ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

all depends if those SFMRs are valid

[NDG]

Flight level winds up to 75 knots now through that heavy convection.

213630 2942N 07855W 8432 01473 0000 +160 +160 228068 070 058 015 03
213700 2943N 07857W 8439 01453 9994 +157 +157 223072 073 065 043 00
213730 2944N 07858W 8409 01477 9976 +164 +164 235066 075 067 041 00
213800 2945N 07859W 8436 01442 9970 +170 +170 243050 057 066 029 00

[Aric Dunn]

Flight level winds up to 75 knots now through that heavy convection.

213630 2942N 07855W 8432 01473 0000 +160 +160 228068 070 058 015 03
213700 2943N 07857W 8439 01453 9994 +157 +157 223072 073 065 043 00
213730 2944N 07858W 8409 01477 9976 +164 +164 235066 075 067 041 00
213800 2945N 07859W 8436 01442 9970 +170 +170 243050 057 066 029 00

and that is not the strong side.. the eas and ne quad are likely 5 to 10 kt more..

[Alyono]

that's the SEQ, that is the strong side

[Jevo]

18z GFS Running and the center is just W of the OBX in the Sound at 36 hours

[hurricanefloyd5]

@TTerryWFTV: @NHC_Atlantic recon. flights about to make another pass through #TSArthur 's core. new pressure and wind readings #WFTVat530 #StormAlert9

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just found an uncontaminated 67kt wind

Time: 21:37:30Z
Coordinates: 29.7333N 78.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.9 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,477 meters (~ 4,846 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.6 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 235° at 66 knots (From the SW at ~ 75.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 41 mm/hr (~ 1.61 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[cycloneye]

The last pink is the 75kts one.Next pass will be over center.

[Aric Dunn]

that's the SEQ, that is the strong side

no check the data.. also north moving system east quad is right front.. .. east and NE quad have been predominately stronger for the last 24 hour..

[hurricanes1234]

Flight level winds up to 75 knots now through that heavy convection.

213630 2942N 07855W 8432 01473 0000 +160 +160 228068 070 058 015 03
213700 2943N 07857W 8439 01453 9994 +157 +157 223072 073 065 043 00
213730 2944N 07858W 8409 01477 9976 +164 +164 235066 075 067 041 00
213800 2945N 07859W 8436 01442 9970 +170 +170 243050 057 066 029 00

I think this could be a hurricane very soon and would personally estimate 70 knots by 11:00 PM update. However, that's just my opinion (see below).

[Time_Zone]

Those readings likely support 65 KTS, no?

[Aric Dunn]

Flight level winds up to 75 knots now through that heavy convection.

213630 2942N 07855W 8432 01473 0000 +160 +160 228068 070 058 015 03
213700 2943N 07857W 8439 01453 9994 +157 +157 223072 073 065 043 00
213730 2944N 07858W 8409 01477 9976 +164 +164 235066 075 067 041 00
213800 2945N 07859W 8436 01442 9970 +170 +170 243050 057 066 029 00

I think this could be a hurricane very soon and would personally estimate 70 knots by 11:00 PM update. However, that's just my opinion (see below).

they are going to likely to a blend of SFMR and flight level.. bring it to 75 mph.

[flair]

It's interesting that some of the local stations' in-house model projections (WECT for example) have Arthur following the more inland path that the HWRF has been advertising.

Just took a gander at Hurricane Spaghetti and everyone BUT the NHC has Arthuer coming across OBX. Why is the NHC the only one sticking to thier guns?

I'm watching a few NC local streams and WECT and WITN have been showing that their models have the storm coming much more inland.

WTKR (Norfolk) showed their in house model and they show Arthur tracking west of the OBX over the sounds.

[brunota2003]

Just found an uncontaminated 67kt wind

Time: 21:37:30Z
Coordinates: 29.7333N 78.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.9 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,477 meters (~ 4,846 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.6 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 235° at 66 knots (From the SW at ~ 75.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 41 mm/hr (~ 1.61 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Always look at the rain rate...any rain rate over 10 mm will inflate the wind speed of the SFMR. Likely closer to 50 or 55 knots there.

[Extratropical94]

Extrapolated pressure from recon aircraft: 990.8 mb

[NDG]

For being in the "dry" side of the storm, one thing that I noticed when I went to Daytona Beach earlier this afternoon is that it was very warm and humid under cloudy skies and passing showers, , temps were in the mid 80s.
Arthur has plenty of fuel at the surface to get going, if it wasn't for that mid level dry air last night it would had been a hurricane already.

[Aric Dunn]

next the noaa plane heading north to south..

[Hurricaneman]

If the models keep coming west then I wouldn't be surprised to see TS watches for SE New England in later advisories

This is still organizing and could be making a run at being a cat 2 for the Carolina coast as this is stronger than anticipated earlier in the day

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

That thing has a Dvorak that would perk my attention if I were in front of it. Compact little buzzer of a homebrew storm that beat unfavorable conditions.

[hurricanefloyd5]

@TTerryWFTV: New @NHCRecon surface wind report: 77mph just east of the center of #TSArthur. On the edge of becoming a hurricane later tonight!