CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS brings this as a weakening TS in a Felecia 09-like track



0z GFS shows a more southerly track and a stronger landfall

[Alyono]

recon scheduled to investigate on Tuesday

I wonder if the G-IV will also be deployed. Could be similar to Flossie in 2007 where half the felet is sent to Hawaii, leaving the Atl short handed

[Equilibrium]

Hits from the south.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

Based on the ADT and all data, I would also go with 105 kt right now.

[somethingfunny]

recon scheduled to investigate on Tuesday

I wonder if the G-IV will also be deployed. Could be similar to Flossie in 2007 where half the felet is sent to Hawaii, leaving the Atl short handed

With all due respect to the fantastic job that the recon teams are doing to cover Bertha and the continuing impacts to the Turks and Caicos, I don't think it would be a problem if recon abandoned the Atlantic entirely this week.

[Yellow Evan]

recon scheduled to investigate on Tuesday

I wonder if the G-IV will also be deployed. Could be similar to Flossie in 2007 where half the felet is sent to Hawaii, leaving the Atl short handed

They still were able to fly into Dean and Erin in 2007 despite being shorthanded.

I'd send about 3 aircraft there if I was who is deciding this.

[Yellow Evan]

recon scheduled to investigate on Tuesday

I wonder if the G-IV will also be deployed. Could be similar to Flossie in 2007 where half the felet is sent to Hawaii, leaving the Atl short handed

With all due respect to the fantastic job that the recon teams are doing to cover Bertha and the continuing impacts to the Turks and Caicos, I don't think it would be a problem if recon abandoned the Atlantic entirely this week.

They should abe able to fly into Bertha for another 3 days. I believe they can do two storm at a time recon for around 10 days (four times a day).

Then, they'll probs start flying into 97E/Julio.

[Yellow Evan]

Hits from the south.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What model is that?

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC brings it a tad north of the island

[Hurricane_Luis]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 031433
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

...ISELLE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 132.8W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[euro6208]

With all of these models supposedly showing a hurricane or even a tropical storm, I wouldn't be surprised if these storms turn out weaker due to shear and dry air...Historically, storms that nears hawaii weaken or degenerate...

[hurricanes1234]

Iselle is a major hurricane! What a shocker for a storm predicted to attain Category 1 status initially!

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

It hasn't been particularly steady, but Iselle continues on a
gradual strengthening trend. The eye has cleared out in infrared
satellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become a little
more symmetric. Dvorak estimates are now T5.5/102 kt from SAB,
T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, and near 110 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.
Therefore, the maximum winds are set at 100 kt as a blend of these
numbers, making Iselle a major hurricane.

The intensity forecast has been complicated. Iselle continues to
push through the peak intensities shown in previous model cycles,
so apparently the environment has been a little more favorable than
expected. Vertical shear has decreased since yesterday, but still
the latest model runs do not show any additional intensification,
presumably because the thermodynamic environment is becoming more
marginal. The NHC forecast maintains Iselle at 100 kt for the next
12 hours and then only gradually weakens it through 48 hours, but
given the hurricane's history, I can't rule out some additional
strengthening in the short term. Interestingly, the statistical
models are stronger than the dynamical models during the first 48
hours, but the scenario flip-flops on days 3 through 5 with the
dynamical models maintaining a stronger cyclone as Iselle
approaches the Hawaiian Islands. For now, the NHC forecast closely
follows the intensity consensus ICON and is unchanged from the
previous advisory beyond 48 hours.

The initial motion is 280/9 kt. Ridging to the north of Iselle is
expected to maintain a westward heading for the next 3 days, but
the forward motion will decrease in about 36 hours as that ridge
weakens. After day 3, Iselle is forecast to turn west-
northwestward and accelerate when a mid-level high develops halfway
between Hawaii and California. The track models are in good
agreement for the entire forecast period, but as mentioned in the
previous advisory, a slight northward adjustment was needed in the
official forecast on days 4 and 5 to account for recent model
trends.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.5N 132.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.6N 134.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 136.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.7N 137.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.8N 139.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 16.5N 143.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[euro6208]

No mention of very dry air as per latest NHC discussion...

[Yellow Evan]

With all of these models supposedly showing a hurricane or even a tropical storm, I wouldn't be surprised if these storms turn out weaker due to shear and dry air...Historically, storms that nears hawaii weaken or degenerate...

Shear is not too strong this time around.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like we have our 3rd major of 2014.

[cycloneye]

The Gulfstream jet (Gonzo) has been added to go departing on the 5th and arriving around 00z on the 6th. The Air Force mission continues to go on the 6th at 06z.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A G-IV MISSION DEPARTING
PHNL AT 05/1730Z FOR 06/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE ISELLE NEAR
16.3N 142.4W AT 06/0600Z.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF does not weaken it much after day 3.



GFDL has it moving a little faster and stronger.

[Ntxw]

Another major for the EPAC! Though any given year a strike for Hawaii quite low, these systems definitely warrant a raised eyebrow

[Yellow Evan]

Probs still intensifying, but close to its peak.

[Alyono]

0Z EC has 70-75 kt winds for the Big Island at landfall