CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Alyono
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#221 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:09 pm

SSD data T numbers decreased to 5.0

However, I am certain this has winds of at least 105 kts
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#222 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:45 pm

I'm kinda surprise to see the track so far north. Maybe I'm overestimating the strength of the ridge.
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#223 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:48 pm

Alyono wrote:SSD data T numbers decreased to 5.0

However, I am certain this has winds of at least 105 kts


ADT is still climbing.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#224 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:57 pm

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#225 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:59 pm

Very nice looking Hurricane, SSTs look warm enough for me, maybe not reach Cat 4 but is just a matter of time before Iselle starts ingesting some of the drier & more stable air to her north & west and a gradual decrease in strength starts going.
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#226 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:23 pm

18z GFS showing possible landfall over Oahu at 120hr

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#227 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:29 pm

not going to be shear to cause the system to take on dry air
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#228 Postby Steve820 » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:42 pm

It looks very amazing on satellite, hopefully it strengthens a little more before weakening! I also feel bad for Hawaii as the area seems to be in Iselle's forecast cone. Hopefully it weakens down a lot before reaching Hawaii.
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Doesn't look very amazing, just alright

#229 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:56 pm

Steve820 wrote:It looks very amazing on satellite, hopefully it strengthens a little more before weakening! I also feel bad for Hawaii as the area seems to be in Iselle's forecast cone. Hopefully it weakens down a lot before reaching Hawaii.

I wouldn't feel bad for Hawaii, this will be a passing shower by the time it gets there. Your last sentence is what always happens when tropical cyclones approach HI from the east.

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#230 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:07 pm

not always
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Re:

#231 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:14 pm

Alyono wrote:not always

It would be a miracle if Iselle bucked the trend. One or two in recorded history were significant coming this direction, the rest were forgettable to non-Hawaiians.
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#232 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:13 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Alyono wrote:not always

It would be a miracle if Iselle bucked the trend. One or two in recorded history were significant coming this direction, the rest were forgettable to non-Hawaiians.



My thinking here as well. I still remember Jimena of 2003, Daniel of 2006, Flossie of 2007, Felicia of 2009, and Flossie of 2013.

Really tough.
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#233 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:23 pm

Reminds a lot like Isabel

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Last edited by Hurricane Alexis on Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#234 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:27 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Reminds a lot like Isabel

Image


Both annular like.
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#235 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:29 pm

Anyways, contrary to what is being displayed on AVN, microwave imagery shows a really nice core.
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#236 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:47 pm

nearly annular

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .73pc.html
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#237 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:51 pm

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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#238 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:55 pm

Down to 90kts.

EP, 09, 2014080400, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1343W, 90, 975, HU
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Re: EPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#239 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:17 pm

Image

GFS is a little more south, but the HWRF is a little more north.

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#240 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:24 pm

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 3 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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