WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

even the Canadian does not develop this through 6 days

Shouldn't that be telling us something?

[dexterlabio]

^if I were to downplay this, it's because of the Euro and not the Canadian. CMC was second behind the GFS to show a typhoon out of this, but then it hit the break a few times now..at least the ECMWF and GFS are consistent..

[dexterlabio]

JMA still has it as TD, and expects a TS tomorrow afternoon. It still has a lot of things to work on to be a TS, imo..

[cycloneye]

JTWC downgrades to TD.

09W NINE 140711 1800 13.3N 145.9E WPAC 30 1000

[phwxenthusiast]

This is nothing more than an open wave right now to me... PGUM hasn't even reported anything above 10kt, pressure at 1008mb... LLCC is almost non-existent and you can barely make out the MLC on Guam Radar...

too much shear right now i think but should be more favorable over the next 2 days... as long as the wave can remain intact until then, i think we still have a chance of a cyclone by next week...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[HURAKAN]

new track implies that the system was never a tropical storm

[euro6208]

Very heavy rains right now

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 112132
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
800 AM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

...09W DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM AND ROTA IS CANCELLED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN IS CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.4N 145.3E

ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 09W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALMOST DUE WEST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO GUAM TODAY BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 MPH. 09W IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

Be back in a bit. Going to work in a while

[euro6208]

Most likely flooding is happening in some low lying areas...

[senorpepr]

Sandy,

I noticed the JTWC changed the best track to reflect that the system was never a tropical storm. Don't recall seeing that before, but never really looked either. I can't imagine it something they do often, though. However, I think it's justified. Never understood the upgrade to a tropical storm and for the heightened alert status on Guam. Not to downplay the flooding rains... they can be dangerous enough, but this just isn't a wind event. We'll see if it develops over the next few days, though

[euro6208]

Updated position has center just offshore Guam

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS run has this remaining the same intensity as it tracks west, before turning NW and rapidly intensifying. So, which means, we have to wait for some time in order to see the intensification-that will occur over a much more favorable and conducive environment for development.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 112238
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
811 AM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

...09W DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM AND ROTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.3 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF GUAM
50 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA
110 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
09W HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER WILL
PASS CLOSE TO GUAM BETWEEM 9 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THE MARIANAS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
AS IT PERTAINS TO THIS EVENT...THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS UPON THE AREA.

GUZ001-002-PMZ151-152-112315-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
811 AM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-112315-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
811 AM CHST SAT JUL 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

JMA remains as TD.


TD
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 12 July 2014
<Analyses at 12/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°40'(13.7°)
E145°10'(145.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°00'(14.0°)
E142°25'(142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E139°40'(139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like the mid-level circulation center is finally becoming more organized based on radar... furthermore, PGUM winds switched to southerly this morning so the low-level center may still be present... just not sure if they're actually aligned or not, i'm leaning more on the latter.

let's see how this current burst of convection will hold into the early afternoon hours and see if it's just part of the diurnal cycle... shear in the region is status quo, it looks like, so it's still marginally favorable.. that MLC needs to slow down just enough and give the system a chance to actually deepen.

we may not see any substantial intensification until maybe tomorrow.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Only a slight improvement. ^^ Models predict the intensification not tomorrow but 2-3 days from now.

Center location shows a slight misplacement from the deepest convection, though. Shear is decreasing but may increase for a short while..

[euro6208]

Guam now back to condition of readiness 4

http://bcdownload.gannett.edgesuite.net/guam-mobile/201407/381/44238100001_3671212598001_trim-79396705-53FA-42AC-A02D-648073952ADD.mp4

NWS senior warning coordinator Chip Guard talks about Tropical Storm 09W earlier

[cycloneye]

JTWC keeps trending down the intensity at 0300z warning. No longer a cat 3 but that could change if conditions turn better.

[euro6208]

Conditions on Guam getting better. Patches of clouds with blue skies no rain

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE, BUT A NEW CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
MASS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM HAS
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS UNDERGONE INCREASED
ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD HOLDING STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED BETWEEN IWO TO AND GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BASED ON THE SHIFT IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL STRUGGLE TO ALIGN FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING TO A SLOW DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH
TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FORECASTED TRACK, BUT THE OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, CAUSING A SHIFT IN THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PART OF LUZON. ADDITIONALLY,
THE VERY FAVORABLE SST VALUES PRIOR TO THE APPROACH WILL LEAD TO
A MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 108, POSSIBLY NEAR 100 KNOTS BUT IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AS THE TAU 120 INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
ENCOMPASSES A SLIGHT IMPACT TO THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE INFLOW
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS IMPACTED BY CROSSING OVER LUZON.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND TRACK SPEED UNCERTAINTY, THE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN