CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

I'm surprised this hurricane hasn't gone under an EWRC yet. I suppose annular hurricanes don't do it as often.

To my knowledge no annular hurricane has ever undergone an EWRC and remained annular. Since one consists of a relatively large eye and attendant large, persistent convective ring surrounding it, the stable, steady-state structure of true annular storms is such that they don't go through EWRCs, unless perhaps they're in the process of losing annular characteristics (?). I've seen many storms become annular immediately after completing an EWRC, but don't remember seeing this occur afterwards.

[Alyono]

I'm surprised this hurricane hasn't gone under an EWRC yet. I suppose annular hurricanes don't do it as often.

To my knowledge no annular hurricane has ever undergone an EWRC and remained annular. Since one consists of a relatively large eye and attendant large, persistent convective ring surrounding it, the stable, steady-state structure of true annular storms is such that they don't go through EWRCs, unless perhaps they're in the process of losing annular characteristics (?). I've seen many storms become annular immediately after completing an EWRC, but don't remember seeing this occur afterwards.

Isabel may have, but I believe it was a very quick process and was barely even noticeable on satellite

[supercane4867]

What an amazing storm

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=15&lon=-137&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[tolakram]

The big picture, live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=15&lon=-137&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[Cyclenall]

It looks very amazing on satellite, hopefully it strengthens a little more before weakening! I also feel bad for Hawaii as the area seems to be in Iselle's forecast cone. Hopefully it weakens down a lot before reaching Hawaii.

I wouldn't feel bad for Hawaii, this will be a passing shower by the time it gets there. Your last sentence is what always happens when tropical cyclones approach HI from the east.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

not always

It would be a miracle if Iselle bucked the trend. One or two in recorded history were significant coming this direction, the rest were forgettable to non-Hawaiians.

There are no records of a hurricane ever striking Hawaii from the E to ESE. Iniki (1992) and Dot (1959) struck from the S and SSE. I doubt that either Iselle or Julio will survive to strike the Hawaiian islands as a hurricane. Maybe a 40-45 kt TS and rapidly weakening at landfall.

So my original position that tropical cyclones that affect HI from the east never amount of anything more than a TS was correct. This is why I don't give a CAT4 a passing thought in terms of land impacts in this region, just interested in annular hurricanes that form around here. So all those worried about this, just don't because in the end its just going to be some rain. And I've read posts saying "hope it weakens before making it to HI", well no need to hope because that's guaranteed as far as our current knowledge base and technology to forecast is concerned.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*Image Cut*

Please god no

[somethingfunny]

The fact that tropical storms are so rare in Hawaii means that it won't take a strong one to do a lot of damage. If trees have fully matured and structures have been built in an environment which never sees winds gust above 40mph, then a 70mph wind would be catastrophic.

[cycloneye]

You can follow at link below Gonzos flight to Hawaii to prepare for a mission on Tuesday.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

[Cyclenall]

oh my

Almost looks like Hurricane Katrina there, which warrants an "oh my!" .

Cloud tops warming and eye becoming smaller.

Wonder how strong this will be when I get back home at 1z.

It'll be a weak TD struggling .

Missions to Iselle on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Assured, it'll be after its peak and likely not as interesting, some things never change!

Although there is still no guarantee that Iselle would look like this tomorrow, if it is still annular this would be the first recon mission into an annular storm since.... Isabel? Also I think this would be the first upper air Gonzo flight into annular-supportive conditions ever.

Gonzo? Isn't that a genre of adult entertainment?

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galaxy401]

Missions to Iselle on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Assured, it'll be after its peak and likely not as interesting, some things never change!

Most likely but it still needs to be monitored for any potential threat for Hawaii.

[supercane4867]

Although there is still no guarantee that Iselle would look like this tomorrow, if it is still annular this would be the first recon mission into an annular storm since.... Isabel? Also I think this would be the first upper air Gonzo flight into annular-supportive conditions ever.

Hurricane Bud of 2012 had recon and was technically annular as mentioned in NHC discussion athough it didn't really look like one

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/ep ... .017.shtml?

[Alyono]

and cyclenall should be including the disclaimer with his post that flies in the face of ALL meteorological reasoning

a passing shower? yeah, a 60 kt storm is a "passing shower"

[Alyono]

the 12Z EC has this striking the Big Island. Less than 72 hours later, it has a cat 2 Julio striking the Big Island

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Iselle has an impressive signature on visible satellite imagery
with a solid central dense overcast surrounding a 25 n mi wide eye.
Final-T estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT have fallen slightly, but
the CI number remains 6.3/122 kt. Along with steady T6.0/115 kt
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 120
kt. There is not much change to the intensity forecast. Due to
its quasi-annual structure, Iselle should only gradually weaken in
the short term while it moves over marginal sea surface temperatures
and in a relatively light-shear environment. For that reason, the
NHC intensity forecast remains above the intensity guidance for the
first 24 hours. Faster weakening is expected thereafter while the
cyclone spends about 24 hours over sub-26C water. However, the
ocean warms again just to the east of Hawaii, which could allow
Iselle to maintain some intensity. After 24 hours, the NHC
intensity forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus ICON
and the statistical LGEM, which tends to do a good job at the end of
the forecast period.

Iselle has been moving due westward, or possibly even wobbled just
south of due west, during the past few hours. The initial motion
estimate is 270/9 kt, but Iselle's forward speed should begin to
decrease soon since the ridge to its north has weakened. A
mid-level anticyclone is expected to develop and strengthen between
California and Hawaii in a day or two, forcing Iselle to turn
west-northwestward and accelerate starting in 36 hours. The track
guidance has change very little on this cycle, and the updated NHC
forecast continues to bring the center of Iselle across the main
Hawaiian Islands between 72 and 120 hours.

Based on this forecast, Iselle should be crossing 140W just
before 1800 UTC on Tuesday. If this forecast holds, then the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, would assume
responsibility for Iselle and begin issuing advisories at 2100 UTC,
or 11 AM HST on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.1N 137.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.2N 138.5W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.1N 142.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.8N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
120H 09/1800Z 22.5N 164.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...WEST OF HAWAII

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tolakram]

REMINDER

The disclaimer is required when making predictions and forecasts about a storm if you are not identified as a pro-met.

[hurricanes1234]

Very impressive annular structure! I am thinking that this is bumping up the ACE a lot, along with Julio.

[Blown Away]

the 12Z EC has this striking the Big Island. Less than 72 hours later, it has a cat 2 Julio striking the Big Island

Wow, that would be incredible if that happened.

[Cyclenall]

and cyclenall should be including the disclaimer with his post that flies in the face of ALL meteorological reasoning

a passing shower? yeah, a 60 kt storm is a "passing shower"

You do realize that when I say passing shower I'm not denoting it will be a remnant low or nearly dissipated. It can be a TS and still fit that description (if its 45-60 knots then no), however its a bit tongue in cheek as TS's can produce flood threats or other issues but past history of Hawaii shows minimal impacts. If your referring to the "weak TD struggling" comment, that was a joke and I thought putting two smilies and the obvious absurd meteorological impossibility of it would be enough but I guess not here in this thread...

REMINDER

The disclaimer is required when making predictions and forecasts about a storm if you are not identified as a pro-met.

I forgot about the first one but for the second I didn't know making a joke required this so my apologies.

Just in case:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest satellite

[supercane4867]

Tiny hurricane