CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

At this point, I would not be shocked if this becomes our 3rd major of the season

[Kingarabian]

The stronger it remains, the more of a pull it will feel from the north. That ECMWF track a couple of days ago seems to be taking place.

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[Kingarabian]

At this point, I would not be shocked if this becomes our 3rd major of the season

It certainly could if it can develop and maintain deep convection from the west.

[hurricanes1234]

Why is recon going to Iselle?

[Yellow Evan]

Why is recon going to Iselle?

Long-range Hawaii threat.

[Yellow Evan]

The stronger it remains, the more of a pull it will feel from the north. That ECMWF track a couple of days ago seems to be taking place.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the ridge will remain too strong for it to turn north. At this time of year, troughs don't dig that deep.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Why is recon going to Iselle?

They usually ignore EPAC basin crossers unless the threat of a hurricane starts to become a reality. The track has shifted more north and Iselle is expected to maintain if not gain strength.

[Kingarabian]

The stronger it remains, the more of a pull it will feel from the north. That ECMWF track a couple of days ago seems to be taking place.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the ridge will remain too strong for it to turn north. At this time of year, troughs don't dig that deep.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think it will make that much of a sharp turn to the north, but I think it can take a NNW track just enough to poise a threat. I think this is why recon has been sent. NHC saw a possibility. If you look at past model runs, some models had this going over the Hawaiian Islands.

[Yellow Evan]

The stronger it remains, the more of a pull it will feel from the north. That ECMWF track a couple of days ago seems to be taking place.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the ridge will remain too strong for it to turn north. At this time of year, troughs don't dig that deep.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think it will make that much of a sharp turn to the north, but I think it can take a NNW track just enough to poise a threat. I think this is why recon has been sent. NHC saw a possibility. If you look at past model runs, some models had this going over the Hawaiian Islands.

Yea, most models brings it close as a TS (which I check very often), I'm just not sure why they don't show weakening, so as of right mow, I'm a little skeptical it;ll make it that far west. The Great Hawaiian Shear is still out there (abliete weaker than it was during Wali), and topography limits your chances at a Hawaii landfall (the Big Island seems to send the LLC either north or south, see the last two Flossie's for proof).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Why is recon going to Iselle?

They usually ignore EPAC basin crossers unless the threat of a hurricane starts to become a reality. The track has shifted more north and Iselle is expected to maintain if not gain strength.

Flossie 13 didn't even get recon.

[Kingarabian]

Why is recon going to Iselle?

They usually ignore EPAC basin crossers unless the threat of a hurricane starts to become a reality. The track has shifted more north and Iselle is expected to maintain if not gain strength.

Flossie 13 didn't even get recon.

Thankfully they didn't. Would've been a waste of money. I think the NHC has a pretty good idea on when to send or not send.

[Yellow Evan]

They usually ignore EPAC basin crossers unless the threat of a hurricane starts to become a reality. The track has shifted more north and Iselle is expected to maintain if not gain strength.

Flossie 13 didn't even get recon.

Thankfully they didn't. Would've been a waste of money. I think the NHC has a pretty good idea on when to send or not send.

I don't think it would have been a waste. It could have helped the CPHC a bit, which had trouble with it (then again it has trouble with all systems). After all, it arguably made landfall (or at least a direct hit) on the the US.

[Kingarabian]

I don't think it would have been a waste. It could have helped the CPHC a bit, which had trouble with it (then again it has trouble with all systems). After all, it arguably made landfall (or at least a direct hit) on the the US.

Yeah. I was begging for recon last year but they had to go through sequestration. I actually remember them saying something about wanting to send recon for Flossie. This year seems to be different.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think it would have been a waste. It could have helped the CPHC a bit, which had trouble with it (then again it has trouble with all systems). After all, it arguably made landfall (or at least a direct hit) on the the US.

Yeah. I was begging for recon last year but they had to go through sequestration. I actually remember them saying something about wanting to send recon for Flossie. This year seems to be different.

They probs have extra funds left over from last season.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's deepening again right now with deep convection building south of the eye and moving west. Shear from the NE is evident.




ADT raw T# up to 6.0. I think it'll level off at 5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it's deepening again right now with deep convection building south of the eye and moving west. Shear from the NE is evident.




ADT raw T# up to 6.0. I think it'll level off at 5.5.

We could see a major tonight at this rate.

[Yellow Evan]

[supercane4867]

CIMSS analysis indicate just over 10kt of shear on Iselle with a large anticyclone building to its west which will improve the upper environment by then.
The peak intensity should be at least 95kt if not already stronger.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS analysis indicate just over 10kt of shear on Iselle with a large anticyclone building to its west which will improve the upper environment by then.
The peak intensity should be at least 95kt if not alrealy stronger.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm pretty sure this will be a major. Shear is gonna decrease a bit, SST's will decrease, but as Daniel 12 proved, it may not stop it from intensifying.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hawaiigirl]

Hmmm I wonder how hard this will hit Oahu.