WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Taiwan getting pounded. Eyewall and Eye nearing shoreline.

[euro6208]

Western eyewall hammering Taiwan!

[euro6208]

10W MATMO 140722 1200 22.5N 122.0E WPAC 85 959

Dangerous Category 2 typhoon Matmo making landfall over Taiwan...

[euro6208]

Landfall...

Banding type eye has reached the coast...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS INCREASINGLY TIGHTER WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A BROAD
EYE FEATURE. RADAR ANIMATION FROM TAIWAN ALSO REVEALS A MORE
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPEN UPON MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DESPITE BEING BROAD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE EIR LOOP AND
RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM TAIWAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE DEFINED
ORGANIZATION WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSISTENT AT
77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
ACROSS TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE
QUICK TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-STRENGTHEN. INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
AFTER TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL INTO CHINA, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W,
WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA AS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE ABSORPTION OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE BOUNDARY BEYOND
TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Huge burst of convection over taiwan and more on the way...

[tonypace]

To date, in Taichung, there has been minimal rain and minimal wind.

[euro6208]

Over taiwan...

[ManilaTC]

Classic example of Orographic lift to induce torrential-intense rain!
Its like pushing your hand against a water-logged sponge and the edge of the sink...

[^tamago^]

Wow that mountain range sure is effective in weakening the storm to a dud west of it!

[euro6208]

70 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THINNING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS TY 10W
TRACKED OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN AND THE POSITION FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 70 KNOTS AS THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES REFLECT THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND. TY 10W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. DUE TO THE QUICK TRACK OVER THE
TAIWAN STRAIT, TY 10W WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RE-STRENGTHEN.
AS TY 10W MAKES LANDFALL INTO MAINLAND CHINA, AROUND TAU 06, THE
INCREASING FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 10W. THE
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. HOWEVER,
BEYOND TAU 48, THE REMNANTS OF TY 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-
STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH
SOUTHERN KOREA, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, WITH TRACK
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH THE FORECAST, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Looks like the eye is over water again...



Heavy rains over taiwan...

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 119.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.8N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 29.0N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.6N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 119.4E.
TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM WEST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM WEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND BECOMING SLOPPY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AS TY 10W HAS TRACKED INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN AND THE POSITIONAL
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS
AS THE DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12,
MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FUJIAN PROVINCE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DETERIORATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FRICTION
WITH THE WUYI MOUNTAINS, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE POLEWORD DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STR AND EFFECTS OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, THE REMNANTS OF TY
10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA, EVENTUALLY
BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH TRACK
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH THE FORECAST, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Although inland over China, Matmo continues to produce strong convection with a large blowup over the Taiwan strait that's affecting taiwan and china and another strong burst east of Hong Kong...

[CrazyC83]

Sad news I heard: a plane crashed in Taiwan attempting an emergency landing, killing at least 50, may be related to Matmo.

[euro6208]

Sad news I heard: a plane crashed in Taiwan attempting an emergency landing, killing at least 50, may be related to Matmo.

sickening...

[CrazyC83]

Why a plane would fly near a typhoon is beyond me anyway.

[jaguarjace]

Report from the Australian ABC News:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-23/taiwan-transasia-plane-crash/5619462

[Alyono]

Why a plane would fly near a typhoon is beyond me anyway.

I think they do this quite a bit there. Other planes have crashed in typhoons

[somethingfunny]

This is what the radar looked like at the time of the plane crash. I'm appalled that any commercial airline would take a risk like this in modern times. Especially considering, much better conditions existed so closeby in Taiwan where they could have landed and just waited for a few hours before flying to Penghu again.