Texas Summer - 2014

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Significant upper air pattern change underway across the US which will bring a major cool down for much of the Midwest and NE and increased rain chances to SE TX.

Anomalous upper air pattern amplification with strong ridging developing over the US west coast into western Canada and a strong downstream trough over the central and eastern US which mimics more of January than July. The end result is a southward displacement of the now infamous coined term “polar vortex” into SE Canada and a strong push of cold polar air southward into the US. Locally, a westward moving upper level low made landfall over SE TX yesterday evening helping to spark off our daily round of thunderstorms. PWS values remain near 1.8 inches this morning along the coast and expect another day of isolated to scattered late day thunderstorms being driven by heating and meso scale outflow boundaries.

Bigger changes start Tuesday and last through the end of the week as the polar cold front sags into N TX and the upper ridge over OK shifts westward allowing an unstable NW flow aloft to develop. Numerous short waves will ride down the stalling frontal boundary which should line up from the panhandle to WC Louisiana on Wednesday and from near Waco to Lake Charles by Thursday. Expect a very active frontal boundary with several bouts of convection and incoming short waves to produce multiple thunderstorm complexes. Big question is how far south the boundary makes it and when/where outflow boundaries from N TX convection move. Both of these questions are difficult to answer as I suspect the actual frontal boundary will begin to become muddled by the outflow boundaries and end up further south than models are currently forecasting. NW flow aloft also favors MCS development over the high terrain of the front range of the Rockies which then move SE and can possibly arrive into SE TX about 12 hours later. Thursday night into early Friday is starting to key in on the period where the formation of a sustained low level jet could result in long lasting or sustained convection over the region leading to a heavy rainfall threat. Think the severe threat is low at this time with shear on the weak side.

Depending on your model of choice the front may actually in some form move off the coast Friday/Saturday allowing a rare dry air mass to move into the area. Models tend to be a little aggressive this time of year with frontal passages and past experience would strongly argue against such an event….however this is a potent and deep upper trough with 2-3 standard deviations below normal heights so if a front would to clear the coast this is likely a pattern where it might happen.

[dhweather]

I'm not liking what the run total precip has moved to on the 7/14 00Z Euro

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I'm not liking what the run total precip has moved to on the 7/14 00Z Euro


http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/3296/2qxb.png

Buzz kill. Looking at the DFW NWS forecast first thing this morning, they seemed much less bullish about rain coverage and rain totals for the end of the week. I just want some water in Lavon Lake, so maybe these watering restrictions can be scaled back a bit.

[dhweather]

Yeah, they've backed off quite a bit. We've gone from the 3+ category, down to 2-3", down to 1-2 in the last 48 hours.

[Ntxw]

How can one not like 1-2 inches in what is the driest, hottest month of the year? I understand the negativity towards forecasts but considering what it should be then better count those blessings rather than not. It could be hot, humid, and huge evaporation.

[South Texas Storms]

How can one not like 1-2 inches in what is the driest, hottest month of the year? I understand the negativity towards forecasts but considering what it should be then better count those blessings rather than not. It could be hot, humid, and huge evaporation.

Yeah, we should be very thankful for whatever we can get during the summer (or anytime of the year for that matter). Any MCS moving through the state can bring several inches of rain to widespread areas. Hopefully we see several of them throughout this week.

[DonWrk]

Seems like this always occurs. The bulls eye will be right over North Texas and in the coming days getting closer to the event it always and I mean always shifts the heavier totals to the east. It never fails.

[Tireman4]

How can one not like 1-2 inches in what is the driest, hottest month of the year? I understand the negativity towards forecasts but considering what it should be then better count those blessings rather than not. It could be hot, humid, and huge evaporation.

Yep, this could be July 2011...ugghhhhh

[dhweather]

How can one not like 1-2 inches in what is the driest, hottest month of the year? I understand the negativity towards forecasts but considering what it should be then better count those blessings rather than not. It could be hot, humid, and huge evaporation.

Yep, this could be July 2011...ugghhhhh

Saying that should be a banable offense.



I was just telling my wife, three years ago, we were already 2-3 weeks into daily 100's


And yes, sure I'll be happy for the rain, but I'm not going to lie, I want that copious 5-6" in the watersheds that matter. All the lakes need a LOT of rain, or we will be in stage 4 drought come October.

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS says heavy rains for the Red River Valley:

[Ntxw]

2011 should be considered profanity . I can promise nothing like that will happen this year. We were all amidst long streaks of 100 as dhweather said with a putrid winter to boot. Nightmare still haunts...

[Portastorm]

It'll be interesting to see how this week plays out. Many of the NWS forecast discussions believe the GFS is too far north on its idea re: location of the frontal boundary and that ultimately the frontal boundary will end up further south than it's showing. The Euro takes that approach really drops it south into the state and soaks a good bit of Texas, especially later in the week.

[WeatherNewbie]

The gnashing over model flip-flopping reminds me a little of the hurricane threads.

[Tireman4]

2011 should be considered profanity . I can promise nothing like that will happen this year. We were all amidst long streaks of 100 as dhweather said with a putrid winter to boot. Nightmare still haunts...

Summer of 2011. The year that the High Pressure Ridge of Death ate Tropical Storm Don. Amazing. I will never ever forget that. To hear the great and mighty Porta utter these famous words...


Worst. Summer. Ever.



Edit: For the newbies around here, this is the thread. Read it and weep.

viewtopic.php?f=73&t=111230&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=3560

What is funnier ( and I will finish with this tangent), is that someone said they hoped August would be better. Nope. 10 times worse. Back to the Summer of 2014

[srainhoutx]

The interesting thing with this expected pattern is just how strong the 500mb low that is rapidly dropping S over the Western Great Lakes Region is going to be and how deep of a trough it is going to carve out. We certainly do not see this sort of deep 500mb low in mid July which 3+ standard deviations below normal and should allow for multiple short waves to drop SE from Western Canada and round the base of the deep trough. Last week we only expected that strong upper low to be positioned N of the Great Lakes and now it appears it may drop as far S as the Ohio River Valley.

[wxman57]

Nothing remotely close to 2011 across Texas this summer. This week's cold front may produce quite a bit of rain. We're seeing daily rounds of thunderstorms across SE TX. I've already measured 2" of rain in SW Houston this month. Rained for 8 straight days at one point. Not a lot each day, though. The big storms were missing my house. I'm having to mow my grass twice a week. No signs of stress on the plants.

Did I say "cold front"? This is JULY! There will be no cold fronts across Texas until late September!

[WeatherNewbie]

Some decent little storms moving into the Metroplex.

[Tireman4]

Nothing remotely close to 2011 across Texas this summer. This week's cold front may produce quite a bit of rain. We're seeing daily rounds of thunderstorms across SE TX. I've already measured 2" of rain in SW Houston this month. Rained for 8 straight days at one point. Not a lot each day, though. The big storms were missing my house. I'm having to mow my grass twice a week. No signs of stress on the plants.

Did I say "cold front"? This is JULY! There will be no cold fronts across Texas until late September!

Do you think this is a trend? A buckling if you will every month or so until Fall?

[Portastorm]

My local NWS guys/gals appear to be bullish on SC TX's rain chance this week. I'm liking it!

***
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK TUTT LOW/AXIS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER COAST HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN TEXAS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR EAST...BUT AN ISOLATED
STORM COULD REACH THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
TO OUR NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE RED
RIVER/N TX AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND COULD SEE A FEW STORMS ENTER OUR NRN
ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT BRING ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND THE FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SET UP...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MICROBURST/DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO
1.9-2 INCHES...SUGGESTING ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE DRY OUTLIER AND
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST/ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. PW VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.8-2+
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS LOW-LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS (SUCH AS INTERSECTIONS/LOW WATER CROSSINGS)

[aggiecutter]

WPC still bullish for heavy rain in North Texas: