CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

oh great...

Where, in Hawaii, are you?

[WeatherGuesser]

First Watches due sometime later tonight?

[supercane4867]

Latest MIMIC

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_06.gif

[hawaiigirl]

north shore Oahu

[wxman57]

north shore Oahu

Wow! I might have to come over there as your personal meteorologist! Fortunately, if Iselle stays on-track, you won't see too much impact that far north. Probably sub-tropical storm-force winds (25-35 mph) with higher gusts on the North Shore. Just let me know and I'll fly over and monitor the beach for you.

[Kingarabian]

north shore Oahu

Wow! I might have to come over there as your personal meteorologist! Fortunately, if Iselle stays on-track, you won't see too much impact that far north. Probably sub-tropical storm-force winds (25-35 mph) with higher gusts on the North Shore. Just let me know and I'll fly over and monitor the beach for you.

I live in Honolulu. How bad do you think it'll get there?

[Yellow Evan]

Good news

EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 60, 80, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

[WeatherGuesser]

I live in Honolulu. How bad do you think it'll get there?

Won't it get more or less shredded by Hawaii and Maui?

[Yellow Evan]

I live in Honolulu. How bad do you think it'll get there?

Won't it get more or less shredded by Hawaii and Maui?

The Big Island will disrupt it, yes. It'll be moving west-northwest, so it'll pass south of Maui and Oahu.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Good news

EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 60, 80, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

Yeah good call. Definitely lacks the deep convection usually associated with major hurricanes.

Anyways, I don't recall seeing so much warm water around Hawaii.



And looks like it will escape into an area with non existent shear near its center before the great Hawaiian shear kicks in.

[Yellow Evan]

Good news

EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 60, 80, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080518, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1399W, 95, 967, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1011, 190, 15, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

Yeah good call. Definitely lacks the deep convection usually associated with major hurricanes.

Anyways, I don't recall seeing so much warm water around Hawaii.

http://i.imgur.com/udaIM6C.gif

And looks like it will escape into an area with non existent shear near its center before the great Hawaiian shear kicks in.

http://i.imgur.com/hVU9fnt.png

Really has 12 hours left to weaken

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 77 69 64 55 52 46 42 39 37 34 32
V (KT) LAND 95 86 77 69 64 55 52 46 42 39 37 35 33
V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 80 74 69 62 57 54 50 47 45 42 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 6 3 5 3 8 13 14 17 19 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 0 6 2 0 -5
SHEAR DIR 233 199 201 207 72 92 243 289 287 298 322 338 343
SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.1

The Great Hawaiian Shear does not kick in till after Hawaii this time around.

[Kingarabian]

Really has 12 hours left to weaken

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 77 69 64 55 52 46 42 39 37 34 32
V (KT) LAND 95 86 77 69 64 55 52 46 42 39 37 35 33
V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 80 74 69 62 57 54 50 47 45 42 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 6 3 5 3 8 13 14 17 19 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 0 6 2 0 -5
SHEAR DIR 233 199 201 207 72 92 243 289 287 298 322 338 343
SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.1

The Great Hawaiian Shear does not kick in till after Hawaii this time around.

Well thankfully the waters in front of Iselle cannot maintain anything stronger than a Cat. 2.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has it hitting as a strong TS

[Hugo82]

Interactive Map of Iselle: http://www.meteoearth.com/#/,-120.94,21.28,3.94,4,1,1,1

[wxman57]

north shore Oahu

Wow! I might have to come over there as your personal meteorologist! Fortunately, if Iselle stays on-track, you won't see too much impact that far north. Probably sub-tropical storm-force winds (25-35 mph) with higher gusts on the North Shore. Just let me know and I'll fly over and monitor the beach for you.

I live in Honolulu. How bad do you think it'll get there?

Low-end tropical storm force sustained winds at most (35-45 mph with 50-55 mph gusts). Peak wind just before sunrise on Friday. Generally, winds will be less than TS force. You might need a personal meteorologist there, too, but I think I prefer the north shore of Oahu...

[somethingfunny]

I want to mention that I think Iselle is most likely going to repeat what Flossie did but I also want to mention the disclaimer in my signature.

[Kingarabian]

Wow! I might have to come over there as your personal meteorologist! Fortunately, if Iselle stays on-track, you won't see too much impact that far north. Probably sub-tropical storm-force winds (25-35 mph) with higher gusts on the North Shore. Just let me know and I'll fly over and monitor the beach for you.

I live in Honolulu. How bad do you think it'll get there?

Low-end tropical storm force sustained winds at most (35-45 mph with 50-55 mph gusts). Peak wind just before sunrise on Friday. Generally, winds will be less than TS force.

Thank you, sir.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting to see so many members that usually just post on Atlantic storms posting on this storms topic since it'll probably affect the Hawaiian Islands.

[wxman57]

I want to mention that I think Iselle is most likely going to repeat what Flossie did but I also want to mention the disclaimer in my signature.

If you're thinking Flossie from 2013, then I'm not seeing any indication of it turning NW east of the islands. I'm expecting Julio to make a NW turn east of Hawaii, though. I do have serious doubts about Iselle reaching Hawaii with sustained hurricane-force winds, however. It's extremely hard for a hurricane to survive coming from the E or ESE.

[Yellow Evan]

I want to mention that I think Iselle is most likely going to repeat what Flossie did but I also want to mention the disclaimer in my signature.

Possible, but conditions are more favorable this time around as well as the fact that the storm is stronger. Gonna be interesting.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.