WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300946 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTION TO HEADER

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Halong is messed up. There is moderate shear from the Northwest hampering intensification, I initially have thought that Halong is already a typhoon. Right now, this does not look like 55 kts at ALL. This is good news for those in Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan.

If you look at radar, 55 knots is right in line which shows a well defined eye and healthy eyewall. Although i'm thinking this might be a bit low, I'm thinking it's at least 65 knots despite it's satellite presentation...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Halong is messed up. There is moderate shear from the Northwest hampering intensification, I initially have thought that Halong is already a typhoon. Right now, this does not look like 55 kts at ALL. This is good news for those in Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan.

If you look at radar, 55 knots is right in line which shows a well defined eye and healthy eyewall. Although i'm thinking this might be a bit low, I'm thinking it's at least 65 knots despite it's satellite presentation...

The convection in satellite presentation is push to the SE of the system center. That is a result of shear, but is not evident on RADAR.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

JMA:

TS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 10:05 UTC, 30 July 2014

<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°25'(14.4°)
E143°55'(143.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE330km(180NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 31/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E139°30'(139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E138°10'(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS forecast a strong typhoon for Japan...

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wrfym_jgreA#t=10[/youtube]

Amazing footage from renowed hurricane chaser Jim edds in Guam for Halong...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 301001Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THIS IMAGE SHOWS STRONGER,
DEEPER CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO THE 300034Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWING WEAKER WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE TUTT HAS WEAKENED
AND SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
DEPICTS THIS NORTHERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND
AND SHEARING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE
AND AND RECENT RADAR FIXES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION (30/12Z). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 11W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT POLEWARD AS THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION (INVEST 96W) TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 WITH UKMO AND
GFDN TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND MAKES MORE
METEOROLOGICAL SENSE WITH THE RESPECT TO HOW THE MONSOON DEPRESSION
WILL INFLUENCE THE STEERING PATTERN. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT STRUGGLES WITH THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BY TAU 24 AS
THE VWS RELAXES.
C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND UKMO, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSITY FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Eye moving away...

[euro6208]

Intense typhoon down to 936 mb...

[euro6208]

Almost an utter silence right now. My ears got used to the sound of strong winds, heavy rains with some breaking of the branches but totally dead silence now. It's that feeling and sound that makes me think something major might come this way next few weeks...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CREATED
HIGH LEVELS (30 PLUS KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC BECOMING
VISIBLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THE LLCC
IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED AS THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REFLECT A WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STEERING LEVEL CHANGE. TS 11W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STR
WILL BUILD WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 96W) TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTH KOREA. AFTER TAU 48, THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED
WITHIN THE WESTERLY JET AND TRACKING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE STR TO SHIFT, ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PAST TAU 72. THE HIGH LEVELS OF VWS WILL PREVENT A QUICK
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SEE
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS, ALLOWING A DECREASE IN VWS AND A PERIOD OF
QUICKER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFDN, COTC, AND UKMO, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSITY FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Outer feeder band dumping plenty of rain since the early morning.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Halong is starting to look better after a sudden, big burst of convection popped near the LLC and there are already organization amd possible intensification. It's weird because the storm is located in an area of unfavorable wind shear, please tell me why??

[Hurricane_Luis]

According to this the wind shear is going to increase to 60kts.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED WHICH HAS OBSCURED THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311037Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED WHILE BEGINNING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A
POSITION FIX FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION
WHILE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
DEPICTS STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES
TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GROW. TS 11W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AND WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION
INTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DESPITE THE NORTHERLY VWS, WILL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION REACHING 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WEAKENED PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND SLIGHTLY DIVERGES AFTER
WHICH WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AS IT
MODIFIES AND WEAKENS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

06Z has this bottoming out at 935 mb just east of Okinawa and a monster typhoon plowing into Shikoku Japan, 948 mb!

[euro6208]

Despite strong shear, Halong is organizing and an developing eye is evident...

Seems to be cocooning itself...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA 85 knots forecast is stronger than JTWC 85 kts.

And BTW,

STS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 1 August 2014

<Analyses at 01/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E135°50'(135.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E134°40'(134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive. Looks like an eye is forming, then. Could we have a typhoon soon?