2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

What?

Another Typhoon? Fengshen?

[euro6208]

Very active period with 3 (Matmo, Neoguri, Rammasun) typhoons, 2 of them Category 4 Super Typhoons (Rammasun, Neoguri) and possible 2 more typhoons in the wake of this latest MJO.

Models hinting of a return by late August...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Lack of Kelvin Wave should hamper development of other TC as browns and pink cover the basin.

[euro6208]

Hurricane Ana from the CENPAC....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has future typhoon Ana from the CPac as a strong typhoon. I am eager for it to become an invest and track it throughout the storm's life cycle and it is interesting....

[euro6208]

Meteorologist Chip Guard, NWS Guam Senior Warning Coordinator talking about the future after Tropical Storm Halong's impact to the Marianas...

Guam can expect to see multiple storms through December and possibly into January.

Guam should expect three to four monsoons, three to four tropical storms and at least a couple typhoons before the end of the year.

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CONTINUING WESTWARD THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

Surface charts showing a LPA near Pohnpei and look at that train extending to the EPAC!

[euro6208]

MJO over the Western Pacific but should start to weaken.

Looks like it won't until late August when the next wet phrase arrives...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS showing Fengshen northeast of Guam and either a CPAC or WPAC depression in the WPAC but doesn't do much with it



A closed area of low pressure just west of the dateline but very long range...

EURO doesn't show anything in their latest run...

[euro6208]

latest has Fengshen developing north of the Marianas while possible Tropical storm Ana or Kalmaegi is west of dateline...



Fenghsen quickly strengthens to 967 mb and Ana/Kalmaegi strengthens a bit more



Fengshen moves north and dissipates while Ana/Kalmaegi bottoms out and recurves...

[euro6208]

Another typhoon as per latest run...Fengshen...

[Hurricane_Luis]

For those who are not sure the, WPACs most eastern boundary is the International Date Line or 180W. East of the 180W is the CPAC.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/images/TCcentres_2.JPG

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06z GFS has a system from the ePac [Genevieve] intensifying into a strong typhoon and deepening to 943 mbs over the open West Pacific.

[euro6208]

Quickly caught a glimpse of the latest model run...

Shows Fengshen, moderate tropical storm that recurves out to sea north of the Marianas...

[somethingfunny]

That storm you're referring to as Fengshen is actually 07E/Genevieve, euro...

[euro6208]

That storm you're referring to as Fengshen is actually 07E/Genevieve, euro...

Fengshen is the one east of Halong. Bottoms out at 988mb... Genevieve is around the dateline...

[euro6208]

Well latest GFS has an even weaker system for supposedly *fengshen*...only peaks out at 1003 mb...nothing much...

It does have a fair amount of divergence and vorticity is very strong and not to mention shear is low moderate and decreasing along the possible path...

[somethingfunny]

I think that Invest 91C, the system immediately west of Genevieve, is the system that the GFS is picking up. 93C between Genevieve and Iselle is also making some model noise, I saw some runs in which it actually absorbs the post-Hawaii remnant low of Iselle as 93C rides the southern easterlies.

All of these crossover storms are making me think we should just merge the WPAC forum with the ATL/EPAC/CPAC forum.