WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The current JTWC and ECMWF is very insane! It usually becomes stronger than forecast, so could this be stronger than Haiyan? Haiyan was intensifying a little bit slower than Neoguri though, and it is a lot stronger than its 2008 counterpart. Accuweather accidentally called Neoguri "Norbert" for the forecasts.

[stormcruisin]

When the eye drys out again it will look a picture.

[cycloneye]

Any word about chasers going to Okinawa? They may get a cat 5 there.

[phwxenthusiast]

I'm not sure so about that 115kt analysis by the JTWC.. seems to be too high imho. The system, while intensifying, isn't really showing any impressive improvements in the past 6 hours... as KNES said, it does look like it's actually weakened slightly... even the microwave image suggests some tilting...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormcruisin]

Looks to me its starting to intensify again now.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track remains at 115kts.

08W NEOGURI 140705 1200 16.7N 135.8E WPAC 115 937

[stormcruisin]

looks like the moat is almost a full circle now to me this looks to be boarder line c5 now. just saying.

[hurricanes1234]

Perhaps it's undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which is why it stopped strengthening for now?

[euro6208]

The current JTWC and ECMWF is very insane! It usually becomes stronger than forecast, so could this be stronger than Haiyan? Haiyan was intensifying a little bit slower than Neoguri though, and it is a lot stronger than its 2008 counterpart. Accuweather accidentally called Neoguri "Norbert" for the forecasts.

Well haiyan remained below 10N for most of it's life therefore was able to take advantage of the very favorable ocean up until landfall. Neoguri is tracking to the northwest while the ocean may be super favorable will become less favorable as sst's drop off slightly as it nears okinawa...

[euro6208]

I'm not sure so about that 115kt analysis by the JTWC.. seems to be too high imho. The system, while intensifying, isn't really showing any impressive improvements in the past 6 hours... as KNES said, it does look like it's actually weakened slightly... even the microwave image suggests some tilting...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Reason for the analysis is the 6.0 from KNES and PGTW but i kinda agree with you. The eye is not that circular and is being obscured by deep convection but it is becoming more compact. although it has that look of a monster typhoon, the eye isn't there yet.

Maybe a harbinger of a massive intensification about to take place as suggested by the models?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess there might be an EWRC right now, as I see that the structure of typhoon Neoguri is changing for the past few hours. So, maybe a short halt of any big intensification for now. After the EWRC is completed, then BOOM!

[stormcruisin]

Perhaps it's undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which is why it stopped strengthening for now?

Been quite a few pressure fluctuations you are prolly on the mark if you look at the JTWC track on cimiss this stable session is anticipated. Then system goes balistic.

[euro6208]

Models like okinawa and forecast has +50 foot waves hitting the island nation...

[dexterlabio]

It didn't have a solid core earlier, thus having that ragged eye appearance...but right now, it looks like deep convection within the core has become organized and has wrapped around the eye nicely. Just wait for the eye to clear out and see DT numbers skyrocketing..

[euro6208]

It seems like it engulfed some dry air from the northwest with a band forming earlier dissipating and the eye at that part remains open. Still a bit of dry air but Neoguri will likely eat it up and start strengthening yet again.

[cycloneye]

15:00z update track slightly west of Okinawa making them get the right side worse part.

[euro6208]

Here is the latest prognostic. Weird no mention of dry air...

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AS IT BECAME HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 22-
NM EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES SHOWING ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIGHT (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE POLEWARD. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT
150 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AS THE STR BEGINS TO
SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INCREASED
MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND THE START OF
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. HOWEVER, TY 08W
WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LAND-FALL INTO SOUTHERN
JAPAN. AFTER TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIASED TOWARDS
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

JMA's forecast track looks like a direct hit. Current intensity is 85 knots (10 min) and forecast to strengthen to 95 knots (10 min)...

[jaguarjace]

NOAA's SSD/SAB have modified their Water Vapor enhancement.

[weathernerdguy]

The most shocking thing about this storm is that it is forecast to be at 145 knots, WHILE it is July, not even that, it is the beginning of July!