ATL: BERTHA - Models

[stormlover2013]

Models will good a good grasp once something develops, I mean I don't buy any model run untill I see that it's developed, I will say this though euro has been the best model this year but it's not always right.

[MGC]

I would not get too excited about any model run this far out until the Gulfstream samples the upper air. Lots can change in the coming days. I have lost track of the number of times the models early on have the system recurving too soon. If the models start trending westward with every run we may have to start really paying attention. Who knows, there is even a chance 93L could poof, but with the way it is looking this evening I doubt it.......MGC

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS (48hrs.) has it weaker than the 18z did at the same timeframe.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS (96hrs.) has it a good 11mb's weaker than the 18z did.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS (138hrs.) has it further north and weaker than 18z.

[Alyono]

nearly all 0Z guidance, aside from SHIPS, is a LOT weaker

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

Another look at the 0z ensemble members, you can see that the majority of the members have a more western track while the operational run is with the least members with a track to the right.

[NDG]

Even though the 0z Euro was weaker than its previous 12z run, it tracks 93L's vorticity further north and east than its previous run but still forecasts it to track over the Bahamas.

[NDG]

06z GFS, further west than its previous 0z run, but weaker.

[NDG]

Looking at the HWRF 06z run as it comes in is not aggressive at all with 93L compared to yesterday's runs. It shows it struggling during the day on Wednesday with dry air.

[Blown Away]

06z... Farther west...


06z... Big drop off in intensity...


06z...


06z...

[Equilibrium]

[cycloneye]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 291250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932014) 20140729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140729 1200 140730 0000 140730 1200 140731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 39.1W 10.2N 42.2W 10.5N 45.6W 10.9N 48.9W
BAMD 9.6N 39.1W 9.8N 41.6W 10.0N 44.0W 10.3N 46.3W
BAMM 9.6N 39.1W 9.8N 41.6W 9.9N 44.1W 10.4N 46.5W
LBAR 9.6N 39.1W 9.5N 42.4W 9.5N 45.7W 9.7N 48.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140731 1200 140801 1200 140802 1200 140803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 52.0W 12.3N 56.9W 14.7N 62.3W 17.9N 67.8W
BAMD 10.9N 48.4W 12.8N 52.4W 16.0N 56.9W 19.6N 61.2W
BAMM 11.0N 49.0W 13.0N 54.0W 16.5N 59.2W 20.1N 64.2W
LBAR 10.0N 51.7W 10.8N 57.0W 13.3N 61.5W 0.0N 0.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 39.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NDG]

Notice that the SHIPS show the easterly shear to stay through the next 24-36 hrs before dropping, the system speeding up might help, IMO.

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL932014  07/29/14  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    37    40    44    52    61    69    74    78    77    79    79
V (KT) LAND       30    33    37    40    44    52    61    69    74    78    77    79    79
V (KT) LGE mod    30    32    35    37    40    45    52    61    72    80    84    84    82
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        23    23    19    19    21    11     9     3    11    10    12    20    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     2     0     0     3     3     0     1     0     4     0     0
SHEAR DIR         52    57    55    46    40    41     8   342   297   216   209   189   205
SST (C)         27.1  27.1  27.2  27.3  27.5  27.6  27.6  27.6  27.6  27.7  28.0  28.0  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   127   127   128   129   131   132   133   133   134   135   139   139   143
ADJ. POT. INT.   132   129   129   131   133   134   134   135   135   136   139   136   137
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     6     6     7     7     8     9    10    11    11    12    12
700-500 MB RH     63    60    60    60    59    60    60    56    52    47    45    44    42
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    11    11    11    12    13    16    17    17    17    15    15    15
850 MB ENV VOR    38    36    31    22    18    14    12     7    -4   -17   -37   -43   -64
200 MB DIV        48    19    24    -7   -24   -30   -21     3    15    34    20    39    16
700-850 TADV      -8   -10    -8    -7    -7    -5    -3    -5     0     2     7     5     8
LAND (KM)       1390  1333  1208  1100  1002   867   793   765   703   553   522   179   177
LAT (DEG N)      9.6  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    16    13    13    13    13    13    13    15    16    17    17    16    15
HEAT CONTENT       3     3     4     5     7    31    16    27    25    34    18    37    57

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  522  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  70.0 (MEAN=65.0)



[Blown Away]

12z...


12z... Nearly all the models maintain at least TS status compared to 06z...

[NDG]

What a change of heart the HWRF has had in less than 24 hrs, just wow!

[meriland23]

Is this moving too fast towards the west to develop? I mean last I checked it was RACING.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: What a change of heart the HWRF has had in less than 24 hrs, just wow!

until the hwrf scores two wins in a season(one could be luck) then it should really be looked at as entertainment only

[Blown Away]

GFS Ensembles...