ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#1641 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Alyono wrote:pressure probably 989mb now... but winds still do not justify an upgrade


Agree,no stronger winds found than the ones in previous passes.


although not entirely important.... they actually literally veered completely around that stronger band to the east and NE...
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Re: Re:

#1642 Postby WxEnthus » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Alyono wrote:pressure probably 989mb now... but winds still do not justify an upgrade


Agree,no stronger winds found than the ones in previous passes.


Winds follow pressure (right?) so they should be on the increase soon if pressure has indeed dropped quite a bit, re NOAA center pass. But no more recon until later. :(
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#1643 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:38 pm

looks to be about to pass just west of the next NHC forecast point... supposed to turn about now.. any farther north it moves without turning. brings more of NC in the stronger winds
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1644 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:46 pm

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#1645 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:52 pm

At least that front is making good time coming east, its almost into Georgia. If Arthur does track over the Cape there should be some southerly shear by then, that will reduce the peak winds on shore.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1646 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:52 pm

NW eyewall looks to have opened up on radar....might be a hurricane by 11pm, we shall see. 70mph TS or 75mph Hurricane little difference.......MGC
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#1647 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:54 pm

that approaching front is what is going to cause the significant intensification
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Re: Re:

#1648 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:NOAA plane is for research or Doppler radar. The AF is a standard alpha pattern as it is an operational flight


yeah most know that.. but any research scientific analysis would logically be done with a little conciseness....


Just to clarify, some features appear on radar that certain scientists would like to target... For example, perhaps an area looks like it would be useful to sample for a study on downdrafts then the plane will make a slight and "spontaneous" detour to further examine that area. While some research topics can be studied with a direct flight pattern, sometimes things quickly pop up. Also of note, the NOAA planes often fly in "figure 4" patterns, while the AF planes do not, although I'm sure you probably knew that (just letting others know). :D

On another note, outflow to the north still appears somewhat constricted... This is probably hindering any "rapid" intensification.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1649 Postby hurricanekid416 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:55 pm

MGC wrote:NW eyewall looks to have opened up on radar....might be a hurricane by 11pm, we shall see. 70mph TS or 75mph Hurricane little difference.......MGC

It may be moving out of the radars reach
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#1650 Postby summersquall » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:56 pm

Mark Sudduth and Jesse Bass from HurricaneTrack will be around the Outer Banks during Arthur. They'll have a live Ustream. Stay safe all.

http://hurricanetrack.com/
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Re:

#1651 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:58 pm

Alyono wrote:that approaching front is what is going to cause the significant intensification


Will the flow out ahead of it be aiding in the outflow?
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#1652 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:58 pm

Haven't used the SPC Mesoanalysis tool in a while, but the I thought the fluid trapping (basically showing air parcels trapped within vorticies) product was pretty neat.

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#1653 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:01 pm

VORTEX message from the NOAA3 "Miss Piggy" flight over the center of Arthur reads 988 mbar.
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)

Also...

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SEC MAX FL WIND 56 KT; BRNG:051 deg RNG:63 nm
SPIRAL BANDING SOUTH AND EAST
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1654 Postby ravyrn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Frank2 wrote:No, just that recon hasn't found winds that call for an upgrade...

Is recon still out there?


Air Force plane left but NOAA3 will make a last pass shortly.


Speaking of, why did NOAA9 make a turn out into the Gulf? I quit posting the HDOBs from that in recon since it wasn't near Arthur anymore. I'm not as savvy as some so no really sure why it went out into the Eastern GOM.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1655 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:01 pm

Image

Looking good on rainbow..

Tropical Storm Arthur has intensified nicely today and I'm expecting a Hurricane Upgrade tonight if recon finds the data to support it. IMO, Arthur has the potential to be a serious troublemaker for NC/SC.


Analysis of Arthur and other Basins: http://goo.gl/J29iQK

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1656 Postby hurricanekid416 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:01 pm

MGC wrote:NW eyewall looks to have opened up on radar....might be a hurricane by 11pm, we shall see. 70mph TS or 75mph Hurricane little difference.......MGC

It may be moving out of the radars reach
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#1657 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:04 pm

Just for some perspective, Hurricane Issaac 2012 had a minimum pressure of 976mb and still was classified as a tropical storm at that point.
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Re:

#1658 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:07 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Just for some perspective, Hurricane Issaac 2012 had a minimum pressure of 976mb and still was classified as a tropical storm at that point.


Some recent storms with similar pressures to Arthur but peaked as tropical storms -

Tropical Storm Fay (2009): 70 mph, 986 mbar
Tropical Storm Helene (2000): 70 mph, 986 mbar
Tropical Storm Grace (2009): 65 mph, 986 mbar
Subtropical Storm Nicole (2004): 50 mph, 986 mbar
Tropical Storm Gabrielle (1995): 70 mph, 988 mbar
Tropical Storm Arlene (2005): 70 mph, 989 mbar
Tropical Storm Barry (2001): 70 mph, 990 mbar
Tropical Storm Nicholas (2003): 70 mph, 990 mbar
Tropical Storm Peter (2003): 70 mph, 990 mbar
Tropical Storm Frances (1998): 65 mph, 990 mbar
Tropical Storm Arthur (1996): 50 mph, 990 mbar
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1659 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:07 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Just for some perspective, Hurricane Issaac 2012 had a minimum pressure of 976mb and still was classified as a tropical storm at that point.

Isaac was bigger in size and it's effects were felt hundreds of miles away, systems that are large in size [Isaac, Sandy, Alex(2010)] typically have abnormally low pressures for their associated wind speeds.
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Re: Re:

#1660 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:07 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:NOAA plane is for research or Doppler radar. The AF is a standard alpha pattern as it is an operational flight


yeah most know that.. but any research scientific analysis would logically be done with a little conciseness....


Just to clarify, some features appear on radar that certain scientists would like to target... For example, perhaps an area looks like it would be useful to sample for a study on downdrafts then the plane will make a slight and "spontaneous" detour to further examine that area. While some research topics can be studied with a direct flight pattern, sometimes things quickly pop up. Also of note, the NOAA planes often fly in "figure 4" patterns, while the AF planes do not, although I'm sure you probably knew that (just letting others know). :D

On another note, outflow to the north still appears somewhat constricted... This is probably hindering any "rapid" intensification.



well now that makes perfect sense.. thank you for that.. :)

yeah outflow does appear inhibited.. mid level dry air also causing issues.
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