ronjon wrote:Norfolk Virginia might experience hurricane force wind gusts if 18z HWRF verifies.
Finally maybe some action my way lol
ATL: ARTHUR - Models
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Syx6sic
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Finally maybe some action my way lol
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
ronjon wrote:Norfolk Virginia might experience hurricane force wind gusts if 18z HWRF verifies.
It really depends on how reliable HWRF is in terms of track. That being said, HWRF has consistently been on this same track (more west than most other models) and now the higher ups are starting to bend westward in the track (GFS,EURO).
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Duddy wrote:http://t.co/wAGftA4kVU
What is HRRR? It's 0z run shows a track much more west of NHC track.
I don't see how this is possible when Arthur now looks more ragged and slightly pathetic compared to several hours ago. If this was to happen it would have to get its act together FAST!!
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brunota2003
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Wow...if the HWRF verified, the hurricane would literally go right over my old house.
For those that don't know, the HRRR is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. It runs every hour...I believe it was supposed to be the replacement for the RUC, if I remember right?
For those that don't know, the HRRR is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. It runs every hour...I believe it was supposed to be the replacement for the RUC, if I remember right?
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Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
The HWRF hasn't verified since, when, 2005?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
tolakram wrote:The HWRF hasn't verified since, when, 2005?
In regards to track, intensity or both?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Duddy wrote:tolakram wrote:The HWRF hasn't verified since, when, 2005?
In regards to track, intensity or both?
Both. It's had a horrendous track record with both intensity and track.
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
tolakram wrote:Duddy wrote:tolakram wrote:The HWRF hasn't verified since, when, 2005?
In regards to track, intensity or both?
Both. It's had a horrendous track record with both intensity and track.
Yeah I've noticed the HWRF always over exaggerates storms the past few seasons. Have they ever predicted a storm correctly?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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ncweatherwizard
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Duddy wrote:http://t.co/wAGftA4kVU
What is HRRR? It's 0z run shows a track much more west of NHC track.
LOL at the HRRR reflectivity field. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it's pretty unlikely.
HRRR initializes a 3D reflectivity field that is itself derived from radar data that goes through assimilation into the 13km Rapid Refresh. So a lot of things happen to the actual radar data before the model even gets started. The 0-hour representation of the storm is much more impressive than its actual presentation tonight.
HRRR is WRF at 3km resolution run on a large domain for just 12 hours. My experience is that WRF, when initialized with a deep pressure minimum, wraps convection around that minimum pretty quickly. Having a dense network of observations to assimilate at initialization would probably help yield a more realistic TC structure, IMO.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
0Z Euro running.
30 hours - 976mb very close to Hatteras. Looks like it might be just miles east of Buxton at the closest point.
36 hours - 971mb
30 hours - 976mb very close to Hatteras. Looks like it might be just miles east of Buxton at the closest point.
36 hours - 971mb
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
00z GFDL deepens Arthur into a 125mph full blown major hurricane east of Cape Hatteras
Likely overdone as it always does...
Likely overdone as it always does...
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
supercane4867 wrote:00z GFDL deepens Arthur into a 125mph full blown major hurricane east of Cape Hatteras
Likely overdone as it always does...
That would be crazy! Let's hope HWRF is overdoing its prediction there. CAT 3+ is no bueno
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
It's time to call it the day when the GFDL agrees with the big boys...
06z GFDL +24
06z GFDL +24
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
As stormcruisin pointed out above, the 12Z GFS takes Arthur a lot closer to the coast. Close enough to really ruin the celebrations on the 4th with rain and gusty winds. It also looks to take Arthur a bit closer to southeastern New England. Especially as Arthur will be a transitioning system at the time, with much of it's heavy precipitation on its western side, southeastern New England could be in for a great deal of heavy reain.
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Jevo
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12z GFS +12
12z GFS +18
12z GFS +18
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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