message is then transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Hurricane Center for inclusion into the global and hurricane model runs. The TEMP-DROP message is also provided to the hurricane forecaster providing real-time observations depicting the synoptic patterns surrounding the hurricane.

[RL3AO]

NOAA 49 is the G-IV plane. So now we can see what the 0z models show.

What G-IV plane?

Its looks like a private jet thats decked out. Flys about 40,000 feet dropping dropsondes around the storm to improve the models by providing accurate initial conditions to the model.

[Kingarabian]

NOAA 49 is the G-IV plane. So now we can see what the 0z models show.

What G-IV plane?

Its looks like a private jet thats decked out. Flys about 40,000 feet dropping dropsondes around the storm to improve the models by providing accurate initial conditions to the model.

Yeah, haha. First class luxury.

[Yellow Evan]

NOAA 49 is the G-IV plane. So now we can see what the 0z models show.

What G-IV plane?

The Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) is a high altitude, high speed, twin turbofan jet aircraft acquired by AOC in 1996. The G-IV is currently configured for operational support of the National Hurricane Center synoptic surveillance mission and is expected to provide support for NOAA programs for many years to come. This mission is designed to collect, process and transmit vertical atmospheric soundings in the environment of the hurricane. The principle tool used for this task is the GPS dropwindsonde.

The dropsonde is released from the G-IV measuring and transmitting back to the aircraft the pressure, temperature, humidity, and GPS Doppler frequency shifts as it descends to earth. The Doppler shifts are used to compute the horizontal and vertical wind components. After analysis and processing of the dropsonde data the information is formatted into a TEMP-DROP message using the standard WMO format. The TEMP-DROP message is then transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Hurricane Center for inclusion into the global and hurricane model runs. The TEMP-DROP message is also provided to the hurricane forecaster providing real-time observations depicting the synoptic patterns surrounding the hurricane.

K, thanks. Not too familiar with recon as I would like to be as they rarely intercept my basin.

[Kingarabian]

http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/ ... PN13/KWBC/

I guess we'll have to wait for the models to tell us what all that data means.

[Kingarabian]

She looks like she's weakened some and has shrunk. I wonder if the models will back off at a hurricane landfall now.

[Yellow Evan]

She looks like she's weakened some and has shrunk. I wonder if the models will back off at a hurricane landfall now.

http://i59.tinypic.com/qnn586.gif

All in all, this was expected.

Still a fairly well defined eye.

[Kingarabian]

All in all, this was expected.

Still a fairly well defined eye.

She's achieved something we haven't seen in around 7 years. A EPAC basin crosser from the East maintaining cat.2 strength.

[Yellow Evan]

All in all, this was expected.

Still a fairly well defined eye.

She's achieved something we haven't seen in around 7 years. A EPAC basin crosser from the East maintaining cat.2 strength.

Felicia 09 was a Cat 2 upon passing 140W IIRC.

CPAC isn't a real basin anyhow.

[Alyono]

outflow expanding to the west

shear may be starting to back off a bit

remember, the dynamical models had the weakening occurring today and then steady state