ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanekid416]

Looks like a classic east coast hurricane

[WxEnthus]

12z GFS Shows a moderately deep system over the OBX in 42-46 hours

http://i.imgur.com/S8DEHPZ.png

Looks like the GFS has the storm brushing the NC coast pretty hard for about 16+ hours. NHC track is heavy on Euro and UKMET guidance, which don't take it that far west. Wonder what this recon will find and if track will shift away from the east...

[Time_Zone]

Wish this thing would stay away from Nova Scotia...or at least be a decent storm by time it gets here.

Weather here is beautiful and the last thing I want is some weak, sad little storm coming here to ruin the day with a little bit of wind and rain.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

Looking good

[weathernerdguy]

i can tell there is dry air on the northern side because of the gust fronts that are appearing

[ravyrn]

Is there not a rule against posting blatantly false information, disclaimer or not? There should be, if there isn't one.

I think you're making too big of a deal over his post. If you feel it is inappropriate, instead of calling him out on the forums, simply click the red exclamation mark button and report the post and let the mods do their job.

[wxman57]

Is there not a rule against posting blatantly false information, disclaimer or not? There should be, if there isn't one.

I think you're making too big of a deal over his post. If you feel it is inappropriate, instead of calling him out on the forums, simply click the red exclamation mark button and report the post and let the mods do their job.

Agree, let's end that discussion and talk about Arthur.

[robbielyn]

nice feeders bands on the west side of the storm finally. He's starting to look good.

[weathernerdguy]

it's starting to look like a weak hurricane/strong tropical storm with the convection wrapping around, maybe my prediction for it becoming a hurricane was right...

[hurricanekid416]

It looks like a hurricane I haven't seen a T's with an eye for a long time

[WxEnthus]

Is there not a rule against posting blatantly false information, disclaimer or not? There should be, if there isn't one.

It seems like there should be but many of us are amateurs who love tropical weather but aren't professionally trained and are therefore prone to post wrong info from time to time (hence the need for disclaimers) and the more experienced folks are quick to refute such statements, which can be helpful for those who are learning and will hopefully exercise more caution in the future before making definitive statements. If we were only ever allowed to post irrefutable factual info then very few people would be able to post (including some posts from pro mets) because it's often weighted with our opinion or personal perspective (although some are much more informed and researched than others, clearly).

Without speaking for the original poster, this seems to be a case of being unaware of how coastal storms impact different parts of the CONUS (FL is different than NC) and posting in hasty confidence without thinking about or knowing of the repercussions others may experience. The OP may not have thought of the statement as blatantly false. Many folks think that if it's not a landfall, it won't have any impact. However, preconceived notions or biases that don't jive with experience and data usually get challenged here, rather quickly.

[robbielyn]

that gulf feature looks like the beginnings of an ull heading westward has slight spin to it

[weathernerdguy]

It looks like a hurricane I haven't seen a T's with an eye for a long time

Beryl 2012 had one

[seahawkjd]

Anyone else having trouble accessing the NWS site? I wanted to see what the latest local statement was for MHX / WILM and I can't get it to load.

[UpTheCreek]

Anyone else having trouble accessing the NWS site? I wanted to see what the latest local statement was for MHX / WILM and I can't get it to load.

Won't load for me either.


Edit after 3 min., working for me now.

[wxman57]

I find it interesting that the NHC appears to be only issuing a hurricane warning if the hurricane's wind field is forecast to touch a location (according to their latest discussion). The ECMWF has hurricane force winds passing within a few miles of Cape Hatteras on Friday morning.

"Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch."

Does anyone here know what's up with this? In past years, the entire NC coast would have a hurricane warning issued by now, even if the center wasn't forecast to strike the coast. Sometimes hurricanes deviate from the forecast path. That's certainly a change from previous policy, where hurricane warnings extended a good ways either side of the deterministic forecast of hurricane force winds.

[OuterBanker]

Wxman and others. I suspect that there were no evac orders because there isn't enough time for so many people. NPS (National Park Service) is going to close at noon today. Since most of Hatteras and almost all of Ocracoke island is NPS property the closing of the campgrounds will cause enough traffic problems. Here is Dare County Emergency Management Statement.

http://www.darenc.com/emergencymanagement/

[WxEnthus]

Anyone else having trouble accessing the NWS site? I wanted to see what the latest local statement was for MHX / WILM and I can't get it to load.

Won't load for me either.

Loading okay for me, both the main site and my local WFO.

[NDG]

Looking better.

[WxEnthus]

Looking better.

That's a healthy looking storm! Looks good on radar, too. The recon plane is in the air, I'm eager to see what they find!