EPAC: INVEST 98E

[cycloneye]

Wait what? How'd we get Fausto?

It was quick as Invest 99E was up early Monday afternoon and a few hours later they went strait to Tropical Storm Fausto.

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system, located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur during the next 48 hours as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After 48 hours, upper level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure,
located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
become less organized during the past 24 hours. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next 48 hours
as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After 48 hours,
upper level winds are expected to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fausto, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Development, if any, of this system should be
slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, strong upper-level
winds are expected to preclude any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090505
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fausto, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are
associated with a trough of low pressure. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time,
strong upper-level winds are expected to preclude any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Tropical Depression Fausto, located more than a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula has become better organized today. Some
additional slow development is possible during the next day or so
before upper-level winds become less conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

98E INVEST 140709 1800 16.4N 114.8W EPAC 25 1008

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe this might have a chance but I doubt it considering that conditions go hostile very soon.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is centered about 600 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although
the associated shower activity has not become any better organized
during the past few hours, the system still has some potential for
development during the next 24 hours before the environment
becomes unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[hurricanes1234]

Very likely, in my opinion, that this will bust.

[Yellow Evan]

I actually looks very very good now. You probs are right, but it's not far off.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula have become
more concentrated and the wind circulation has become a little
better defined. However, the system is encountering colder water and
stronger upper-level winds, and additional development appears
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

I would at least increase the development chances. Certainly much better today.

[hurricanes1234]

It's heading over hostile conditions. No development from this beyond a weak depression in my opinion, if it even develops. I hope it doesn't get named because it will probably waste a name (because once it forms it will have to deal with cold water and the other unfavorable conditions) which I think might hinder further development.

[Yellow Evan]

It's heading over hostile conditions. No development from this beyond a weak depression in my opinion, if it even develops. I hope it doesn't get named because it will probably waste a name (because once it forms it will have to deal with cold water and the other unfavorable conditions) which I think might hinder further development.

So? If it is TS worthy, it should be upgraded, regardless how long it lasts.

And I hate TD's that don't become TS's.

[Kingarabian]

If the center can just tuck itself right under that big ball of convection North East of it...

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

TAFB and SAB have a depression:

10/1800 UTC 17.5N 118.0W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific

[Hurricane_Luis]

TAFB and SAB have a depression:

10/1800 UTC 17.5N 118.0W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific

We could briefly see TD 7E then.

[cycloneye]

Is too late.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula are disorganized. Unfavorable upper-level
winds have become established over the system and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila