ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re:

#1341 Postby got ants? » Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:55 pm

Frank2 wrote:Just my opinion, but based on the above radar graphic Arthur is moving at 030 - again, just my opinion, but the trough is getting close to the US EC and no doubt it's going to start interacting with it at any time, if not already...

Frank


Or, possibly an elliptical wobble of the eye wall... :double:
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#1342 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:57 pm

Maybe, but the NHC has said it would eventually turn to the NE, and so far their forecast track has been correct, and since it appears to be strengthening that would favor it turning, as well...
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1343 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:01 pm

From the FTP site: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

17:37Z
Image
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#1344 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:04 pm

Almost looks like Humberto.
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Re: Re:

#1345 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:05 pm

got ants? wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.


I don't. The last NHC advisory (11:00am) said 24-36 hrs before hurricane status. If they up that at all, it would still not be today...


lol Well if Recon Data, Radar Data, ect. support Hurricane Intensity they won't wait until tomorrow to upgrade just because that's when their forecast says it will become a Hurricane... lol
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Re: Re:

#1346 Postby adam0983 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:07 pm

Looks like more of a fish spinner and the Stronger Arthur will get the more North east it will go. Lets hope this storm affects no one. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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Re: Re:

#1347 Postby vacanechaser » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:09 pm

MaineWeatherNut wrote:
got ants? wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.


I don't. The last NHC advisory (11:00am) said 24-36 hrs before hurricane status. If they up that at all, it would still not be today...


lol Well if Recon Data, Radar Data, ect. support Hurricane Intensity they won't wait until tomorrow to upgrade just because that's when their forecast says it will become a Hurricane... lol



Agreed. Lol. They would not hold off to protect their forecast. Lol. A hurricane is a hurricane and public safety comes first.



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Re: Re:

#1348 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:10 pm

adam0983 wrote:Looks like more of a fish spinner and the Stronger Arthur will get the more North east it will go. Lets hope this storm affects no one. Just an opinion not a forecast.


Too late for that. This is not a fish storm. Numerous rescues have already occurred off the FL east coast and voluntary evacuation orders are in place in North Carolina. It is already impacting the states.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1349 Postby Jevo » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:11 pm

12z Euro has come back West at 48 hours, now showing a potential OBX impact at 970mb

http://i.imgur.com/24kPfDc.gif
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1350 Postby ronyan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:13 pm

Jevo wrote:12z Euro has come back West at 48 hours, now showing a potential OBX impact at 970mb

http://i.imgur.com/24kPfDc.gif


NHC will probably be shifting the track a little west at 5pm based on that.
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#1351 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:14 pm

no signs of any significant pressure falls yet. But it looks a lot more organized
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#1352 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:14 pm

Plane has arrived in Arthur; one 50kt flight level barb in NW quadrant, which is the weakest side in this case I believe.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1353 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:16 pm

12Z Euro has a 966mb hurricane passing a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras (Hatteras is in the eye) at 12Z Friday. Time to get those people on the OB evacuated.
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Re: Re:

#1354 Postby got ants? » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:18 pm

MaineWeatherNut wrote:
got ants? wrote:
adam0983 wrote:Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.


I don't. The last NHC advisory (11:00am) said 24-36 hrs before hurricane status. If they up that at all, it would still not be today...


lol Well if Recon Data, Radar Data, ect. support Hurricane Intensity they won't wait until tomorrow to upgrade just because that's when their forecast says it will become a Hurricane... lol


I cannot recall a hurricane being called one in advance of actually being one. They may move thier time table up on the predictions, but I doubt they will call it a hurricane before it is actually one.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1355 Postby ronyan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro has a 966mb hurricane passing a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras (Hatteras is in the eye) at 12Z Friday. Time to get those people on the OB evacuated.


Yes, they need to be acting on this info now.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1356 Postby Raebie » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro has a 966mb hurricane passing a couple miles east of Cape Hatteras (Hatteras is in the eye) at 12Z Friday. Time to get those people on the OB evacuated.


Is there enough time?
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#1357 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:21 pm

I think adam0983 meant "fish spinner" as far as it's chance of not making direct landfall, though as said it's already indirectly impacting the EC - it did down here last evening, that's for sure...

Frank
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1358 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:22 pm

Lowest pressure found on first pass was 995.6 mbs.
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#1359 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:23 pm

996mb, 71mph fl
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1360 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:25 pm

Since it now seems to have closed off an "eye" on visible sat. I would expect a quicker pace of deepening. I think the pressure is going to be lower with each pass recon makes today.
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