Texas Summer - 2014

[weatherdude1108]

I'm already having a case of the Summer doldrums.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 071933
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 500 MB
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE ALSO TRYING TO BUILD A BIT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT LOWER LEVELS...FLOW FROM THE S AND SE WILL KEEP THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN PLACE AND KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN...MAINLY THE MIDDLE 90S. AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DUE
TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE RECENT RAIN ACTIVITY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MILD AND DONT SEE ANY CHANGE IN THESE TEMPERATURES.
ONLY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SE COUNTIES WHERE SEABREEZE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST. COULD SEE A RETURN OF SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY
COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DONT SHOW A WELL ESTABLISH UPPER RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA...AND UNTIL THAT OCCURS...THE MID TO UPPER 90S FORECAST
WITH ISOLATED POPS WILL BE THE FORECAST OF CHOICE. THE GFS IS
SHOWING A SLUG OF MOISTURE COMING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SH/TS ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
ALONG WITH THIS...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND GIVING US SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 TEMPS.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT POP MENTIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND DONT PLAN ON CHANGING THIS PATTERN.

[WeatherNewbie]

Decent little popup shower over the Metroplex this afternoon.

[Ntxw]

I dont think the Typhoon is expected to recurve. Does this rule still take effect? Its taking a much more northerly track vs a NE track.

Typhoon Neoguri is already recurving. Heading north toward southern Japan.

So is that the definition of recurveing? I thought it was 'recurving' when it exits the Japanese coast. Good to know! lol

It's not so much all the typhoon, the jist is the trough picking it up is being enhanced (feedback) by the system forcing stronger ridging to it's east. NA likely buckles a deeper trough especially east of the Rockies as a result. Euro is already hinting this with a fairly stout midwest/lakes low and trying to send a cold front (in July) towards Texas. Still a way to go but signs are there mid month.

[JDawg512]

It's not so much all the typhoon, the jist is the trough picking it up is being enhanced (feedback) by the system forcing stronger ridging to it's east. NA likely buckles a deeper trough especially east of the Rockies as a result. Euro is already hinting this with a fairly stout midwest/lakes low and trying to send a cold front (in July) towards Texas. Still a way to go but signs are there mid month.

I sure hope so, what seemed like an unstable pattern for early July is turning out to be the opposite. Of course local news weather forecasts show no signs of rain for the next week. One channel I saw had 99 by the end of the week! Unless it is a heat ridge, I find it hard to believe it will get that hot as there is still good moisture in the ground and lots of greenery.

[Ntxw]

I sure hope so, what seemed like an unstable pattern for early July is turning out to be the opposite. Of course local news weather forecasts show no signs of rain for the next week. One channel I saw had 99 by the end of the week! Unless it is a heat ridge, I find it hard to believe it will get that hot as there is still good moisture in the ground and lots of greenery.

I'm afraid the heat wave this week is real centered to our west and will slowly migrate east just to the north. The northern half of the state will be closer to it and also received less rain than the southern 2/3rds. I think you're right the greenery is probably preventing it from becoming a multi week 100-105+ affair. There is likely a cold front coming towards the end of the heat wave sometime next week, timing needs to be fine tuned.

Climo climbs to 95-99 this period for many of us so heat would be considered slightly above average. Austin, San Antonio, Houston will be closer to normal. DFW may push over 100.

[Tireman4]

I sure hope so, what seemed like an unstable pattern for early July is turning out to be the opposite. Of course local news weather forecasts show no signs of rain for the next week. One channel I saw had 99 by the end of the week! Unless it is a heat ridge, I find it hard to believe it will get that hot as there is still good moisture in the ground and lots of greenery.

I'm afraid the heat wave this week is real centered to our west and will slowly migrate east just to the north. The northern half of the state will be closer to it and also received less rain than the southern 2/3rds. I think you're right the greenery is probably preventing it from becoming a multi week 100-105+ affair. There is likely a cold front coming towards the end of the heat wave sometime next week, timing needs to be fine tuned.

Climo climbs to 95-99 this period for many of us so heat would be considered slightly above average. Austin, San Antonio, Houston will be closer to normal. DFW may push over 100.

Huh? Tell me more....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Check out Bastardis latest tweet. "Summer version of the Polar Vortex" to the Great Lakes.

[Portastorm]

Caught this interesting little blurb from this morning's AFD out of NWSFO EWX:

BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE EASTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK WEST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO TEXAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FRONT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH
A DRY FORECAST.

[weatherdude1108]

Caught this interesting little blurb from this morning's AFD out of NWSFO EWX:

BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE EASTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK WEST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO TEXAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FRONT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH
A DRY FORECAST.

I saw that too. Let's hope something comes of it! I know it is approaching mid-July and all, but, we all know -- anything can happen.

[ravyrn]

Perhaps we should enlist SaskatchewanScreamer and her trusty fans to make sure that front makes it down here?

[Tireman4]

I know we had a cold front come to Texas in August 2004 (13-15). I know because that was my wedding day back then. It does happen. Now, on the flip side, we had the hottest October ever...LOL.

[texas1836]

Wow, Fall in July.

[somethingfunny]

The sucky thing about summer cold fronts is that in cases when they stall out just north of us, the heat and humidity collect right up against the boundary and just make things more miserable when the front fails to clear the area. Our long hot summer has begun and I'll be pessimistic until October.

[wxman57]

Summer is turning out pretty much as I'd expected - cooler than normal across SE TX and wetter. Houston's running about 1.3F below normal temperature-wise so far in July (June was normal). Rainfall is catching up to normal after a dry spring. I have measured just over 20" (25" is normal). That 10.4" in May helped a lot. Even though temps are below normal, I find July tolerable as low 90s is still warm enough to bike.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like more cold is on the way:

[Ntxw]

Euro is looking quite bullish. For July that is a pretty good front, and less hot air mass. If you recall last mid July we had a once in a lifetime cool shot mid July. Probably not that kind of intensity, but it's looking pretty darn good. Even the less hopeful GFS has been going cooler, example 18z has some areas in the 70s and low 80s with rain like the Canadian. Of course you're still talking a week away. Regardless, we picked this potential pattern out some days ago and the models have gradually begun to fine tune.

FW AFD this afternoon


BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THEIR LATEST RUNS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FORCED BACK
WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AREAS. THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BUT ALL THREE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST
WITH THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL...BRINGING IT IN ON MONDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THE GFS HAS IT ON THURSDAY.
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE REACH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.

[wxman57]

Looks like more cold is on the way:

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/Untitled_zps1dd3f34b.png

BRRR! Arctic cold in July!

[Ntxw]

Dr Ventrice tweeted this.

"Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
20-25F below average temperatures across the Plains next week under a big time cold front. Top 5% cool spell in store pic.twitter.com/rpTTzCX8Rc"




That typhoon recurve theory meant business

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentioned the cold front, rain, and cooler temps in today's blog.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

Some remarkable agreement by the models. FW is starting to buy into the idea. Good flow for persistent rains, MCS from NW to SSE one after another in that kind of pattern. Summer doesn't offer these type of drastic pattern amplifications much, except for monster heat ridges this one is going the other direction. Probably a 2-4 SD below normal in our region and even greater just up north. Pretty rare event if panned.

The words strong cold front and July are not supposed to be