CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Another big Hawaii threat looming.

Too early to be sure, but yes. One storm at a time though.

[Alyono]

Iselle may be just far enough north so that this can avoid the cold wake

More trouble on the horizon it appears

[jaguarjace]

WTPZ45 KNHC 040848
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Satellite images indicate that, although that the cyclone has a
large area of associated deep convection, it is somewhat lopsided
with most of the thunderstorms activity west of the center.
However, Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are both at 35 kt, and
two ASCAT passes from a couple of hours ago indicate maximum winds
of 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed is, therefore, set to 40 kt in
agreement with the ASCAT data.

Only a gradual intensification of Julio is shown over the next 36
hours due to a continuation of moderate northeasterly shear that is
currently affecting the cyclone. While there is some suggestion
that this shear could abate after this time, there is enough
uncertainty to only show steady strengthening. At long range,
the cyclone will be close to the typical sharp SST gradient over
the eastern Pacific, as well as possibly a cold wake from Iselle,
so no intensity change is indicated at that time. The latest NHC
forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, between the
latest model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

ASCAT data show that Julio is moving westward at about 11 kt. A
strong ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the
storm westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next
several days. Julio should gradually gain some latitude by the end
of the forecast period due to the orientation of the ridge, and
model guidance has shifted northward at long range on this cycle.
The NHC track forecast is also adjusted northward, but is still a
bit south of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2014080412, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1188W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 60, 1010, 270, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, M,

[RL3AO]

Obviously its early, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm get very intense. NHC already going 80kt and they've been very low on a number of storms this year. Not sure if the models are underestimating how favorable it is in the Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

Obviously its early, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm get very intense. NHC already going 80kt and they've been very low on a number of storms this year. Not sure if the models are underestimating how favorable it is in the Pacific.

There is some shear which could very well get in the way for another 36-48 hours. Thereafter, it should be very favorable, so yes, it could become a major then.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon will also fly into Julio

NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 2h
MT “@NOAA49 (@NOAA G-IV): The @NOAA_OMAO G4 team is deploying to #Hawaii to support #Iselle and #Julio forecasts pic.twitter.com/rK8xcI52LE”

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track is up to 50kts.

EP, 10, 2014080418, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1203W, 50, 1000, TS

[cycloneye]

Julio looking close to hurricane status as is organizing fast.

[cycloneye]

My question is if Hawaii had landfalls or close calls from two Tropical Cyclones in a season?

[galaxy401]

Julio looks much better now. The shear seems to have decreased. I wonder if the upwelling from Iselle will be a problem or not.

My question is if Hawaii had landfalls or close calls from two Tropical Cyclones in a season?

In 2009 Felicia and Neki got close to Hawaii but Felicia became just a remnant low and Neki stayed west of Hawaii hitting minor islands.

[supercane4867]

My question is if Hawaii had landfalls or close calls from two Tropical Cyclones in a season?

In the extraordinary period of early 90s Hurricane Orlene made landfall as a TD shortly after Iniki and the next two years also had multiple storms to affect Hawaii.

[somethingfunny]

Julio looking close to hurricane status as is organizing fast.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/143jorq.jpg

It looks like Julio just flipped the switch on.

[Alyono]

EC has this as a cat 2 striking the Big Island less than 72 hours after it has Iselle hitting as a hurricane

[TheStormExpert]

EC has this as a cat 2 striking the Big Island less than 72 hours after it has Iselle hitting as a hurricane

Does EC stand for the European model?

[cycloneye]

Now peaks as cat 2.


TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Tropical Storm Julio has become substantially better organized
during the past several hours. Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB have increased and now support an initial intensity of
50 kt. A band of deep convection is beginning to wrap most of the
way around the circulation, and a 1730 UTC ASCAT pass shows that the
low- and mid-level centers are now close to being vertically
aligned.

Julio has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now
270/14. A continued westward motion is expected for the next 5
days while the tropical cyclone moves along the southern periphery
of a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. There has been no
significant change in the model guidance for this forecast cycle,
and the official forecast now lies very near the multi-model
consensus.

The intensity forecast presents a larger challenge, and several of
the models now predict more intensification. DSHP, LGEM, and the
HWRF all suggest that Julio will become a hurricane by tomorrow
afternoon, which seems reasonable given the recent vertical
alignment of the vortex. After that, there is considerable
uncertainty as to how much additional strengthening will occur, with
DSHP forecasting a 100-kt major hurricane, and GHMI peaking at 70
kt. The official forecast splits these scenarios and peaks at 85
kt, near the intensity consensus. Late in the forecast period,
Julio is forecast to pass over cooler SSTs which should lead to
weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.5N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg

[South Texas Storms]

EC has this as a cat 2 striking the Big Island less than 72 hours after it has Iselle hitting as a hurricane

Does EC stand for the European model?

Yeah, EC is short for the ECMWF (Euro) model.

[hurricanes1234]

Very active Pacific right now. Seems as though the favourable conditions forecast were right.

[cycloneye]

Track aimed for a very close call with Hawaii.

[RL3AO]

Looks like recon is getting an extended stay in Hawaii.