WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ugh, weakening! But wait, Genevieve is expected to gradually intensify due to more favorable conditions AHEAD. SSTs and Vertical Wind Shear are more favorable over the west of the IDL. Genevieve is SUCH a bizarre storm.

[Cyclenall]

This TC might become what I was hoping Gil from last season would. Gil faded away and dashed that hope but we have a new one here to cross basins and cause some unique tracking.

I remember with Ioke the HWRF and GFDL were forecasting a hyper-intense, Haiyan-like storm once over the dateline, due to physical limitations...

I remembered that one as well, even thinking it was similar to Haiyan. I still don't know why these high-res models don't go past that dateline since everything outside the bubble is factored in anyways. This constraint causes models like the GFDL to forecast a monster...why exactly?

HWRF may not be overdoing it though...

[somethingfunny]

Do you have a paid Imgur or some sort of file compressor? My rehost requests have been denied lately because SSD gifs are larger than 2MB.

The GFS maintains Genevieve all the way across the Pacific. 384 hours out is complete fantasyland of course, but if this verifies then Genevieve will be in the record books for a really long time!



Genevieve is the 973mb extratropical typhoon striking Russia - for what it's worth the GFS keeps Genevieve safely away from the Marianas Islands. The 996mb low is actually 96E along with the remnants of Iselle which it absorbs after Iselle strikes Hawaii.... and that 1003mb pulling up toward Hawaii is the remnant of Julio after it also strikes Hawaii.

The less exciting model runs never get posted. I figure that I should follow up on this post and mention that no GFS run since the 8/2 0z run has brought Genevieve all the way to Asia. A deep typhoon curving northward while still safely east of the Marianas has been a consistent feature however.



Genevieve is the 977mb riding off into the Aleutian Sunset..... that 985mb over to the east is Julio.

[euro6208]

Seems like the pacific is in hyper active status right now from the West to Central and East Pacific...

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 031443
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST SUN AUG 03 2014

A 0830 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS...SAMPLING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND GENEVIEVE...SHOWED MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND
STRONGLY HINTED THAT THE LLCC WAS LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH OF 10N THAN
PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED AT THE 0600 UTC FIX TIME. A 1209 UTC VIIRS
NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGE CORROBORATED A MORE SOUTHERLY LLCC POSITION.
THIS REVELATION...ALONG WITH A COLLECTION OF 1200 UTC FIXES WITH
LATITUDES CLOSER TO 9.4N VERSUS 9.9N...MEANS THAT GENEVIEVE LIKELY
CONTINUED MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INSTEAD OF DUE
WEST. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED A BIT ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS...WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN
END OF A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING THROUGH 10N163W.
CPHC AND SAB CONTINUE TO DERIVE A CI OF 2.0...WHILE JTWC HAS
DETERMINED THAT GENEVIEVE IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. SINCE
SCATTEROMETER MISSED THE LLCC...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHEAST FLANK...WE WILL INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM AS A 30 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

GENEVIEVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. AT AND BEYOND 24 HOURS...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO
GAIN LATITUDE AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN END OF THIS RIDGE. GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH NON-STATISTICAL MODELS STILL
SHOWING A GENERAL WEST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. SINCE IT
APPEARS NOW THAT GENEVIEVE ACTUALLY CONTINUED TO LOSE LATITUDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING THE
PREVIOUS ONE FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SHORTER TRACK AT ALL TAU.

IN SPITE OF A WEAKER SYSTEM PRESENTATION VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GENEVIEVE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW EASTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT ACROSS GENEVIEVE
AT 1200 UTC. HOWEVER...SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SHEAR WILL DECREASE
BELOW 10 KT BEYOND 18 HOURS. SST VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 28C
ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING GENEVIEVE A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE STRENGTHENING BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND. THIS WILL KEEP GENEVIEVE
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 4 AS SHE NEARS THE DATELINE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 9.5N 160.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 9.4N 161.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 9.6N 164.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.1N 166.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 10.9N 169.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 12.8N 174.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 14.7N 179.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 16.3N 174.5E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[euro6208]

GFS run has this bottoming out at 939 mb typhoon southeast of Japan...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Do you have a paid Imgur or some sort of file compressor? My rehost requests have been denied lately because SSD gifs are larger than 2MB.

Genevieve is looking even better though. This is definitely a tropical storm even if CPHC has been asleep all night.



The GFS maintains Genevieve all the way across the Pacific. 384 hours out is complete fantasyland of course, but if this verifies then Genevieve will be in the record books for a really long time!



Genevieve is the 973mb extratropical typhoon striking Russia - for what it's worth the GFS keeps Genevieve safely away from the Marianas Islands. The 996mb low is actually 96E along with the remnants of Iselle which it absorbs after Iselle strikes Hawaii.... and that 1003mb pulling up toward Hawaii is the remnant of Julio after it also strikes Hawaii.

Sorry for the late response.

Imgur is a free service. If you create an account with them, the maximum file size you can upload will increase from 2mb to 5mb.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 032045
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 03 2014

GENEVIEVE BECAME RAGGED AND ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS IT MOVED SOUTH OF DUE WEST INTO A BROAD TROUGH...BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK THIS MORNING.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T1.5/25 FROM SAB...
T2.0/30 KT FROM HFO...AND TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY FROM JTWC. GIVEN ITS
TRACK RECORD OF BOUNCING BACK FROM PRIOR WEAKENING TRENDS AND THE
LATEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE HELD AT 30
KT.

GENEVIEVE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK IN THE SHORT
TERM FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MAIN
STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE DEEP RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND AT LEAST AS LONG AS GENEVIEVE REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK...A NEARLY DUE WEST MOTION WILL PERSIST AS IT REMAINS
INFLUENCED BY LOW LEVEL TROUGHING THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION
BEYOND 24 HOURS AND REMAINS NEARLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF A RELATIVELY
TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE CONSENSUS AND DYNAMIC MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STRENGTHENING OF
GENEVIEVE HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SOMEWHAT MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
ABOUT 15 KT. AS GENEVIEVE REMAINS UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER...AND SST VALUES REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS...A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE HWRF THROUGH DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 9.3N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 9.2N 162.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 9.8N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 10.5N 168.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 11.5N 171.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 177.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 15.5N 177.2E 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 16.6N 172.4E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Steve820]

This is pretty insane. I can't believe Genevieve might make it to near Japan and possibly become something strong! This might be a storm for the record books, let's just wait and see.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 040245
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 PM HST SUN AUG 03 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE HAS SHOWN ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN FLANK...WHILE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...
WITH T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...T2.0/30 KT FROM HFO...AND TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.

GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
HAVE SOME SOUTHWARD MOTION TODAY AS GENEVIEVE WAS DRAWN INTO A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE MAIN STEERING
MECHANISM WILL BE DEEP RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT IN THE SHORT
TERM...A NEARLY DUE WEST MOTION WILL PERSIST AS IT REMAINS
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH RUNNING THROUGH THE SYSTEM. IF
STRENGTHENING OCCURS AS FORECAST...GENEVIEVE WILL GAIN A LITTLE
FORWARD SPEED AND TAKE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION STARTING MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DECELERATION ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE AS THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS WEAKENED. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS AND DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS A
GREATER DEGREE OF SPREAD BEYOND DAY THREE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY CALLING FOR THE STRENGTHENING OF GENEVIEVE...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN HINDERED BY EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15
KT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARBY LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ.
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND IF THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF GENEVIEVE...
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES ARE
RUNNING IN THE 28 TO 29C RANGE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...A
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ON MONDAY THROUGH DAY FIVE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE
HWRF THROUGH 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 9.1N 162.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 9.3N 164.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 10.0N 167.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 10.8N 170.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 11.9N 173.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 14.1N 179.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 15.6N 175.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 17.4N 171.4E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 040843
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 03 2014

GENEVIEVE PRESENTS A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...WITH A LINEAR EDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR
ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SATELLITE TRENDS. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT T1.5 FROM BOTH PHFO AND SAB...WHILE JTWC FOUND TOO WEAK
TO CLASSIFY. CIMMS ADT HAS BEEN RUNNING NEAR T2.3/33 KT FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
AT 30 KT.

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AS WELL AS SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST
THAT GENEVIEVE HAS FINALLY CEASED LOSING LATITUDE...AND IN FACT HAS
PROBABLY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY STILL ENTANGLED TO SOME EXTENT WITH AN
ELONGATED WEST-EAST TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT THE RECENT MOTION
AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST
OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN DECELERATE ONCE AGAIN FROM
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE TVCN CONSENSUS AND HWRF
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY STRENGTHENING GENEVIEVE...AND DOES SO AGAIN IN THIS
CYCLE. THE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AFTER ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...
AND THE EXPECTED WEST NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES ARE RUNNING
28 TO 29C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
INITIAL RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE
HISTORY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE OVERFORECASTING STRENGTHENING...
HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALONG THE LOW EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WILL FORECAST
GENEVIEVE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE/TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY 120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 9.3N 164.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 9.7N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 10.5N 169.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 11.6N 172.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 12.7N 175.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.7N 179.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 16.5N 174.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 18.0N 170.0E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/POWELL

[Yellow Evan]

PA42 PHFO 041444
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST MON AUG 04 2014

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO PRESENT A RATHER SHEARED APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LINEAR EDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRIMARY MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 12Z CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR ESTIMATE CAME IN AT
ONLY 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...DOWN FROM 18 KNOTS SIX HOURS
EARLIER...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T1.5 FROM PHFO...SAB...AND
JTWC...WHILE THE CIMMS ADT HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T2.1/31 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AS WELL AS SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST
THAT GENEVIEVE HAS TURNED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...WITH INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN DECELERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION...BUT REMAINS VERY CLOSE AND PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 96 HOURS. A BIT MORE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
OBSERVED AT TAU 120...AND ADJUSTED THAT FORECAST POINT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
NEAR THE TVCN CONSENSUS AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN FURTHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GENEVIEVE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT SHEAR MAY
BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED BY GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...SST
VALUES ARE RUNNING 28 TO 29C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN GENEVIEVE STEADILY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INITIAL RATHER DISHEVELED
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE HISTORY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE
OVERFORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAKE GENEVIEVE A
TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO
JUST BELOW HURRICANE/TYPHOON STRENGTH BY 120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 10.0N 165.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 10.7N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 11.7N 170.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 12.8N 173.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 13.8N 176.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 178.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 17.5N 173.5E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 20.0N 169.0E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/POWELL

[jaguarjace]

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 050241
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 PM HST MON AUG 04 2014

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY DISPLACED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF GENEVIEVE AS A RESULT OF ABOUT 11 KT OF
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR BASED ON THE 5/0000 UTC UW/CIMSS
ANALYSIS. GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. AGENCY
CENTER FIXES WERE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WITH PHFO AND SAB PUTTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 30 KT AND JTWC
COMING IN AT 25 KT. BASED ON THE DVORAK DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF GENEVIEVE IS 285/14 KT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE DATELINE.
OBJECTIVE AIDS WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH MORE SPREAD...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND DAY 2 IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROJECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE
FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WHILE THE HWRF AND GFS ARE TO THE LEFT. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT IS WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT ALSO
INDICATES A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...WHICH TAKES THE CENTER FARTHER AWAY FROM WAKE
ISLAND.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...IT APPEARS THAT GENEVIEVE IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM...AGAIN...IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY FURTHER
STRENGTHENING TO TYPHOON STATUS WEST OF THE DATELINE ON DAY 4. THIS
IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 2 BUT INDICATES SLOWER
DEVELOPMENT FROM DAY 2 THROUGH 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 10.5N 168.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 11.2N 171.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 12.2N 174.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.1N 176.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.0N 179.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.7N 175.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.0N 172.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 21.0N 170.0E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[euro6208]

07E GENEVIEVE 140805 1200 10.9N 170.5W EPAC 30 1005

Very near the WPAC...

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 050845
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST MON AUG 04 2014

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO PRESENT A SHEARED APPEARANCE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF BURSTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE 05/06Z
UW-CIMMS ANALYSIS DIAGNOSED ABOUT 14 KNOTS OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...BUT RECENT GOES SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS
INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE 350-200 MB
LAYER ABOVE THE SYSTEM. THE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT
30 KT FOR PHFO/SAB...AND 25 KT FOR JTWC...WHILE A MANUAL SHEAR
PATTERN APPLICATION OF THE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
YIELDED 31 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AS WELL AS DATA FROM A RECENT TRMM PASS
YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/14. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH GENEVIEVE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIVERGE FOR THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
INTERACTION OF GENEVIEVE AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LATER PERIODS...
WITH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW INDICATING A NNW MOTION
BEYOND 96 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT NOT AS FAR
RIGHT AS TVCN. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
NORTH-NORTHWEST TURN AFTER GENEVIEVE CROSSES THE DATE LINE...
KEEPING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM WAKE ISLAND.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
GENEVIEVE TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AT VARYING RATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ASSUMING THE SHEAR CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE SYSTEM FINALLY LESSENS AT SOME POINT...WARM SSTS OF
28 TO 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL ONCE AGAIN DELAY TROPICAL STORM
STATUS UNTIL TAU 24...THEN INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER...WITH GENEVIEVE BECOMING A TYPHOON IN THE WEST PACIFIC
BY DAY 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 170.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 11.4N 172.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 12.3N 175.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 13.3N 177.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 14.2N 179.4E 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 16.1N 174.8E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 172.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.5N 170.5E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/POWELL

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 051445
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST TUE AUG 05 2014

GENEVIEVE HAS CONTINUED TO PRESENT A BURSTING PATTERN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/
ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF AN AREA OF VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE 05/12Z UW-CIMMS ANALYSIS DIAGNOSED ABOUT 12
KNOTS OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...BUT
RECENT GOES SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE 350-200 MB LAYER ABOVE
THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 30 KT FOR ALL
THREE AGENCIES...AND HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. A RECENTLY RECEIVED 1248Z TRMM PASS DOES INDICATE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LLCC OF GENEVIEVE...AND IF
CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AT ANYTIME...AND MAY BE ONE ALREADY.

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AS WELL AS DATA FROM RECENT AMSU
AND TRMM PASSES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF
285/12. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH GENEVIEVE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AND GENERALLY
SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AS GENEVIEVE
INTERACTS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST WEST
OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...THEN IS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN MODESTLY TO THE RIGHT AT DAYS 4
AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS TO THE
LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND FURTHER
TRACK SHIFTS TO THE RIGHT MAY BE NECESSARY IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT NORTH-NORTHWEST
TURN AFTER GENEVIEVE MOVES ACROSS THE DATE LINE...KEEPING THE SYSTEM
FARTHER AWAY FROM WAKE ISLAND.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
GENEVIEVE TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AT VARYING RATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE GFDL NOW SHOWS ONLY VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 40 KT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSUMING THE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE SYSTEM FINALLY LESSENS AT SOME POINT...WARM SSTS NEAR 29C ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72
HOURS...GENEVIEVE COULD BE AFFECTED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SHEAR...AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DATE LINE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FALL NEAR THE LOWER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRINGING
GENEVIEVE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...THEN
INDICATING SLOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO JUST BELOW TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 120.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 11.1N 171.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 11.7N 173.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.7N 176.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.7N 178.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 14.7N 178.7E 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.0N 175.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 21.0N 173.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 25.0N 172.0E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/POWELL

[Hurricane_Luis]

This is from a few hours ago. A 55 knot TS but the CPHC is still calling it a TD. I agree with dvorak.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2014 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 11:06:00 N Lon : 171:06:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.7mb/ 55.0kt



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I've never been this disappointed in an RMSC before aside from IMD. How the hec is that 30 knts? How? I'm really starting to question whether the CPHC should control this area of the world.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah...definitely a 30kt cyclone...



Let's start at 60kt.