![Image](http://i61.tinypic.com/2lnzs6h.gif)
WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 119.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.8N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 29.0N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.6N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 119.4E.
TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM WEST OF TAIPEI,
TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM WEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND BECOMING SLOPPY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AS TY 10W HAS TRACKED INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN AND THE POSITIONAL
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS
AS THE DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12,
MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FUJIAN PROVINCE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DETERIORATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FRICTION
WITH THE WUYI MOUNTAINS, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE POLEWORD DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STR AND EFFECTS OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, THE REMNANTS OF TY
10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CHINA THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA, EVENTUALLY
BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH TRACK
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH THE FORECAST, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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