ATL: ARTHUR - Models
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
So all major models now showing a direct OBX hit. That's significant.
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Re:
SeGaBob wrote:Why would the models shift west when there's no westerly component of movement anymore? Could it just be a later turn to the NE?
Yep. It's all a question of when the NE curve happens and how much of a bend there is.
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M a r k
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Re:
SeGaBob wrote:Why would the models shift west when there's no westerly component of movement anymore? Could it just be a later turn to the NE?
We have a lot of visitors looking at storm2k for non public distributed guidance.
The earlier models were playing catch up with a low level center initializing further south and east than anticipated.
They have since had special missions sample the upper air to create a more accurate forecast.
The models could be seeing a delay in the fronts eastward progression.
Or maybe the high pressure ridging is evolving differently than expected.
Kind of important to North Carolina to get a clear forecast without a lot of speculation.
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18z GFS Initialized
18z GFS +24 (wait.... what?)
18z GFS +24 (wait.... what?)
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18z GFS +36 (West of 12z)
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Per Levi Cowan on twitter referencing CMC ensembles.
12z CMC ensembles are in. A lot of members take Arthur solidly over the outer banks. Very few offshore.
Last edited by JtSmarts on Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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one thing i have noticed about the west shift in models. im looking at the radar echos from the approaching front and they are beginning to align more south to north that west to east. could mean art will move a little more west.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Is it just me or does the GFS have Arthur much weaker than the other models?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
beagleagle23 wrote:Is it just me or does the GFS have Arthur much weaker than the other models?
That's a resolution issue with that particular plot. At 30 hours the 18Z GFS high rez (paysite, Weatherbell) has Arthur at 989mb before hitting the North Carolina coast, then 984mb just after it comes off the coast.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
18z HWRF Initialized
18z HWRF +24
18z HWRF +24
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
18z HWRF +36
18z HWRF +39
18z HWRF +42
18z HWRF +39
18z HWRF +42
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Norfolk Virginia might experience hurricane force wind gusts if 18z HWRF verifies.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Models
ronjon wrote:Norfolk Virginia might experience hurricane force wind gusts if 18z HWRF verifies.
Heck, even SE New England could too verbatim
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