Texas Summer - 2014

[Tireman4]

Tim Heller, our KTRK OCM, says no cold/cool air for Houston yet again. From his Facebook page:

Your Facebook friends up north are going to get a break from the summer sizzle! Another strong cool front will push south across the U.S. next week. Like the last cool front, this one gets close enough to give us a chance of rain next Tuesday and Wednesday. But the cool air won't reach Houston.



https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather

[dhweather]

Last night we had the outflow boundary from the storms to our east plow through - literally. Winds gusting into the 50's, blew stuff all over the place. Best part of all, we lost electricity for almost 9 hours. No lightning, no rain, "just" an outflow boundary.

[gboudx]

I had heard from some friends that a lot of Rockwall/Heath lost power. We didn't but we aren't served by Oncor. At some point during last week's weather, we must've lost power at our house because when we came back from vacation, the garage fridge had no power. The breaker tripped and we lost everything in the fridge. A brisket, boudin and deer sausage. I almost cried.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One thing ive noticed this summer is the clouds come in much quicker. Instead of clouds forming at around 1:30 - 2:00, clouds are forming at around 10:00 here. Makes for a much lower electricity bill for sure. Also, nat gas should continue to drop massively. We are producing so much nat gas here in the US due to fracking. I expect it back to the $2 region before winter, but with the expected cold winter, i think it will spike upwards again.

Im a Private Wealth Manager so i have a little bit of street cred in that area.

[dhweather]

If winter 2014-15 is anything like 2013-14, I cannot imagine how high LPG prices will rise. Several states declared LPG emergencies because of the brutal cold and lack of supply because of overwhelming demand.

[Texas Snowman]

From the CPC. Makes you think of winter PWC mets been getting some practice, can we dub it severe summer cold outbreak?

Recent quote heard from the weather lab of Wxman57: "Shiver me timbers!!!! Where did my weather machine go?!?"

[Ntxw]

Those outflow boundaries and drier air resulting from the MCS yesterday made a forecast challenge for today, at least in North Texas. Heat advisory was canceled and instead of 100-103 it remained in the mid 90s. A few more days of climbing before pattern change hits earlier to mid next week where highs may get stuck in the 70s again.

Euro begins sliding anomalous cold temperatures from the Arctic to near the Hudson bay (not the one next week but the one after, so yes there is likely another deep trough lurking after this one). Fall like temperatures will occur over Canada and Lakes. Blocking returns to Western Canada and rinse, repeat pattern. Quite likely July will finish below average (one of the rare occurrences) and August will likely follow as fall may come early this year.

[Ntxw]

Latest from the CPC, ENS looks almost identical

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose concurs with what has been said for a while. I'm seeing some consistency among the forecasters/meteorologists.

A stronger cold front is forecast to spread south across the area next Thursday, causing a fairly good chance for rain Thursday through next Saturday. Some solutions indicate this could be a fairly wet period. High temperatures will fall to the low 90s with low temperatures around 70 degrees. Long-range forecasts indicate below normal temperatures will continue into the first week of August.

The unusual summer of 2014 continues. (And I'm not complaining).

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Tireman4]

Tim Heller, our local OCM in Houston is still saying, no cool air for Houston.

Hottest temps this summer (so far!) coming up this weekend and early next week. Heat Index will hit 100-106° every afternoon. A cool front brings rain late next week....but no cool air.


https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS WE LIE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED INLAND DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OFF TO THE WEST. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR IAH AND POINTS NORTHWARD FOR NOW.

38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT QUITE AS MUCH CONVECTION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY WITH ONLY
ONE SHOWER FORMING ON THE LAND BREEZE IN THE UPPER TX COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST ALONG THE COAST WITH 00Z
LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT 2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER.
CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER FARTHER INLAND. UPPER LEVEL 500MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES STRETCHING INTO THE N TX.
THINK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY
BE A STRAY OR ISO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PUTTING IN THE
FORECAST AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY IF ANY.

SYNOPTIC MODELS BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER N TX TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S BUT DO NOT THINK THE CENTURY MARK WILL BE IN REACH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES HOWEVER SHOULD APPROACH 105 INSTEAD OF 101/102
LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DROP SE TOWARDS LAKE
MICH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
BY MONDAY BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGE
FROM W TX INTO THE N ROCKIES. LOOK FOR NW FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR THE RIDGE TO STAY WEST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR TWO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WED INTO THUR.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALSO OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AREA ALL PUSHING
THE FRONT INTO THE AREA FASTER THAN BEFORE AND STALLING IT ON TUE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF OVER 2
INCHES REMAIN INVOF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE BEGINNING TUE. THERE IS
SOME DRIER AIR THAT MOVES INTO SE TX BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH IT UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX LATE WED INTO THUR. WILL KEEP SOME 30
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THUR AND THEN 20 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH MAY FURTHER BROADEN OVER THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38









http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[weatherdude1108]

EWX discussion this morning:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP.
BY MID MORNING...MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE/ERODE WITH
FEW CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND 5-6KFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACCORDING TO
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS-SECTIONS. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN
STORE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS TWO-THIRDS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND NEAR 102 IN THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH REST OF THE AREA
STAYING DRY...HOT AND HUMID. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EAST AND
NEAR 102 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKES
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF CONUS. IN ADDITION...AN UNSEASONABLE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND
STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY. AS THIS HAPPEN...RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTHWARD WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SEGUIN TO CUERO LINE. ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP UNDER THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE THURSDAY
COME AROUND...THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MOST
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. WITH PWATS IN THE 2 INCH CATEGORY DURING
THAT TIME...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST. CAN`T RULE OUT VERY
ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THIS
LATE JULY RAIN EVENT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[weatherdude1108]

Hoping we can get most of this action west and north of Austin to help out the hydrologic "pump" feeding Lakes Buchanan and Travis. Heavy rain east of there won't do anyone any good. But significant rain to the east seems to be a common trend over the past several years. We need to spread out our rain prayers and dances out towards the rivers and streams to the west that feed the lakes!

LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS IN HWO. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND FRONT IN THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THE TREND UPWARD IN POPS AND DOWNWARD IN TEMPS MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

[Portastorm]

Kinda disappointing, at least for south central Texas, to see this morning's QPF maps from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. Seven-day totals are less than an inch. EWX in its forecast discussions has been hawkish on this coming week's event(s) with predictions of 1-3 inches of rain with as much as 5 inches in a few spots.

Oh well, I shouldn't complain I suppose about any rain in summer. It's always appreciated and beats the Cockroach Ridge of Death we usually are under this time of year.

[Ptarmigan]

Kinda disappointing, at least for south central Texas, to see this morning's QPF maps from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. Seven-day totals are less than an inch. EWX in its forecast discussions has been hawkish on this coming week's event(s) with predictions of 1-3 inches of rain with as much as 5 inches in a few spots.

Oh well, I shouldn't complain I suppose about any rain in summer. It's always appreciated and beats the Cockroach Ridge of Death we usually are under this time of year.

The QPF forecast do not take small areas into account. It is for large areas. The moisture and troughing has been the RAID for the dreaded and pesky Cockroach Ridge.

[Ntxw]

I"m not sure if rain will be the big story of the week. Be glad for any that occurs though, bigger story is the continued heat relaxation. Remember we are entering summer's peak climo when ridges are now at their strongest effecting us.

Mike Ventrice posted this of the CFSv2 and basically nails the coffin for summer of 2014 JJA. What you see now may be the most/worst summer will throw at us this year The clock is now ticking as the far high latitudes which in a few weeks the sun will be lessening it's grip and no more nonstop sunlight. Cold air will begin to spread from the far north, though we won't feel for another 4-6 weeks it will be on the move!




Fropa is making it's way through Oklahoma, once it arrives it will hang around for most of this week and shortwaves around about the trof

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 43

&&

[JDawg512]

What I find interesting is just how similar this event is as far as forecasting goes with what happened week before last. It's almost looking like a carbon copy. Like the last front, this one is forecasted to dip and stall around Austin then retreat Wednesday back to North Texas before pushing down again late Thursday-Friday time frame.

It does look as if this is a repetitive cycle that we are in. Looking forward to seeing what is in store for mid August.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What I find interesting is just how similar this event is as far as forecasting goes with what happened week before last. It's almost looking like a carbon copy. Like the last front, this one is forecasted to dip and stall around Austin then retreat Wednesday back to North Texas before pushing down again late Thursday-Friday time frame.

It does look as if this is a repetitive cycle that we are in. Looking forward to seeing what is in store for mid August.

Oh please say this isn't going to be repeated again!!!

Just shoot me now if it is...and I know you folks have guns.

[Tireman4]

The HGX AFD this morning:


.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY WILL BOUNCE AROUND 1 MILE TO 1/4 MILE IN MOST AREAS SW
OF HOUSTON DUE TO FOG SO ISSED DENSE FOG ADVSIORY FOR NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 76 96 76 96 / 20 30 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 81 91 80 91 / 10 20 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.