WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

becoming better organized

[Equilibrium]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272226 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
826 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. BOTH
SAIPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS INDICATE WAVES OF 7 TO 8 FEET AND SOME
NEAR 9 FEET ARE PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS PATCHY RAIN AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IR SHOWS ONLY
PATCHY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...MAINLY NEAR
SAIPAN. MUCH HEAVIER CONVECTION THATS ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC INVEST
AREA 90W IS EDGING OUR WAY ACROSS 150E BETWEEN 10N AND 15N. THE
RITIDIAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FT MAINLY
FROM SW...AND TANAPAG SHOWS SEAS NEAR 7 FT.

DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE MARIANA FORECAST ZONES AND ESPECIALLY INVEST 90W...WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N151E. INVEST 90W IS STILL DEVELOPING SLOWLY AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SIMILAR
IDEAS ABOUT 90W MOVING ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN
ITS EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
GFS SOLUTION AND 90W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM WATERS. MARINE GRIDS
ARE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD RESULT IN
GREAT DIFFERENCES FOR WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS WEEK. IF 90W DEVELOPS MUCH AT ALL...THEN SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY...AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVES GRIDS FOR THAT LIKELIHOOD.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WERE MADE AS THE
GENERAL WEATHER SETUP REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF
CHUUK REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE
WILL PULL NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO
CONTINUE FILTERING IN ACROSS THIS REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF
MAJURO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WAVE
MODELS SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT KOSRAE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL.
MEANWHILE AT POHNPEI...HAZARDOUS SURF ON WEST-FACING SHORES WILL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE TODAY WITH SURF FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR HAS MADE LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS TAPERED OFF AT YAP AND KOROR SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SLOWLY FILLING
IN AGAIN THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED AT BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE DISTURBANCE AND
MONSOON TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH DRIER WEATHER
BUILDING IN BY WEDNESDAY. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE
BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR CHUUK...FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA AS THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. SHOWER
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCALED BACK BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
MODEL GUIDANCE. A DRIER PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CHUUK BY WEDNESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
BOATS FOR THE REGION. SIMILARLY...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/M. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 151.4E TO 14.5N 145.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
272330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
150.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CIRCULATION SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE SSTS AND IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LLCC STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290130Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Becoming better organized with increased banding and convection persisting over an increasingly symmetric circulation...

[euro6208]

GFS wants to take this into Saipan and Tinian...

[euro6208]

Latest:

20140727 2101 11.7 -151.0 T1.5/1.5 90W 90W
20140727 1432 11.3 -152.0 T1.0/1.0 90W 90W

TXPQ22 KNES 272126
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 27/2101Z

C. 11.7N

D. 151.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...LLC POSITION HELPED BY THE TMI 27/1926Z AND THE SSMIS
27/1828Z MICROWAVE PASSES. CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 1.5. MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FINAL-T BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/1828Z 11.9N 150.6E SSMIS
27/1926Z 11.8N 150.8E TMI


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 280222
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1222 PM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

GUZ001>004-290200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1222 PM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK HEADING TOWARD THE
MARIANAS...

AT 1130 AM CHST THIS MORNING...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12 DEGREES NORTH AND 150 DEGREES EAST...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
330 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS
CIRCULATION IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG THE WIND THREAT
WILL BE FOR THE MARIANAS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM
EXPECTS AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN SOMETIME TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THE ISLANDS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

STANKO

[Equilibrium]

GFS a few days ahead.

[euro6208]

The rain has continued to fall during the past couple of days and should get worse as *Halong* moves out way...

000
FPMY70 PGUM 280226
NOWMY

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1226 PM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

GUZ001-PMZ151-280500-
GUAM-GUAM WATERS-
1226 PM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 300 PM...TWO LINES OF SHOWERS WILL CONVERGE OVER GUAM. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WATCH FOR LOW VISIBILITIES AND
PONDING ON ROADS. SEEK SHELTER IN A CAR...HOUSE OR BELOW DECK IF YOU
SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

Slightly more organized. I'm smelling 11W later on today...

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 280600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 160E 36N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 42N 151E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 45N 159E ENE 20 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 45N 173E NORTH 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 19N 133E NNW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 151E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 28N 159E EAST SLOWLY.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 159E TO 43N 163E 40N 166E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 159E TO 40N 156E 35N 148E 32N 135E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140728 0600 11.5N 149.9E WPAC 20 1005

Center just southeast of Guam...

[euro6208]

Ohhhh can't wait for this rain and winds thats coming my way

[euro6208]

20140728 0232 11.4 -149.6 T1.5/1.5 90W 90W
20140727 2101 11.7 -151.0 T1.5/1.5 90W 90W
20140727 1432 11.3 -152.0 T1.0/1.0 90W 90W

[euro6208]

06Z showing quick strengthening from now to landfall as it deepens it to 978mb north of Guam or directly over Rota...



Quite Large...



Copius amounts of rainfall...

[euro6208]

[Equilibrium]

90W looks to have organised quite alot over the past few hours on satellite presentation.
Convention is firing up with some big tots.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

Loving this weather. Another round of showers have developed over Guam and as this system moves closer, flooding is likely...

[Equilibrium]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 28/0130Z
TPPN11 PGTW 281215

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 28/1132Z

C. 12.2N

D. 149.4E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SCHALIN

[euro6208]

Watching closely for the next update, 12Z for an upgrade


07E GENEVIEVE 140728 0600 12.7N 144.8W EPAC 25 1007
08E HERNAN 140728 0600 19.5N 113.9W EPAC 60 994
90W INVEST 140728 0600 11.5N 149.9E WPAC 20 1005
91C INVEST 140728 0600 9.9N 160.1W CPAC 25 1008
93E INVEST 140728 0600 14.7N 133.8W EPAC 30 1007
93L INVEST 140728 0600 10.3N 31.2W ATL 20 1013
96W INVEST 140728 0600 18.1N 133.8E WPAC 20 1004